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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Bemused

  1. neither - they report "rolling news" as it is happening and focus on the sensational aspects of that news. They dont attenmpt to predict future news. If there is a HPC they will skim the reasons behind it and focus on the "human interest angle".
  2. The European Central Bank has voted to keep interest rates on hold at 2.5%. Rates have now remained steady for two months following March's 0.25% rise. Analysts expect the bank will again raise rates by a quarter of a percentage point in June to tackle any inflationary concerns. With eurozone economies recovering in the face of high oil prices, the bank's president Jean-Claude Trichet has himself already suggested a June rise. Analysts expect the eurozone interest rate to reach 3% before the end of the year, as inflationary pressures increase. The latest eurozone inflation figure for
  3. Devils advocate hat on. Is it therefore possible that the bulls are right. Not through any sound economic reasoning but due to anew paradigmn. Interest rates will be kept artificially low via manipulating the CPI basket. Even though real inflation soars no pressure will be put on wage inflation as skilled workers in a job know that their position is vunerable. There is also huge pressure from immigration. In the meantime mortgage fraud is endemic, well documented and totally ignored. House prices just keep increasing until there are so many imbalences in the system they collapse under thei
  4. You really dont get it. There really is a new paradigmn. The new paradigmn is that things have got into such a mess that all that is left to do is nothing. Just keep still - it may go away and if it doesn't just change the goal posts and "simmer" the books a little. But whatever you do not rock the boat - remain calm and ignore that huge hole and the waves coming over the side.
  5. The press has begun to tentatively report that interest hikes are a real possibility. The news is full of stories about job losses. The labour party are in disarray. The average age of a first time buyer is 30 (the age where the majority of earners have pretty much reached their earnings potential). Yet house prices keep on rising and interest only mortgages are becoming more prevalent. National Debt is reaching mind-boggling levels Is this country now so totally out of control that the government and the bank of England are unable to do anything to put the brakes on as even the slig
  6. The points not VALUE or sentiment it's AFFORDABILITY! I really depair. No one thinks owning a home isn't desirable. Some people just like to live comfortably within their earnings. If peope are being squeezed christ know what will happen as this so called NICE period dissolves.
  7. see my comments on widening of net and the mesh getting smaller ... if any one is interested in these issues Faulcault and also Ben Cohen have written extensively upon the subject.
  8. The problem with widening the net and reducing the size of the mesh is you tend to catch minnows. This is exactly what is happening with the militaristic style of policing in this country. Community ties and co-operation with the police are broken down at the same time as the Police being target and results driven. The end result is that soft targets are increasingly dragged into the system and habitual criminals can not be adequitely dealt with by the system.
  9. Point is that city centre apartments will only ever suit single people or couples with no kids ...
  10. Forgive me if I am wrong but the city centre appartments of friends that I visit on the continent are designed for familly living. They are not shoebox sized and covered in laminate with the kitchen in the living room designed for "luxury living". Mnay continental coutries (such as Spain) also have a resteraunt based culture and city parks that are welcoming to families that complimentss this apartmnent living. Sadly lacking in the UK.
  11. If the main stream press even began hinting at future rate rises it would put the bakes on. Property purchase in the UK appears to run on little more than blind faith in low interest rates and high employment. Even with evidence to the contrary leaking into the news people still believe it. I can see little more than sentiment propping this beast up and believe the threat of rising rates would be suffiecient to start a U-Turn.
  12. IMHO opinion the whole housing debacle is akin to Enron accounting or Nick Leesons meddling with Barrings. It has gone too far for banks, politicians, Building firms etc to apply any form of "fix". The conseqences will just be too drastic and so all logic is swept under the carpet. NOTHING will change until there is a major economic change. It may take some time, but remember you take on a 25 year morgage and are subject to the economic climate over a 25 year period. If people are streaching themselves to breaking point with low inflation and high employment (if our spin meister govt is to
  13. Marina Good Luck. There is no need to petition or organise. Market forces will be the determinant. For all Bull arguaments ask a simple question: Could you afford your morgage on a single income and 5% interest rates. If the majority of people answer NO then the future of HPI is obvious. The site is too addictive and in the west our patience is limited.
  14. US RATES Seems that FED and BOE are starting to see inflation risk to be benign ....
  15. This is why I got fed up with the forum a while back - too many pseudo radical posters chanting the mantra and refusing to accept any reports that contradicted their religion. They then get all defeatist when the facts stare them in the face. I reported anecdotal evidence of the London market picking up. It has been. Yet I was shouted down as a heretic! There will be many rallies and false starts over the coming years - if you can afford a property on one income and can factor in rates of 6-7% and view property as a home more than an investment jump on board now. If this doesn't apply to you
  16. So in short deny empirical facts, ignore economic history and base all arguments on a hyperthetical scenario.
  17. Is that the best you can come up with? It's different this time as it's Blairism and we are all going to be renting houses off the uber-elite BTL class. Jesus I thought a lot of the bears on this forum were deluded but this takes fantasy to new heights.
  18. So pensioners, single income divorcees with a heavy financial buden and immigrants starting a new life often with low wage jobs are going to snap up all the properties. Great in theory but I know many FTB's that are graduates in good careers, yet their combined income is too little to afford a home near their workplace ...
  19. This is my worry. Does anyone have any advice (other than buy gold) about what the average person (who isn't in debt up to his eyeballs) and has saved a sizeable lump sum can do to insulate himself. I am seriously considering moving abroad to work/travel for 12-18 months and moving all my cash to an offshore account possibly in swiss francs. Am I nuts?
  20. If the recent reports from Halifax, Rightmove et al to be believed HPI has hit 5.5% in 3 months and "properties are flying off the shelves". This is against a backdrop of global inflationary pressures in a country that has been warned about its debt level on at least two occasions. Energy prices are rocketing, bankrupsies are soaring yet economists are arguing the need for rate cuts. Am I stupid or is something amiss here?
  21. Personally I think they are amazing (though not if the prices quoted are true) and if the government had any commitment to global warming whatsover all new construction withing the last 5 years should have had to have been eco-friendly. Not as extreme as earthship but at least capable of generating some of their own power and being far better insulated. I also believe that wooden construction houses such as those seen in Sweden and developments such as earthship should be allowed on greenbelt with the proviso that there should be car pooling and a limited number of cars allowed per community.
  22. I work in IT too and your comments definately ring true, the prospects are not looking too rosy for a future in IT and even in the short term wages do seem to be slipping badly. I too have been giving serious thought to retraining - is there any way you can protect some of your cash by working at the same time as training using your current IT skills?
  23. End Of Cheap CDs According to many news reports we have never had it so good. Consumer goods cost pennies and all is hunky dory in the world of inflation. After all we all realise that pensioners don't worry about HPI, Travel costs (they have bus passes), Fuel (they just burn cheap imported DVD's), Council Tax (they just go to prison now where its lovely and warm, rent free and with all meals included). However with the costs of production and export going through the roof due to commodities and energy price increasses, CPI must start to reflect the true costs at some point surely. Retailer
  24. For me there is no single factor that can be held up as the DEFFINITIVE reason for HPI. However I believe that two of the biggest drivers are: 1. The Lax lending criteria 2.Low cost of borrowing Until these areas are tackled I believe HPI will continue in areas that show the scarcity I was highlighting in my previous post. There is already evidence of credit tightening, bad debts and increasing reposessions. There is also evidence of a upward trend in interest rates on a global level So lets just wait and see.
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