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hawkeye

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Everything posted by hawkeye

  1. The article ignores one of the biggest catalysts - Sentiment The theory of economics is an imperfect science, because sentiment plays such a big part in what happens to markets, and forming sentiment is a complex area (i.e Newspaper, T.V, Bears and Bulls). Add the fact that over 50% of the public are now Bears, and the predictions discussed in the article are entirely feasible. As an aside I believe that one of the main reasons that this crash will occur more quickly than in the early 90's is the power of the internet in changing sentiment. All in all a good couple of days of press for the Bears - lets hope the Halifax publish a negative figure.
  2. can you give me the url for alexa - just tried .co.uk with nothing found
  3. Take your point on general housing, but the people that made padstow a london suburb are coming to a village near you!. I go to Dale (as far south west as you can go - every summer). From Northampton it is 4 hours door to door, with only the last 30 miles non dual carriage way. Swanse and more importantly the mumbles is around 2/3 rds of the way. It is a fact that the brits have a love affair with the coast, and anywhere that you can make in a weekend is going to be popular. i am sure you will see property falls, but now that you have been discovered! things will never be the same again. Sorry mate.
  4. Reading through the responses to your question I got to thinking - If the general public accept that house prices have started to fall (and I think via the press that the majority will now hold that sentiment) given a choice - why on earth would anyone buy a house? FTB - No thanks I will wait till prices drop further and carry on renting at reasonable rates STR - see above but rubbing hands with glee whilst viewing deposit Moving up - Ok my house will be less next year, but the differential between mine and my aspirational house will have shrunk - no i'll wait Divorce - see STR (but maybe more interested in security - retail therapy via the housing market) Empy nester/downsizer - This is the only category that will buy as they value security over paying the lowest price. Therefore 2 bed apartments on the coast will hold up, but everything else will plumet! As an aside from our property conundrum, Just driven back from Bremen in Germany today. Lovely city with clean streets, cheap rental properties (no one buys in germany), everyone cycling to work this morning as I left. Everyone spoke or tried to speak english (even the taxi drivers!).. There seemed to be a comunal pride in doing a good job. Have we lost this and just become self centered individualists?. We should be concentrating on wealth creation through making things, and pride in Britain, not jumping on the latest boom, and off the latest bust. Argggg! Do you think I should become a politician - Alan ******* is my kind pf guy!
  5. Northamptonshire - 25% falls needed (400 to 300 K) for a good size 4 bed modern house. I reckon we have had 5% already, and would think that vendors are getting 95% max of guide price - so 15 % to go, but I think this will take all next year.
  6. http://www.hometrack.co.uk/index.cfm?fusea...sitem&newsid=88 Woops they released it a bit early - should be 25th October - maybe it will be gone in a minute so here is a summary Prices down in every london borough wrigglesworth forecasts more drops in Nov/Dec, and minus 5% houseprice inflation in 2005!!!. What is the definition of a crash. soundbites; London bears the brunt of house price falls % of asking price - asking prices down - buyers down number of sellers up - time to sell and viewings up house price inflation Year to date 1.89% month minus 1.1% forecast for 2005 minus 5% FANTASTIC, I love the fact that the report is formated for price rises i.e Rise for month!!!, now looks a bit silly. Rejoice, Crash in progress
  7. Two interesting articles in the Northampton property paper; 1. Editorial called Market thoughts by largest EA in Northampton I cannot enter the text verbatim, but in summary * Bleak prospects for builders mean bargains for buyers * Buy to let investors have stopped buying * Builders need to make sales by year end (bit like car dealers) * Proliferation of stamp duty paid - subsidised mortgage - carpets etc - quoted as price cuts by another name! * Smart New homes website recorded price falls of 2.6% in September * worst hit regions London, South Wes, South east, East anglia, and west midlands * chief exec says we are starting to see real price falls, and builders are anticipating a need to deliver more cuts before Xmas. Offcourse the agent is saying that this means it is a great time to bag a bargain!, what he neglects to mention is that your bargain house will be worth 20% less next year. 2. Connells Newsletter * At last we know which way the market is going. * Since the end of september the market has slowed considerably * sellers will fall in to 2 camps Losers - price uncompetitively - become stale - angry - frustrated - end up not selling and accepting a lower price next year!!!!! Winners - price competitively - negotiate - flexibility - next house will be correspondingly cheaper!!!. Knack is going with the flow, not fighting it. These 2 articles have confirmed to me that the crash has started. Prices will be at least 20% lower by July 2005. Keep the faith.
  8. You are also very smart and pretty . If I was 200 years younger etc.........
  9. The reason you are unhappy is that you would like a nice place to call your own, at the right price, where once completed, you are paying of any loan with an eventual target of owning your own home. What you have is a rental property, a statement from the bank with some multiple zeros on it, an inability to hang any pictures, and a vague feeling of it not being home! You see evidence of a change in the market but want the process to occur overnight so that you can get the move done, get on with your life, and stop visiting this site!. Join the club!. We just have to be patient and see out the game.
  10. Dissapointing news from rightmove etc today. It makes my blood boil that the denial of quasi-official pundits on house price falls, will mean more FTB's in negative equity next spring. I search via Primelocation on a radius of 5 miles from the town of towcester. i look at the results at least once a week. Today it returned 10 houses, all of which have been on for as long as I can recall. here are the factual asking price changes; 495 - 478 495-469 475-429 425-399 425 -399 That is 50% on at reduced asking prices - The average reduction is 6.2%, then factor in 90-95% of asking prices and I think you are at around 10% of April prices. Why is this not reflected in the reports?. It must be because they 'spin' them to suit their purpose - Bearish before an interest rate review, Bullish in between!. Ahhhhhhh! :angry:
  11. Can anyone help me understand the disparity between Mr Wriglesworth's (most aposite name by the way) bullish stance when quoted in articles, versus the bearish titles of the Hometrack market reviews; 'There is more likelyhood of crocuses on the moon than a crash' versus 1. London prices falling even faster 2. Housing market to fall across the nation 3. Sales fall as London market slumps Surely he inputs/authors both?
  12. Within the Northamptonshire region I have noticed that some agents are using Price reduced, and New Price, others are lowering prices, but not advertising the fact (this is quite difficult to spot, and does not help prospective buyers understand that prices are falling). I work in Retail and have to abide by detailed legislation on quoting price reductions, perhaps it is time that EA's are forced to be more transparent about the movement of asking prices. Back to the title of my post - some good and bad houses are selling (well that is what it says on the board/newspaper) suposedly at the crazy inflated prices being asked. Now, what sort of offers are being accepted to close these deals - boy I would love to know because in a stagnant market (which i am sure we are in), what sought of % of the asking price to you need to accept to shift an awkward property?. Which survey will show this disparity in its true light?. On the subject of surveys, can the webmaster look at posting a calendar of who reports when in any given month (similar to the MPC counter). I cannot wait to see the next Hometrack numbers. Finaly, missed a call from strutt & parker today (they had sent some property details and wanted to know what I thought!). I called back and advised them that I had stopped looking for the forseable future due to house prices falling (no denial from the agent!!!). She closed the call by telling me that she really appreciated me returning her call (the inference was that I was one of the few!). Keep up the faith
  13. ZZG -I am off to a more friendly and less scary thread, where I can feed my insecurities. Lighten Up!
  14. Yawn - bored me, but gave me a chance to try out my new avitar - Any estate agents out there?
  15. I am putting my cheque book away. Just finished reading the Northampton Chronicle property pages (which were thicker than the rest of the paper!). There are droves of NEW, PRICE REDUCED, and NO UPPER CHAIN over stickers on houses in the 100 - 250K range. Price reductions and more choice are definitely on the way. Will it be a rout, or a gentle slow down I do not know, but I feel no pressure to buy this side of Xmas. To add icing to the cake Radio 2 (Yes I'm a TOG) reported on the IMF story this morning on the 8.00a.m news. How many people listen to that!!! When it becomes mainstream news things will really start happening. Interest rate cut before Xmas anyone?
  16. Sorry for the duplication, finger trouble!!!! The house is back in the market because the chain broke down. Do any other STR's have an uneasy feeling about having cash in the bank but no property (even if half the property is actualy debt!). I cannot stop myself looking at the property papers. I thought having a cash pile would make me happier, but really I just want to get moved in to a nice house and settle down. Please persaude me to hang on in there! Regards Will like Jelly
  17. Hello all. I went to a house viewing last night with Lane Fox (not with an intention to buy, as I am a STR trying to hold my nerve),so thought I would share my experience; First up, the house had a guide price (not asking price) - This is becoming more prevalent . The charming female agent (not unlike Kirsty!), enthusiasticaly showed me round the house. At the end of the tour I asked her for a view on the market; 1. The Guide price is encourage would be buyers to at least make an offer. The vendors are then taking the highest offer they get, linked to who ever can exchange first. Some may call this semantics, but I think that some vendors have decided to sell at the best price they can get, and as quickly as possible before prices fall. I also think that agents are suggesting this approach to vendors in order to keep some form of turnover in motion. 2. Thing were slow in July and august, but are now really slow (September) (so much for seasonality). 3. Buyers are still looking, but are telling LF that prices are too high! :angry: 4. They have just put a house back on the market at the same price that it was advertised for in May (at the time they achieved a price in excess of the asking price). They are really interested to see whether it will get any interestl, and are using this as their indicator for setting future prices. And I thought there was some science to valuations In conclusion, the correction is in progress - keep the faith and hold out for the bottom of the fall.
  18. Good afternoon, this is my first time in a chat room, so apologies for any break in etiquete. I wiuld like to share my view of the property market in the area in between Banbury, Rugby, Northampton and Milton Keynes. I agred a price of 365K on the sale of my property in May 2004. my relatives thought I was mad, but I just felt that prices had really become silly and it was time to get out. There was also nothing that I wanted on the market, so an element of my decision was just good luck. As my buyer was in rented, we agreed a completion date of August 2004. In the meantime my neighbour (in exactly the same house) went on the market at 400K!. I nearly lost my sale, because I thought of asking my buyer for more. Luckily I did not. My neighbours house in now on the market at 367K, and they are getting absoloutely no viewings. Greed is a horrible thing, and I nearly sucumbed. There are still a lot of vendors out there who are living in a dream world of ever rising prices. Generaly I note that property that was on the market in Spring 2004 is still there, with about 5% reducing prices. All new property coming on to the market this month has been 5% down on previous asking prices. There are also a larger number of 'No upper chain' adverts, and the property paper has become thicker. Price reductions are happening, but with all the money sloshing about in our economy I wonder whether this is a temporary correction 1-3 months at 5%, or whether herd sentiment will drive us in to a crash. i look forward to hours of idle chat in this forum to keep me busy, whilst we await the outcome.
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