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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by hawkeye

  1. Front page of the property supplement - surprised no one has posted it - what a peach - sorry you will have to buy the paper, although the article maybe online somewhere. Big map of UK, with various worthies predicting where the greatest falls will be -(end of denial?). Apparently the greatest falls will be where the greatest rises have been, and where income is most out of kilter with prices - their smart these analysts!
  2. I bet that you can now rent in a better area, you may even be able to negotiate a rent discount from your landlord (I think everybody should, considering the number of BTLs out there), and your daughter can go to a better school. Jayne, like yourself, we sold up in August last year to make sure we were in catchment for the right school. Just luck that we seem to have sold at the peak, just like it is luck for others 5 years ago who bought into a rising market (er actualy I benefited from that to! - double luck). Anyway we were all settled on the good state school, when my 10 year old son tells me his best mate is off to private school, and can he take a scholarship exam - OK I says (he'll never get it!). You can guess what happened - today he received a letter saying yes!. So we know where we need to be, my wife is desperate to buy, but I am adamant that things are about to go bang. Listen to the anecdotal stuff on here - Read the front page of the property pages in today's Telegraph. It is going to go happen - just got to be patient. I am off now to find a more upmarket rental in which to wait out the next 1-2 years (only mistake we made, going cheap because we thought it would only be for 6months!). Apart from personal timing, I am genuinely please for all those prospective FTB's out there who can now look forward to their hard earned money buying them a decent place to live. I have said it before, the number of people who loose out big time if prices go down, is dwarfed by those that will gain. As you can guess it has been a pretty good day!
  3. Totaly agree. there is a palpable sense of quiet in the EA premises. Loads of EA statements in local press saying activity levels increasing and market stabilising, but no hard facts, so I believe it is just positive spin. I am convinced it is really desperate. I know, because 95% of the property that I have been tracking for 6 months, is still for sale. I posted back in November that we must be prepared for a barage of VI positive spin in the New Year (surprised there has not been more!). We all need to hold tight and win the 'stare contest', when pices start falling. I drive through a village called Blakesley in Northamptonshire. It's lovely and I am always interested when a for sale sign goes up. Today I see a sign outside a building called the 'Telephone exchange'. The structure is about the size of a mobile home, and the plot is the exact width of the mobile home (narrow end on!). There is a small garden at the back, and a bedroom in the attic space. We are talking Scout hut here. How much - I nearly fell of my chair 285k!!!!!!!!!!!. Its mad, and it will change.
  4. NO,NO.NO No No We all know that the market is seriously overvalued and the emperor is just starting to realise that he has no clothes on. Nothing that props up these ridiculous prices is sound. The VI's want lower stamp duty to get the FTB's back in, or come up with ever more tortuous ways to make us borrow more money - It's insane. The sense of panic is palpable - we all see it in the EA's, and hear it when they call us on the phone. HOLD OFF - Buy when you feel that prices are sensible 3.5 X income
  5. [i couldn't afford to buy, I could afford to rent - simple logistics at the end of the day. here is a good example - rent it at 1750 per months or buy at 560K(plus sd etc) with a 600K mortgage, over 25 years, interest only @ £2500 per month. Property still falling, so every 1% reduction is £5,700 of the value of your asset. No maintenance, lower insurance, more flexibility etc. Difficult choice ? http://www.fastcropit.com/jss/templates/de...m?id=jano170097 Honest it was on at 1750 rent up to 2 weeks ago
  6. Here is the graph with Q4 2004 included. If you look closely, you can see the bubble has burst and the downward path to the trough has begun: If you look even more closely,and use a ruler to continue the fundamental trend over time, you end up with a 30% drop from current prices to bottom of the trough in around 18 months. That takes you from 158K to 110K, which is 4.4 x 25K salary. Take off your deposit and add in a lot of couples, both of which work, and you can see this sort of level making sense.
  7. Asking prices are only down by about 5% since peak, but you can bet that it's 5 times harder to sell in a falling market than in a rising market, and that's the thing that the simple statistics don't convey well. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Add in that transaction prices are 7% off asking, and you have a reduction of 12%. Does this constitute a crash?
  8. Paradox in my part of the woods - South Northamptonshire Literaly hundreds of houses/flats on the market (some for 12 months - some sold then back on sale again), no real appreciable sales. Two EA's offering January sales in the local rags. Set against the above, I have not seen a single price reduction since before xmas (I am not sure if the new stuff coming on is lower priced, as the majority is No Chain BTL stuff which is not my target market). I suspect that the agents have said hold on until the end of January, and if things are no better that December (all the evidence points to this!), then start dropping prices. I can honestly say that on my 25 mile commute to work I have not seen a single house go sold, and complete in the last 6 months.
  9. Asking prices down 15%, offers accepted 5% below asking price would do it for me. I reckon we already have 5%, and offer acceptance is rumoured to be 5-10%, so not too far to go. As an STR, my worst nightmare is slow, long price falls of a couple of % a year for many years. We need a short sharp correction in first 6 months of this year. Is 10% out of the question?, when increases have been as high as 20% in one year? When all is said and done, I just want to find a house that suits my family, but that is reasonable value for money.
  10. Surely, helping more housing association tenants to buy shares in their houses, and building starter homes on government owned land, will reduce demand for non-discounted FTB homes. If demand falls, then prices will fall. So surely this is good for HPC bears, not bad. Trouble is that it will take years and years to come to fruition, by which time free market prices will have crashed back to reasobable multiples. So by the teime the policies mature, they wont be needed!
  11. Apologies if already posted. http://www.in2perspective.com/nr/20051/23/...14C8838D47E2CB5 BBA results for Dec show approvals well down on 2003 (25%), and receipts well up on 2003 (10%). No suggestion that new regs are the cause. There is often some good stuff on the in2perspective site
  12. [ The Sunday Times SUN 26 JUL 1992 House prices continue to drop as Major studies rescue plans THE cuts in interest rates have not worked; the mortgage rescue package has failed; and the moratorium on stamp duty has done little to help. What can the government try now to rescue a housing market that seems bent on self-destruction? Just reading through the 1992 press shows how far we have to go!. Monthly falls of 3-4%!!!. The difference this time (IMHO) is that news travels more quickly (via the internet). I believe the market crash, and subsequent rise will be quicker this time round. Jow public is now much better informed.
  13. The latest data from haart shows a dramatic rise in the number of people selling their homes across the country. In the first two weeks of 2005, applicant levels at haart's branches surged by over twelve times to the highest level since July 2004. Here is an excerpt from the article as peorted by In2perspective. If they have it right, you are just goig to get 12 times as many houses come on to the market!. Regardless we all need to accept that the VI's will be pulling out all the stops in the next 3 months to try and persaude punters that things are back to normal. Hold firm! I am keeping an eye on a property I like in Northants. 495K in September, now 445K, 9% offer discount 405K. I make that a 19% saving. This has got to start showing up in the surveys.
  14. just seen it myself. A couple of points; 1. The house they chose had been on for a year, and had had 2 sales fall through 2. They were offering, not paying the asking price 3. In 3-4 months they themselves did not get an offer on their house 4. The program must have been made recently which bodes well for future programs The problem is that they do not seem to have woken up to the fact that it is all too expensive for people coming in at the bottom. Everyone in the chain needs to take 20% off, and the FTB's will come back. Who looses out? Only the guy at the top of the chain, and he the richest one so needs it less anyway. Everybody else in the chain has to take out less mortgage, and the FTB needs less deposit. Having said all that, that last barn was fantastic! As an aside, I was thinking today that increasing property prices are an excellent way for the asset rich (older people) to get the asset poor but able (younger people) to pay for their retirement. To some extent there is a generation split in this. I know that if I was younger I would be well 'pissed off'. My FTB was a 3 bed victorian terrace in Swindon 1991. In the same position today, I would not have a hope. At the time I was on 12K a year (probably equates to 30K now), and bought the house for 52K (4 times income). I estimate the house would be 200K today (7 times income). It is mad, when is everybody going to wake up?. I cannot believe that it has gone on this long.
  15. disappointing, but not surprising. They have to do something to hold the market up and stop it going in to freefall this year. bad news in month 1 would have killed it off for sure. Be interesting to see whether press pick up on 1.1% increase overall, or some of the lows (i.e Wales).
  16. Volumes are low in the area as the same properties are there week in week out, some for months. I see no activity in EA offices. Much the same in northamptonshire - 5-10% of houses with small drops, but nothing sold. This years first property papaer looks like last years. Very little new stuff, but maybe a bit early yet. Feels like sellers and buyers are sitting on the fence!, so it is up to the EA's to get things moving. Connels are having a January sale - I kid you not - prices reduced until 31st Jan. Another agent commentary says that he was alarmed by the lack of activity in Nov/Dec, reckoned prices were to high, said that sellers need to be realistic (all sensible stuff) then he goes on to say that 2005 will see flat prices for first half with rises in the second half!!!!!!!!!!!. I wish I could get my mind on something more worthwhile! Happy New Year.
  17. Just seen todays headline - something like 'Interest rate cut hope for Homeowners' Fairly even article as it mentions price crashes in the same sentence as interest rate cuts, but boy do they exagerate! I quote ' If the BOE slash interest rates to 4.25%'. Anyway, the interesting element was an insert panel article about a 70year old lady who has been trying to sell her georgian pile in lincolnshire for a year. She starts at 695, and is now down to 585 (16% reduction before offers), and cannot believe why no one has 'snapped it up' (Could it be because it is still way to expensive). She wants to downsize to be closer to her daughter. Any sympathy for her? I thought not. Also Mickey Clarke on R5 last night. Persimmon blaming media for scaremongering - R5 announcers saying that's fine but Wimpey news out yesterday shows order book down 10%, and forecast for 25% fewer sales in 2005 - In summary Mickey says that they are just reporting the facts. Is it me, or is house prices quoted every day in the press somewhere - was it like this when prices were rising? - I can't remmember it was that long ago. Also., the BBC have been after me to participate in a program about STR. I have declined as i sold to a friend, but if you want to get involved Elliot Choueka [[email protected]]. Merry Xmas to you all, and remember there are other things in life besides house prices!
  18. Milton Keynes property paper today - New concept announced on front page editorial by large agent chain; They have gathered together a group of commited re-sale vendors, to match the offers being generated by housebuilders. They then show a panel of rather tired looking re-sale houses where the vendors are offering to pay the stamp duty and deposit. Whatever next ! falling prices
  19. Shame houses dont go mouldy you should see my kitchen!
  20. Sorry to do this to you but keep the faith. This is what #29,000 pounds buys you in Nova scotia Canada. This is not a joke!. The price of proprty in UK is however a joke!. Have the last laugh and wait patiently. http://www.thinknovascotia.com/listings/details.asp?key=244
  21. I Know it needs a bit of work, and it is a bit isolated, but this property gives an appreciation of the true value of property when speculation is not present! http://www.thinknovascotia.com/listings/details.asp?key=320 Thats £63,000!!!!! Beware you can waste many hours on this site dreaming of emigration funded by UK HP equity.
  22. My local rag 'Banbury Guardian' arrived on the doorstep this morning. Big surprise, there is no property insert. This sometimes happens with the Xmas edition (last thursday before xmas day), but i have never seen it this early. I can only imagine that demand from agents was too low. This could be because so many vendors have taken their houses of the market until spring (does not really explain it if you look at entries on primelocation - assertahome - rightmove), so my assumption is that demand is so low that the agents do not feel it is worth spending any money, plus transaction levels are so low that they are cutting costs wherever they can. A good portend for December/January price falls.
  23. Two bits of news for us bears; 1. Was contacted by BBC researcher today ref my STR for Money program in Feb. Unfortunately as I sold to a mate I said that I could not help because I would end up on TV and I think I would have looked a bit of a 'gloater'. I must have agreed to being contacted by BBC somewhere on the website but cannot remmember. If you have a story to tell and do not mind it being public, give them a call. 2. Martin Shankleman - Business News radio 2 - Talking about retail xmas sales - I quote (on the slowdown ) 'they the retailers are blaming the housing crash' . This is a direct quote!!!!!!!!!!!!.
  24. Let's face it, most people are not actively trying to buy or sell a house, and therefore they are not paricularly interested in what is happening to prices. If their income covers their loan payments it is no wonder that they carry on spending. I think that people (rightly or wrongly) expect a certain lifestyle (and this varies dependant on your life experience and background). In my case I have always lived this lifestyle despite the fact that I could not afford it for the first 10 years of my working life!, and now i earn more than I need for the same lifestyle, but still adhere to it. Its just life. One comment related to being stuck in a high paid job due to commitments. This me all over, I dream of a life as a self employed electrician or plumber, but will probably grind on for another 10 years to maintain my crazy salary and pick up my final salary pension. I am just middle class and that is all there is to it. Feel free to have a go at me, I am just going through an honest phase!, which will very shortly be over.
  25. HALIFAX NUMBERS OUT - 0.4% drop, and predicting 2% drop next year. Ohh I'm dead excited! See it on BBC website
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