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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Imp

  1. We were taken to see a house as soon as the EA had received an instruction, as was somebody else. It was sold before the weekend was out (we even had a little bidding war, but both us and the other couple were offering around 20% off, this went up to around 19% off in the course of a week). The other couple bought it and a few days later it appeared on Rightmove as SSTC - I guess this is advertising for the agent. Good houses are still selling if the vendor will accept a low price, but it was interesting that two almost identical offers were received so far off the asking price.
  2. I'm picking up the same in both Buckinghamshire and Cardiff with both estate agents and mortgage brokers, as per my post below. Linky Edited to add: In the interest of house prices crashing, we need some volume as otherwise there won't be any falls.
  3. I've got 1k with ZOPA. It is not a short term investment, as your money can be tied up for 5 years, but the returns are good, I've had no defaults yet (in the last 6 months) and everything seems to be working okay. Like others on here, I am slowly withdrawing my money as the risks now seem high. Listings seem more risky, but they are an interesting place to go to see what people are getting loans for, and I was one of those silly people who made a ridiculously low rate loan because somebody said they were trying to make a go of their life.
  4. Standard advice for finding the best BTL mortgage advice is, as the clock strikes midnight the night before your appointment, take twelve black cockerels and slice their throats in the town square. Lay them out in a circle, heads pointing inwards and recite the address of your house twelve times backwards. Take the entrails of birds to your mortgage broker who will study them to identify the best mortgage for you. Once your house is on the market the same actions should be repeated every full moon until it is let. Plenty of other BTL landlords will be in the town square doing the same. To evict a tenant, you should do as above, but lay the birds in a circle with their heads pointing outwards, and recite the address of your house forwards twelve times. The next day your tenant will have left the property.
  5. I just had my 45% off peak price offer accepted, and in two months will be the proud owner of a semi, with big garden and garage. (The garage is important to me, as some of you may remember, I already spent one of my house deposits on a Mk 2 Jaguar).
  6. We went to see a house that the estate agent hadn't told us the price for. We loved it, and made them an offer well under the asking price which we could afford. It was refused (but only just, an extra £5,000 got it for the next buyer).
  7. I woke up this morning to find e-on had visited the block of executive apartments I am currently renting a flat in. The freeholder or their agent has run up a bill for £30,000 and they are going to cut off his electricity, which will mean no intercom, smoke alarms, lighting on the stair wells, and no exit from the car park (electric gate). It will feel just like a 1960's council tower block.
  8. http://www.landlordzone.co.uk/forums/showt...holding+deposit Check out the first post on the above link for some ideas on how effective non-refundable deposits are.
  9. I remember see 4 bed houses back in 1992 in the Welsh Valleys which I could have bought on my credit card, and I was a graduate fresh out of university then so my credit card did not have a huge limit. Wish I had bought one now.
  10. Thank you to Moosetea for giving me a link to historical SVRs. I have use the Halifax SVR and reproduced the graph, attached for your enjoyment. This now gives a more reasonable 24% fall in house prices before we reach stability. Good night all, Imp
  11. I was making an assessment of house prices and when they were likely to crash using a criteria based on an affordability. I took the house price, worked out what how much a repayment mortgage over 25 years was going to cost and divided that by the average wage. Both the house price and the average wage are arbitrary indexes so the result is an arbitrary number. I have re-plotted the graph recently using the latest December figures for the BoE base rate and house prices. I have carried the October salary figures forward to use in November and December. The graph only goes back to 1990 as that is when I could get wage figures for. Previously I have used data going back further in the past, but couldn't find it. The graph is attached. The radical fall in this index since September this year is a result of the house prices falling and interest rates falling. Between February 1993 and March 2003 this measure stayed around about 15. This appears to be a natural position for this index. I recall, but can't prove, that before the late eighties boom, 15 was again the natural position for this index. If interest rates stay at 2% then house prices need only fall around 8% before this index reaches 15 once again. Any rises in the interest rates will mean a larger house price fall is required. This assumes that mortgage rates follow the BoE base rate. Currently they are following the LIBOR. Using this higher rate will result in a larger house price fall being required before index reaches 15. Please note, this is purely a sharing of information, not a recommendation to buy a house or otherwise.
  12. I would be careful, some people have found that if the landlord does not have the building society's permission to let the house, then the building society does not have to honour the tenancy if they repossess. They are evicted by the building society. If they fancy it, they have a civil claim against the landlord for breach of tenancy, but as he has little money this tends to be a futile claim. I would suggest your wife sister (she's from Wales, right :-) ) does her own research, possibly using Citizen's Advice and Shelter as a starter.
  13. Having got over the personal criticism from people who don't know my personal situation, The points in my first post stand. The estate agents I have been speaking to, both in Buckinghamshire and South Wales have said there has been an increase in activity in the last two weeks. The comment from a South Wales estate agent was that "It feels like a proper estate agent's again, I haven't had a break all day". Granted, they have lost a lot of staff in the past year, but even their three remaining staff at this branch have been idle until the last couple of weeks. The receptionist for a mortgage broker I spoke to this week said there has been a big increase in people making new inquiries in the last week. There have been blips and troughs in the last year which I had noticed, around the stamp duty debate, and small increase in activity in early November which came to nothing. Throughout all this time, houses have been selling. Anything which was good value, well presented and out of the ordinary would be sold within two or three weeks of being on the market. Most other houses have hung around for 6-12 months so far. My opinion is that that people were initially worried into doing nothing by all the bad news about the economy which they had been hearing, but after 9 months of this they have decided nothing has happened to them yet, and have become insensitive to the bad news. If they had plans to buy a house, they still have plans to buy a house and so are starting to look again. Pointing to the trailing indicators for volume of mortgage approvals - the BBA mortgage lending figures - to disprove what I hoped would give you a leading indicator really doesn't really hold water. Let's see what the BBA figures are for the next two months.
  14. The chairman was brave. It's not something you want to say to a bunch of construction works after a skin full.
  15. I remember those happy days when the housing market was discussed on this board, and it was a refuge for the contrarian thinkers. People critcised the arguments, not the person. Now the whole world seems to believe in a house price crash, the contrarian thinker is looking for his opening back into the market. Edited to add: Just had a quick look at the dates of all those who criticised me, and realised non of them joined HPC.co.uk until it was blindingly obvious to everyone that something was completely wrong with the housing market and we were going to see falls in prices, basically, they are the so called "sheeple" who have just followed the crowd.
  16. I've been looking at houses on and off for about 9 months. This weekend I found on I liked and put a tentative offer in. (This is the background, don't start all the stuff about not buying). Anyway, the last two weekends, estate agents have been busy and haven't had enough staff to show us around at weekends. I phoned a mortgage broker today to sort out a mortgage in principle for the offer and the receptionist said that they had been really quiet and then the week before Christmas everything had picked up again. I'm not saying the crash is off, just that we might start to see volume picking up again in the first couple of months of next year.
  17. If it's a family it might be worth while paying 3 months rent up front, or even six, as it gives greater security of tenure. If you pay 3 months in advance, you have to be given 3 months notice to leave if the landlord wants you out. There is the risk of the house being repossessed, so it's a case of weighing each side up. I would ask to see proof the landlord has permission from the mortgage company to let the house out though.
  18. There is the "Name the Game" approach when people send snotty letters. You could write back "The tone of your letter could suggest you try to use the tenants' ignorance of the law and their right to peaceful enjoyment of the properties to carry out inspections at times which are not convenient to the tenants. You are more than welcome to carry out an inspection of the property at 8.00pm on *** December, a time which is convenient to me. I will have ready a list of minor problems with the property I have noticed and we can discuss and agree an action plan for correcting these problems, complete with delay damages if you fail to complete any by an agreed date. Yours sincerely, Tomlad" Although that could have you put down as a problem tenant and get you evicted. Don't you just love English law?
  19. We are actually onto our second bust under the MacBroon watch. Has everyone forgotten the dot com boom and the dot com bust?
  20. Just remember that the agents are the landlord's agent. If the agent takes money from you and offers services to you, then a conflict of interest arises. Therefore, when ever you pay anything to the agent, you are actually paying it to the landlord, so even if the agent goes bust, you could chase the landlord for reimbursement. This is not legal advice, as I have no legal training, but if it all goes wrong, I think you wouldn't be left completely high and dry, just mostly high and dry.
  21. How come everything this goverment does will do the exact opposite of what they say it will do. New build first time buyer houses are a separate market from the pre-used first time buyer houses. The prices on these new builds are falling at a faster rate than anything else. The problem with new builds is that it doesn't form a chain. This has taken thousands of buyers out of the first time buyer pre-used house market, where they would have supported the purchase and sale of other houses all the way up the chain. Instead they are buying something which is no use what so ever to the rest of the market, other than to deflate turnover, reduce the number of chains which can form and will reduce the value of pre-owned houses even further. Silly silly silly darling.
  22. God forbid I am stereotyping, as a man I tend to be completely underwhelmed by things which are a danger to life and limb. Recently I had a slight accident with a pot of methylated spirits (don't ask) which ended up catching fire and also leaking. I just calmly picked the thing up and put it in the nearest saucepan and put the lid on, and wrapped a damp tea towel around it for good measure. Similarly, in rented houses I have had electrical sockets and bulbs spark and blow up. I just went and turned off the electricity and sorted the problem out. Only the other day I had a small fire under the bonnet of my car. I looked, saw what the problem was and stopped the fire. These are the kind of thing I've seen women panic about.
  23. It may not be a bad price. I put "The Street Ightham" into my House Price Normaliser, which corrects using the Halifax house price index and another factor to allow for local variations. On that street upper quartile price is £960,480 Median price is £442,162 Lower quartile is £370,832 This is based on 18 house sales in the last eight years. The Normaliser would normally indicate a sale will take place for a house with these stats.
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