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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Bemused

  1. I disagree - the people that lend it to them should!
  2. If they are keen to help you out maybe you could buy the house and be a live in landlord to help cover the mortgage payments? pay them back monthly from the other tenants rents If a few years down you need your own place maybe you could sell it and buy flats - or convert it into 2 flats and let one to cover your own payments
  3. If they were serious about controlling inflation they would have acted long ago. Keep a careful watch on this in 2007 as STR's could quickly find themselves well out of pocket ....
  4. They will do what they usually do debate all the above, waffle about the US slowdown and all the poor ole retailers it will affect and then decide to keep rates on hold.
  5. Ah this is the key issue alongside what level of inflation will be prevailant
  6. Strange how the unprecendted **** up in Iraq is now all the fault of Iran is it not?
  7. Unfortunately not so in my neck of the woods - if rates went to 6% probably.
  8. I get grouchy with HPC as there is a very blinkered perspective here. Without rates hitting 6.5 - 7% (unlikely) or a big recession (possible) prices are very unlikely to halve overnight Its very hard to generalise as there will be big differences in the type and location of the property ("shortage" homes - eg family home good area, good schools and new build city centre flats for example) but I can see the regions sobering up to the fact the market is unsustainable and prices dropping. Without an external stimulus though I do not think it will be a rapid affair. It could taken 2/3 years and
  9. Oh god I forgot how frustrating posting here was compared to theotherplace.com (edit i can not believe that fubra have cencored a competitors website - what does that say about this place!!!) Yes I think HPI will go Y-O-Y negative by end 2007 Yes I think house prices are overvalued Yes I think were in a bubble Yes I think there will be a correction Yes I think it will start in the regions this time not in London Yes I think interest rates will rise but nowhere near enough to keep pace with inflation (edit BOE on the day of the largest rise in mortgage borrowing at the tail end of a huge
  10. I see you have skimmed the post and picked out the bits you want to support your arguament - have you been to realistbear school of posting? Prior to 2005 a drop looked possible. Since then in my neck of the woods property has rocked to around 50-70K increase. By next year it is likely to increase by another 10-20K. It will take one hell of a crash to knock 80K off property in the short term (1 -2 years), unless you are talking protracted falls over several years (which if inflation carries on as it is would decimate savings). No I am not in the South East or London Read the posts I have
  11. Cant comment on the whole country obviously but in the markets I am familiar with London, Bristol and Surrey things are still booming. I really don't buy this whole conspiracy stuff. Obviously the figures are distorted by the obscene costs of and scramble for properties in prosperous areas, but the BBC et al are not involved in some enormous conspiracy headed by Gordon Brown and backed by the mysterious forces in the US as some of the nut jobs here seem to imply.
  12. sure they are either streaching themselves to the limit on any number of stupid mortgage "deals " that are available and commiting themselves to a life of servitude and praying rates never exceed 6% in their lifetime - or cashing in on previous huge gains made in property and taking advantage of very low interest rates.
  13. Ahh refreshing an open mind on HPC! I am of similar sentiments but for slightly different reasons. I will be keeping a close eye on what the BOE does and may have to buy as well (maybe not in the UK) this will grieve me no end.
  14. Could it be that *shock*horror* people really are still buying property? Go on shout bull, awooga, VI, sheeple, but in my neck of the woods property has been going up steadily. It will continue early next year . If rates dont keep rising in response I will buy (though not nececarily in the UK).
  15. Prior to the disasterous decision by the BOE to lower rates in 2005 a healthy correction would have occured. Since then inflation has been growing yet rates are not increasing. (EDIT - significantly). One safe haven is housing. It's stupidly overpriced but in time of high inflation "safer" than cash in the bank. It seems to me that Japan has some time to go (maybe 2 years plus) before they raise rates sufficiently to end the carry trade. Lenders are not "tightening lending criteria" - if anything they are getting more lax. Inflation is being masked in the UK and rates are not being put up su
  16. wrong again I'm closer to 40, STR and remember friends losing their yuppie pads in Brighton in the '80'
  17. Sam How old are you? Do you need a house? Have you considered relocating to another part of the country or emigrating? Just asking as I believe prices are unlikely to drop to the level many here expect - (If they do fall 50% it will be due to a severe global recession and housing would be the least of your worries), I believe that 2008 we may see real falls but without a big hike in rates property is unlikely to drop to the level most posters here expect. Whatever happens you have a couple more years at least.
  18. Ok a off-the-wall prediction: 2007 will start of strong and areas such as London, The South East and parts of the South West in particular will most likely experience strong growth. Towards the middle of the year it will tail off and stagnate. The end of the year will see the land registry go Y-O-Y negative with the regions dragging down the figures. I don't think a full blown crash will happen without big job losses or a large hike in rates (1.5% at least).
  19. I'd remove your mates name, and job title it I were you ... that is if you want him to remain a mate. PS for what it's worth Bishopstone is a pretty expensive area. I know of very few people that own there that are not well paid proffessionals. Check the EA's in shirehampton for a more accurate assesment if Eastern Europeans are buying
  20. Visit the "dark side" my friend - i rarely post here now due to the dogma that is endemic within this cult. lol
  21. Have quite a few friends in the Fulham area - most employed in media/pr - cant think of one thats earning much over the 40K mark.
  22. I would also suggest you check your "fixed" rate because you will find it is not as "fixed" as you may think. Hint check the small print and the APR
  23. Honest answer - you were wrong not to buy 3 years ago. Price falls are highly likely. When they will occur is more tricky to predict. I can honestly not see house prices hitting 2003 levels again. That said if you have popped your cash into a high yeilding investment it could prove far more profitable than housing. If a house is worth the same in 2010 as it was in 2003 then your money could have been working far harder for you elsewhere.
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