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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by hawkeye

  1. Is Phil Spencer finaly turning Bearish? Probably not, but at least he is starting to include some negative news in his articles, even if still says that it is the right time to buy. The one really bullish comment that I find really amazing, is his assumption that the public have accepted that there is NOT going to be a crash. On what research has he based this assumption on!!!!!!!! "The Bank of England is getting exactly what it wanted; the medicine is working. They have successfully manipulated economy and interest rates to slow the housing market without inflicting serious injury upon it. Activity levels remain low. Public sentiment has finally accepted there will not be a crash, however, buyers and sellers continue to look in opposite directions. Sellers are waiting for prices to pick up again at the start of next year and buyers anticipate better deals in the run up to Christmas. There is true in both scenarios. Generally speaking the supply of fresh property to the market is at reasonable levels for this time of year and the very top of the market is the busiest. However, the market is as polarised as ever with different areas and price brackets behaving independently from one another. There are a lot less buyers around which means they can be very choosy about what they buy and how much they pay. The majority of sales agents seem to have adjusted their asking prices to reflect the buyers market but over the coming month, as stock levels begin to dwindle, they will find it tempting to over-value in order to win instructions. We will be monitoring the situation closely. Primelocation's survey of the prime London market reveals an increase to average sales value of +0.6% during October. In September there was 14.9% more stock on the market than there had been six months previously - but in October this fell back by -2.0%. Looking across the entire country October figures record price falls of -0.4% (Nationwide) and -1.1% (Halifax). Whilst these statistics might appear gloomy - let's remember annual house price inflation this year stands at +15.3%. The long-term picture does remain one of growth, albeit at a slower pace. Over the past 20 years house prices in the Capital have risen at an average compound rate of 10% - analysts are now saying long-term growth is likely to be no more than 4 or 5%. Although when you consider that the economy is strong, inflation and interest rates are historically low, the population continues to grow and the supply of new homes remains limited - such creeping growth may turn out to be pessimistic. Whilst numbers and forecasts provide a useful guide (when interpreted accurately!) my personal feeling is that it's not possible to understand property markets by simply delving into the numbers. Housing is a place to live, a roof over our heads, where we live has a bigger impact on our quality of life than any other expenditure. It follows that the behaviour of homeowners doesn't readily lend itself to desktop analysis by academics. My advice is that this winter is a time of opportunity for purchasers who are prepared to hold out for quality and negotiate hard" The article is on Primelocation.co.uk, along with a pretty picture of Mr Spencer!
  2. OK, every week I keep meaning to trog through the property paper and record the number of price reduced, New, and no chain properties in order to convince myself that they are going up. This week I cancelled my aspirational objective as there is no point. Subjectively and Objectively the numbers are now huge. Even better, the weekly editorial comment from the largest agent in Northampton tells of (real prices falls of 5-8% over the last 3 months!), then the usual claptrap about sales only going through for realistic vendor priced property. My only concern is all this talk of the market picking up in Spring. I know, i know it is just EA talk, but I will always be a nervous bear. Lets also hope that Merv's comments have as much impact as last time. Any re-assurance welcome.
  3. Anyone got a link for the NAEA press release. I cannot find it on their website?
  4. Here is another example from a Finance website quoting falling consumer confidence Pessimism is most pronounced in the UK’s southern regions, in particular the South East and South West. Here, following strong house price inflation during the boom, prices have now started to fall in some areas and many homeowners are nervous about how much further they might drop.
  5. Wow! I would love to be a fly on the wall. That has made my day.
  6. Would they really turn someone away if they wanted to put their property on the market at above the recommended asking price?. I would really be interested on any EA view on this.
  7. Imagine how sick you would feel if you have just exchanged on this house and then visit this site for the first time.
  8. Bit rambling, but; Interesting point here is that if 10% of all property is available for rental via private investors- How does this compare to last year - 5years ago etc (i.e is the pool of rented accomodation growing?). Also if 10% is private , what % is non-private and is this extra % growing or shrinking, and who owns it (Government - Pension funds?) As to selling up, in private I guess you have 3 categories * Long term established landlords who will keep their property for income * Amateurs who purchased well before the peak - will want to get out and take the capital gain * Amateurs who purchased recently - will want to sell to minimise losses Hence there is likely to be a big movement to sell which will impact prices. More importantly however, i suggest that the % of non private rental accomodation is quite large and populated by pension funds. These guys will have no compunction in moving out of property and in to equities if they feel they will get more growth. So not only will prices fall, but our pensions will be bolstered by fund managers pushing up equity prices. Nice thought!
  9. I sold in August, for a price agreed back in Feb 04. If I wanted to buy the house back today the asking price would be 20K less. Add in a 5% discount on offer price I have saved £37K. OK lets take off the cost of moving (£5K) and my rent for 3 months (£3K), and I am 29K up. Oh Yes, and I am not paying a mortgage, and making £1000 a month on interest after tax. I make that a net gain of £34K, and its Friday.
  10. I posted it a couple of weeks ago from an EA in Northampton (Connels i think), perhaps the original comes from an EA trade paper! Nice to see it again though.
  11. Reporting on the interest rate hold, the commentators are already talking about prices springing back in January. Does anyone really think this will happen?. By Jan next year we will hopefully of had another 3 months of negative sentiment. This will mean 6 months of falls, so can you really imagine a rush of people wanting to buy in to falling assets? Plus, I think a lot of Vendors have taken their houses off the market due to no sales, and will be putting them back on in the new year, causing a glut of property.
  12. Rise of 0.25% as February rise is out due to early election. House price deflation figures for Dec/Jan can be explained on seasonal adjustment, get the election out of the way in February, then it does not matter anymore.
  13. Northampton Echo Property paper bigger than the main paper!. I would say NEW is the most frequently used oversticker, closely followed by Reduced prices, and No upper chain. All editorial comment saying houses still selling but only if vendors price realisticaly (drop prices!), and that there has never been a better time to buy Ha! Banbuary Guardian Only had a chance to scan fron page before leaving for work - Lead article - House prices fall at the fastest rate for 4 years (NAEA article). Add a Halifax drop as icing on the cake, and I feel like it is my birthday! Blowing out the candles will soon be easier when I have 25% less to blow out!
  14. Surely the BOE will have some advance info on what is coming?. If not as a BOE member I would have to say that they do not want me to know. If they do not want me to know then it must be a rise in prices (which if I had known, would have made me more inclined to raise rates). Or I may just be reading something that is not there. Look out they are watching you!
  15. Important not to set your expectations for a fall, as this will cause you consternation if the report shows no change or a rise. Far better to take in all the anecdotal evidence on this site; * Personal experiences * Stories from other members * Press articles * Council of Mortgage lenders * NAEA * RICS * Reduced and No chain all over the local papers and know that whatever the HBOS report says, prices are falling. I made this mistake with last but one set of Natiowide figures and was genuinely upset for a couple of days. Does anyone think that they might discuss a draft with the government/BOE, or is totaly independent. Also, do the BOE receive requests from the government to raise/decrease rates. I imagine it is lots of conversations between senior civil servants in wood panelled offices, or maybe I have watched to many re-runs of 'Yes Minister'.
  16. Spent a lovely weekend at my parents house. Very chiled out until the wine started flowing and our STR status became the subject of discussion. My parents are fairly sanguine about the whole thing, but my brother is really adamant that we are crazy and gambling our equity. They all believe that things will bounce back, and deny any house price falls. Went for a walk after lunch, looked in the posh agents 5 out of 10 houses reduced in price. My wife is wavering. i have vowed never to mention to my family again (until I can prove I saved 100k in 2 years!)
  17. Whilst I agree with the fundamentals (starts in london ends in the provinces), we need to be aware that remote working is now more prevalent and lets face it, if you could live/work in Devon or London I know which I would choose (am a bit crusty though). Also a lot of downsizers are moving from the SE to the provinces (although I gues this was ever thus).
  18. Spend a bit more money and get a nice rental property on a long deal. We are STR, and have been in a cheapie rental for 3 months and are getting fed up living in a sub standard house, waiting for prices to come down, but they are starting to fall. My wife wants us to go back in to the market, but I will be arguing for a move in to a rental property that is more representative to what we could buy. I think that quality if life is more important that the need to spend an extra £400 a month on a better rental, especialy if you are looking at 6-12 months. The capital saving you will make in paying less for your property in 12 months will more than compensate. And in the end, even if you prepare yourself for it emotionaly, amd financialy, you will feel sick if you know that you could have brought your property 20% cheaper if you had waited a year.
  19. I don't pretend to understand it, but there was some info a while back on where the relevant bookies were seeing future house price levels. Any chance of an update from someone who does understand?
  20. Banbury,Oxfordshire (just in South East). Article in this weeks property paper on Rental Market. Article was like a plea to landlords to lower prices if they wanted to let. The agent was quoting an oversupply via BTL activity as the reason for lowering prices.
  21. In my local rag there are almost as many 'No upward chain' as 'Reduced/New Price'. Before prices started falling I had never seen the term being used. Be interested in peoples opinion on what is generating all the No Upward chain statements is it; (a) STR ( BTL selling up © A nefarious conspiracy by the governement to stimulate sales!
  22. Actualy he vendor is a church institution so not a forced sell - depends a lot on what the agent advises http://www.lanefox.co.uk/2001/properties/d...m?id=LFby170660 If they accept you think I will say No - well have a look at the link. This is an extendable proprty that will split in to 2, 1 hour from London, and after renovation will leave me with no mortgage. So I have no mortgage and the rent (say 600) a month on one property. it is tempting, and who knows, there is so much bearish sentiment out there that I will hang on. just my wife I need to worry about. She seems oblivious to all my advice, and just wants a family home that we can call our own, at an affordable price- Surely not!
  23. HPC members see the Daily Express as our friend, what about this one from the Guardian (just wish they had more readers!). this has got to be the most bearish report I have seen to date. http://money.guardian.co.uk/houseprices/st...1312224,00.html As an aside, put a 300K offer in against a 375K guide price with a top 4 EA. They did not even bat an eye lid. We will get back to you as soon as the vendor returns from holiday on Monday sir, you are 'proceedable' so in with a good chance. Do you know if they accept, I don't know what I will do.
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