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hawkeye

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Everything posted by hawkeye

  1. Surely the amount of property has risen by 15% since 1996, so transaction levels at the same rate, mean that LFL we are well down.
  2. A lot of Bullish messages coming out recently. My view is that this will be the same as Spring 2005, where naturaly as one of 2 main annual windows for buying property (in before Summer, and in before Xmas), some houses sold. The VI's are clutching on to this seasonal uplift (just as they did in Spring 2006), and reporting it as the turning of the market. I did not buy it then (although I was worried), and I do noy buy it now. Look at the graphs from previous years and you will see that even in the crazy years of HPI, prices drop in Nov-Jan. Add on to this zero prospect of an interest rate cut, growing job losses, rising inflation, more taxes, a cold winter, and the concern over bird flu, and I am looking forward to some more bearish KPI's throughout the winter. Only time will tell who is right and who is wrong. Personaly, I think we are in for 2-3 years of zero to single digit price falls, whilst inflation erodes the price barriers, and the economy continues to grow but at a much slower rate.
  3. I have seen drops over 20% already.. Here are 3 examples of houses that have been on the market for more than 6 months 1. Green Norton, Towcester, Northants (Largish modern detached) Started at 495K, now 430K - still unsold 2. Blakesley, Northants (Builder refurb of a victorian detached house) Started at 670K, reduced to 595K, and just sold (cannot wait to see the price it sold for!) 3. Large cottage on Byfield, Northants Started at 495K, now down to 450K, still unsold. These are real price drops, and demonstrate the real state of the market. There has been a mini-flurry of sale activity in October, but I think it is vendors finaly accepting long standing low offers (before the xmas wasteland), so this should translate through in to VI figures.
  4. They also made a very bearish editorial in this weeks northampton propert rag.
  5. [i think you will find that the huge amount of new build activity (and associated promotional deals - not price cuts you understand! ) will drive down second hand values. Notwithstanding the above, there is probably a two tier thing going on here Dinkie's in good jobs buying 5 bed super exec homes - not really impacted (although there have been a few redundancies recently) Under belly of low paid clerical jobs who will be impacted
  6. "although UK volumes were down, prices on legal completions in the UK were unchanged" "Gross margins in that order book are, however, lower than those achieved on legal completions in the first half, as the impact of sales incentives is greater. Operating margins will be positively impacted by better overhead absorption" So with an average 5% discount via incentives that will be a 5% cut in net prices then YOY
  7. Doh! just seen it in the blog, but hey it is worth reporting twice
  8. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4692213.stm At last, the BBC acknowledge a Rightmove report, and just as annual price change goes negative!
  9. Should I read anything into the Halifax June numbers timing. I am sure someone said they should be out today. Could they be good, and therefore they want to announce after interest rate meeting. Could they be bad, and they want maximum effect tomorrroww morning?
  10. Many have the view that as more people rent rather than buy, that rents will go up. My own experience is that I pay #1100 a month for a 4 bed semi-detached cottage in a pucker village in warwickshire. Worth bartering, as originaly advertised at 1400. The house was last sold in earl 2005 for 405K so as a % 3.3, although I think I have rented well.
  11. Thanks for your help guys. I think I will give my landlord a months warning before contacting enviromental health. Need to be a little careful as we are 3 months in to a 6 month term. If I am too agressive he may not renew which would be a real pain, as the family are now nicely settled to see out the crash!. On the other hand it is summer, I am paying #1100 a month, and I would like to enjoy the garden without a whiff in the air! What do you reckon?
  12. surely she has done us bears a favour, by flagging up to consumers that house prices are under pressure, and on the way down! I don't suppose she used the crash word?
  13. The soakaway in our rental does not work properly, so when you get heavy rainfall it backs up and floods the patio with a not too sweet smelling gunge (not sewage, but effluent from washing machine and dishwasher). My landlord purports to be making progress on a fix but I want to ratchet up a fix. If I give him say 1 months notice for the start of the fix, and we get 1 month down the line, and we are no further forward, can I withhold a portion of the rent say 10%, until the work starts. Any ideas would be appreciated.
  14. In the hardcopy FT - Reservtions down 22% on same time last year, despite their being 11% more sites for sale. Then there is the normal VI rubbish about indicators looking good over next few months. sigh............
  15. I know we are looking at different ends of the market, and my worries must be minor compared to your own FTB situation , but here is my recent experience. I placed 2 offers in March this year; both in Northants 1. Rambling house in poorish condition been on for 18 months at £499K, offered £405K - politely refused, and no attempt by agent or vendor to negotiate. house is still on at 499K!!, 2 years on. 2. One church authority sale on at 375K, offered 300K. Politely refused, some negotiation, as advised that existing offer for 345K. Sold at 8% discount, although they may have got more off post survey. A few sales of property that I have been monitoring (which has has been on for at least 12 months)have occured in the last month. IMHO, they have at last accepted longstanding offers well below asking, as I cannot believe that buyers have suddenly become more bullish (based on all the noise in the press about house bubbles). They stay under offer for a considerable time before becoming sold, indicating that either chains are long and complex, or the vendors still hope a better offer will come along, or maybe both) Right now I would expect a 10% discount on a house that I love, and 20% on one that I would take or leave. I hope I do not find the house that I love before Xmas, as i think the market direction will be crystal clear by then, and I expect it to be down. My complication is my family who want to get established, and think my concerns are evidence of the onset of senility!. Unless there is real evidence of price drops in all the HPI indicators by Xmas, they will make me do it!.
  16. Can anyone really imagine a market with no change in prices for 7 years!. It does not happen this way - Look to London for a lead (minus 3% on the year), this should be more like 10% by the end of the year, and 30% by 2007. It's just like a supertanker, the helm is hard over, and she is more than half way through the turn!
  17. Are there any english version websites where you can see japanese property for sale. I am just nosey, and would like to see what you get for your money!
  18. . Is there anywhare that sales are actually up or close to even? Not Northamptonshire YOY Oct-Dec 32% down YOY Jan-March 46% down lets hope the trend continues!
  19. Absolute opposite! There are 18 properties for sale on my way to work - They are still for sale 2 months later ( Northamptonshire). Went to Chatsworth yesterday and same thing on road from M1 to Matlock. Nothing is moving now.
  20. This is good news! 1. More FTB's who would love to get in to the market will have a more affordable solution (even if they only own a mortgage on a portion) 2. These FTB's will not be buying overpriced new or re-sale properties, allowing open market prices to fall further. As an aside, in the small print of his mortgage deal he talks about 20,000 more home owners by 2010. That is very few people, and a long way off. Most of these will be on the NHS land developments. Don't think it will have any immediate inflationary impact on prices.
  21. I am renting at 4 bed pretty cottage at 1100 pm in a lovely village about 10 miles to east of leamington. Advertised at 1400 (you need to negotiate). Try Finderskeepers, Jackson stopps and staff, and lane fox.
  22. Great editorial in the property section of the local northampton rag (107 pages!!!!). Quotes 4 articles 1. Signs are all positive (full employment etc) but not backed up by activity 2. Local buiding analyst - builders opening up new sites quickly so that they can meet sales targets and sell at a price linked to what they spent on the land (i.e. before the crash) - quoted as expecting 10% fall over 2 years - all very bad news for resale vendors. 3. Nationwide analyst saying 2% annual growth by year end - yeah right! 4. RICS chairman saying most people don't think the 25% predicted crash will happen - even talking about it makes it more likely! The tone of them all was very bearish, and quite a few price reduced properties from last year. He Ho and of we go - Only a matter of time.
  23. what kind of evidence are you seeing of a recession looming ? how about the front page of the Independent! Seriously, it can be seen in flat/falling Like for Like sales, tighter budget control, recruitment freeze, and discusions on how to process job cuts if necessary. Just as in a rising market, every increase fuels the fire, in a falling market, every bit of negative news puts more water on to the fire. This is one of the downsides of capitalism - markets have to move - no change, is not an option.
  24. Greetings, i have been away for a while. (Lost my password, and moved house). I am now on my second rental, and am living in a lovely cottage, for a monthly rent well below the mortgage needed to buy it. I STR'd in August 2004, and have had my doubts over time as to the wisdom of this decision but now I am certain it was right. My big worry was the spring bounce but after reading the rightmove and rics reports for April, I am happy as larry. I am looking (sort of) in south northants villages. I actualy hope that the special house does not come up in the next year, as I reckon we have a good 15% to go. I also feel that I could buy my house back at least 5% less than I sold for. So that will be 20% in 2 years - well worth 2 years of rental. There is a two tier market now. Those houses on at last years prices, some recent instructions, some a year old (not selling), and a second tier of realisticaly priced (relatively) new instructions. reality is starting to bite. I strongly recomend that you hold out for 12 months. I work for a big retailer, and let me tell you a recession is on the way.
  25. everything has a price - if the vendors accepted offers at 10% below the asking price, this a good sign. A lot of places around me (northants) go under offer for literaly 6 months, but never convert, because there is no mug available at the bottom of the chain! 10% of offers accepted in feb, means that asking prices are 10% lower in March
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