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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by hawkeye

  1. What did they pay, and how much did they spend on the refit?
  2. let's hope he did not like the boyfriend - mind you 30 k is steep for a hatchet job, especialy as the daughter will want to do it all again in 12 months - ah kids!!!
  3. Having seen the incredulous news of a 1.0% increase in house prices in November from our friends at Nationwide, I expected a field day of bullish comment from the press. Actualy it's not been too bad; Bearish Guardian Unlimited | The Guardian | House lending figures point to downturn Telegraph | News | New mortgages fall by 40pc in a year Ananova - Property Prices On Alert ThisisMoney - House prices continue to slow Bullish BBC NEWS | Business | House prices recover after falls - even the BBC show a News link as 'Housing market to ease in 2005'. Interesting, is it because they do not believe the numbers? - Got to be.
  4. Wining the battle is not as easy as wining the War!. This is one positive indicator against many negative indicators. Enjoy your day Bulls, because the next indicator will be negative. Personaly I believe it is a cynical attempt to avoid a crash. Would not be surprised if the 'powers that be' had something to do with it.
  5. I'd say not and therefore that prices of goods can only go one way, up and that will increase inflation. [ Can you tell me what impact a falling dollar will have on our interest rates. It looks like the US wants the value to go down, so I guess they will not be raising their interest rates. Does that not mean that euroland and UK will also have to keep rates low to avoid over valuation of our currencies ?
  6. 18500 voters - 40% in favour of a crash, 30% for price drop - 15% no change 5% rise. Based on 18500 ot is not just HPC mob who have been voting!
  7. Link does not work - try http://www.jackson-stops.co.uk/index.html area midlands 300 - 400k
  8. ! Haarts are so incompetent it's unbelievable. Have a look at jackson-stops.co.uk. http://www.fastcropit.com/jss/templates/results.cfm Converted chapel in Byfield (midlands) showing twice at old price 355 and new price 340. You can understand this for a day, but it has been the case for at least 3 weeks. it was originaly on for 375 Ha!
  9. Media quote 2.7M viewers for Dead Ringers last week. Sentiment, sentiment, sentiment........
  10. SSTC - this is because vendors have started to accept offers, but now chains are breaking down as FTB,s pull out. All the properties in the chain need to lower prices to get the FTB back, which is only a loss for the guy at the top of the chain who is selling and not buying. It's perfectly simple, and inevitable. Keep the faith.
  11. Enjoy these tales of house sale disasters They are normal people who do not visit housepricecrash every day. They are obsessed with what is important to them, just as we are on buying a nice house at an affordable price. What worries me is that not one of them seems to know why the buyers are pulling out, when it is so obvious that FTB's are wiseing up and breaking chains. What pleases me is the breadth of the experience. Success is about being in the right place at the right time - their time has passed. You could be really mean and go on their site and post a link to the barclays or Rightmove article!
  12. [ http://www.rics.org.uk/NR/rdonlyres/9C82A7...Oct04public.pdf Don't forget that all these guys have a vested interest in getting house sales moving again.
  13. Look out for the RightMove figures (plus 0.6%) last report. Last report covered 12 sep to 09 Oct and was published on 18 Oct, so we must be due one any day now. I reckon minus 0.5%.
  14. [Friend of friend's has a house with 3 bed off landing , conservatory and large garden for 165K, owner got an offer for 145K!!!! They are fed up with estate agents as they feel they are not helping them and decided not to accept the offer, and keep the house. This is an offer 12% below the asking price. In the RICS survey, EA's themselves mention some offers at 10% below asking price being necessary. Do your friend of a friends think that their house will be worth more next year. If so they are in for a shock!
  15. My local paper (Milton Keynes) One agent has split their properties in to the following categorised windows; Price Reduced Stamp duty paid by vendor Deposit paid by vendor No chain Other (otherwise known as stubborn vendor with no hope)
  16. Depends on your definition of a crash. To me it is not being able to sell your house unless a combination of lower asking price/accepting offers brings the price down 20% below June 2004. Based on people not taking offers in June 2004 (I sold at this time and had no trouble getting full price), I believe that 5% is already an acceptable discount offer price, although some reports in RICS saying now more like 10%, and I believe that asking prices are now 3-5 % lower than June 2004. So only 12-5% to go, which I fully expect to see by Feb 2005. On a £500K house (June 2004 value), a 20% drop will bring it down to £400K - A loss of £100K - Think how long it would take you to save up that amount of cash. For someone in this position - this constitutes a crash.
  17. Great feature from BBC2 Business news. The bears friend, Martin Shankleman (He is an STR) had the RICS news as Number 2 of his 3 business stories. Johnie Walker knows Martins an STR, so Martin introduced the story in an apologetic manner (I promise I will limit myself to 2 house price stories per month ) :angry: Suggested that homeowners cover their ears!!!!!!, then quoted RICS as the best org for tracking house prices!!!! - quoted 41% saying prices are down (which is incorrect, as -41% is the balance between rising - staying the same - going down baby). Anyway, very bearish view, and on prime time radio. Oh Happy Days. I realy think this crash is going to happen in the next 3 months. Its the power of the internet. As an aside, if you read the RICS comments from individual agents you will see that they are blaming the press
  18. Looking through the comments section of the RICS report ( A very satisfying read), there are a large number of comments on Vendors waiting for the spring to put property on the market. As such we should experience some healthy over supply. The problem is that I think a lot of vendors will still be trying to market at September 2004 prices. EA's may use this to say that the market has stabilised, when in fact it will be temporary blip because buyers who would not buy in September 2004, will not pay the same prices for property advertised in April 2005. I guess all I am saying is that we need to expect some pretty bullish reports to come out of EA's in the spring in an attempt to kick start the market (particularly if there is more indication of interest rates having stabilised). We must be ready to 'fight them on the beaches' . Any suggestions on tactics?
  19. If you look at the RICS report (EA comments) it is interesting to see that all though prices have not come down in Wales as much as the South East, the EA sentiment in Wales is lower than any where else (Not the numbers, but the actual sentiment in their comments). London is the only region showing some signs of activity, SEast and Midlands pretty bad, North still in some denial. In between sits Wales where I think (in common with the North) prices have shot up so far that they will have further to fall. So whilst prices price falls in London may only drop a further 5-10%, I expect to see 30-40% in Wales and the North.
  20. Business news reporter (scottish lady, don't know her name) reported that the main story today that would be all over the papers is that Gordon Brown has admited that house prices are falling, and the only properties selling are heavily discounted. Wow! Nicki Cambell then said to her 'So there going to crash then'. 'No, No' she said 'errr well not in my opinion'. Great to hear this being reported on primetime radio. All adds fuel to the fire. I just wish it was February 05.
  21. I get the impression he is off your christnmas card list!. Seriously, I am trying to ignore him, but it is interesting how his articles and many other commentators, are starting to turn round (all be it like a super tanker). When the time comes, it will be interesting to look at an article by him in July 2005, and compare it to July 2004.
  22. Thanks, I had seen that, I was trying to find a full report as like others I would love to know how the minus 1.6% is broken down regionaly. I also seem to recall detailed reports in the past (not sure if NAEA or RICS) where there were sentiment comments from EA's around the country, and details of supply/demand status. Maybe things are so bad that they can only give the headlines!
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