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About ronaldo

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    HPC Poster
  1. The fact that banks are, in a lot of cases, requiring 25% deposits is due primarily to the Basel II and Basel III requirements as opposed to their opinion on the future of property prices.
  2. There’s no point in talking about evidence because, obviously, noone has evidence – only opinions. The housing market will turn long before the evidence you are looking for is available. It’ll start with an increase in the quarterly NI RPPI, which, the bears will highlight as a blip as opposed to a turn in the market. It’ll be followed up by multiple quarterly rises at which point the question becomes – how many successive quarterly rises do you need before you would consider it verifiable evidence? I’m not saying that the above is going to happen in 2013, or even 2014 – but it will happen. There is no question in my mind that, when the prices eventually do turn around, there will be people on this site for another 1-2 years arguing that we are not yet in a bull market. If prices did continue to drop at current levels over the next 2 years, you’d probably be looking at a 75% or so drop from peak after inflation is taken into account. I know that prices were overvalued at the peak. My question is, do you really think that they were 300% overvalued?
  3. Do any of you have any predictions for 2013 for the housing market. I think there is the potential for a 10-15% drop but feel there is an equal chance of prices being broadly similar in December 2013 as they are in December 2012. This is from a semi-detached/detached perspective. I know that, as of the end of September, detached prices were 8% below their Q1 2005 levels. The comparable figure for apartments is 29% below Q1 2005 levels. However, I feel that apartments still have a way to go due, in part, to their exorbitant management fees. At the moment, I'm starting to see value in some detached/semi-detached properties in my area. In my opinion, anyone buying at a 10% discount to what they believe to be current market values shouldn't do too badly - in particular if it's a home as opposed to an investment. However, I've been reviewing apartment prices in Belfast again today. I don't view apartments as a long-term solution for a family but, rather, they're ideal for someone looking for the 'city life' whilst they're free and single. So, given this, it begs the question - why buy an apartment when the estimated costs of moving home are somewhere in the region of £5,000? You are likely to have a change of circumstances within 5 years - meaning average moving costs of £1,000 per year (this is solicitor, estate agents, removal company and other costs). The above is true, in particular, for 1-bedroom apartments. That being said, there probably is some logic in someone who buys a 2-bedroom apartment with the intention of keeping it as an investment when they move to a house - but only when prices come down a little more. To put some figures to the above, lets assume that an apartment can be bought for a 25% reduction on current asking prices. This is pretty feasible considering you'd easily buy one today at a 10% discount to asking and there could, potentially, be another 15% drop next year. With that in mind, you'd be looking at this apartment for £125,000 (below the stamp duty threshold). If I were to buy something like this, I'd consider living in one room and renting out the other for £350 per month under the rent-a-room scheme. As someone that doesn't own a car, I'd consider renting out the parking space as well which would bring in at least another £50 per month. Add to this the £350 per month that I'd pay if I were to rent out a room in a similar apartment and you get £750 per month to throw towards the costs of ownership. The monthly cost of the apartment management fees and rates would be about £160 leaving £590 for the mortgage. A 25 year mortgage of £112,500 (10% deposit needed) with Danske Bank costs £570 per month at the moment. After 5 years of this arrangement, your outstanding mortgage would be a little over £97,000 and, unless prices are further below current levels, on a nominal basis, you should be able to secure a pretty good rate on your mortgage (given the LTV). In my opinion, the figures above make it a reasonably good venture - just about (and that's assuming a 25% discount to current asking prices).
  4. Don't worry about house prices. You spent the last few years watching house prices and are now in your first house, and a 3-bedroom detached at that. You have started out in a property that would normally be someone's second or third. Right now, your main concern is interest rates because they're the only thing that will make a difference to you over the next 5-10 years. What sort of a mortgage are you on (fixed, tracker, etc.)? Whatever the rate, concentrate on getting down to a lower LTV so that you can remortgage to a cheaper rate as soon as possible. My intention is to get down to 60% LTV as soon as possible, switch to a cheap tracker and then sit back and relax.
  5. The scheme isn't as good as it sounds. You get allowances of 25% of your interest bill up to €5,000 a year in allowances - earnings don't come into it so it doesn't matter what your tax rate is. That means, to get the full allowance, you need to have an interest bill of €20,000. At AIB's interest rate of 4.24%, that would require a mortgage of €471,698. Therefore, the total reduction on cost price of a house, assuming a 10% deposit (a €524,000 house), would be 5.7%.
  6. Whilst I'm under no illusion that I'll be able to retire at 35, I do believe that it should be possible to retire at 55 - and I'm on slightly less than the national average wage. I'm 29 now and my state pension age will be at least 68 - and probably more by the time 39 years pass. There's no way I intend to work until that age. My plan however, does involve buying a house. I'm in the process of signing contracts on a 4 bedroom house in a reasonably nice area at a LTV of 67%. I intend to pay down the mortgage until it's 60% LTV and then move to the cheapest available Lifetime Tracker Mortgage available at that time - on an Interest Only basis. To rent a similar house would cost £600 per month but an interest only mortgage would cost £320 per month if base rates rose to 3% (I know they'll eventually rise above this but so will rents and so will inflation). This cheap accommodation will allow me to maximize my pension contributions. I'll be putting 24% of my salary to the pension and my employer will contribute 6%. I'm a lower rate tax payer but am in a salary sacrifice scheme where the employer donates their national insurance savings to the plan so giving up £100 salary results in a gross pension contribution of £167. Using this calculator, I'll have to use 40% of my 25% Tax Free Cash lump sum to pay off the mortgage. I'll then be left with the remaining 60% in my bank and an annuity of 38% of my final salary (in todays terms). The remaining 60% in tax free cash can be used to live 'comfortably' until my state pension kicks in - at which point, I should have a total income (state + private) of about 65% ot my final salary. Just writing this post makes me realise how little people are saving for retirement - most in my company have a total contribution, including employers, of 6%. If I were to work to state pension age, currently 68 for me, I'd end up with a final annuity of 96% of my final salary (in todays terms) and would only need 15% of my lump sum to pay off the mortgage.
  7. And, according to the nationwide report, the average overall figure is 3.9. According to the CML statistics, there were 19,000 out of a total 49,500 mortgages given to FTB's. Their income multiples are lower as I believe they quote based on mortgage amount as opposed to purchase price. Assuming that FTB's represent about 40% of the market (based on the CML statistices), the average non-FTB purchase price should be as follows: 40% of sales are at a 3.0 multiple The average sales are at a 3.9 multiple Therefore, the remaining 60% of sales should be at a (40% * 3.0) + (60% * 4.5) = 3.9 So a non-FTB is paying about 4.5 x £23.4k = £105,000.
  8. So according to the latest quarterly report, the index stands at 93 - down from a high of 199. Based on the drops in local asking prices in Derry, I would expect the index to stand at, or near, 90 for the quarter ended September 30th. Inflation from 2007 until now appears to have been 4.3%, 4.0%, -0.5%, 4.6% and 5.2%. That means we're very close to your 75% figure already. However, as you say, wage inflation has been low in a lot of sectors.
  9. Congratulations. I'm in the process of buying myself but, as you know, it's a long, drawn-out process. Just reading a few of your past posts and it's funny how things change. I'm moving from the Republic of Ireland to Derry but have a cousin who lives about 30 minutes outside Belfast. Back in 2006, he had a small, 5% deposit and bidded at asking prices on 4 or 5 properties. He was outbid on them all, gave up and upgraded his car. He's still living with parents but I can see him moving to a place of his own in 1-2 years (talk about a lucky escape). So what's your strategy with regards to a mortgage? I'm on an initial 2-year discounted mortgage and will be debating whether to fix or go for a cheap tracker at the end of that period. I reckon the banks have priced in a profit margin to the fixed products and that it's most likely that, unless you really need the comfort of a fix, a tracker mortgage is the better choice together with as much overpayments as possible.
  10. Yeah, there seems to be a few companies starting to come out and make purchases these days. I'm not familiar with most of them but I suppose it makes sense in a way. As a limited company, you could just declare bankruptcy as a worst-case scenario but, should you time it right, you'd end up coming out of the crisis in an EXTREMELY good position. A calculated risk so to speak.
  11. I think that a good way to determine whether a particular apartment would be to determine the management charges and ground rent on the apartment. Then calculate how much of a mortgage those charges would service on an interest only basis at, for example, 2% above current rates. As an example, let's assume the management charges and ground rent works out at £1,200 per year. Assume an interest rate of 6% and that £1,200 would service an interest only mortgage of £20,000. Then add that extra value to the price of the apartment - in this case, it'd be £149,950 + £20,000. Then look at houses you could get in the area for that increased value and decide where you'd be willing to live for, at a minimum, the next 5 years. For some it'll be the apartment. For others it'll be the house. As an example, would you prefer to live in the apartment in your first post or this house. Of course, your answer will depend on, amongst other things, whether you plan to have children in the future, etc.
  12. Even the Republic of Ireland has a registry that went live this week, and they're usually a mile behind everyone else: www.propertypriceregister.ie In fairness, the layout of the website is rediculous. You'd wonder what sort of IT people the government hire. Although to be honest, I'm happy with the new property price survey in Northern Ireland. With this, there shouldn't be much need to know the sale price of individual properties.
  13. Do those of you that are staying out of the market have a target entry point at all? For example, the 20 most quarterly recent changes in prices - starting from 2007 and ending at the mid-point of this year - are shown below. If these reports were available back then, some people may have been fooled back into the market in 2009 when the prices leveled off, or rose, for 9 months. As I have just negotiated the price on my house, the next report will mean little to me - as it only goes up to September and I know I've got a discount on my house based on current prices. It's the subsequent reports that will be more relevant to where the value of my purchase is heading. I know of people that bought that say that property prices don't matter as long as the house suits them and the mortgage is as affordable as renting. However, it obviously does matter because, if prices drop, your choices of products to remortgage to is limited but if prices were to rise, you'd be looking at hitting a 60% LTV sooner which would allow you access to the cheapest of mortgages. If you get stuck on a SVR due to little or no equity when a mortgage deal ends, you could be stuck on, for example, Bank of Ireland's 4.49% SVR. If you are at 60% LTV, there are lifetime trackers currently available at 2.64%. This is a significant difference and represents almost £200 per month on an interest-only £125,000 mortgage. -5% -7% -7% -9% -8% -10% 2% 0% 0% -2% 0% -3% -5% -6% -2% -2% -3% -4% -3%
  14. I don't tend to believe the average salaries quoted in the media but know that new graduates start at my company on around £20,000. An example of a modern house in a good area at 4.5 times that salary would be 61 Glenvale Park. Of course, the multiple would be more like 4 for a person with a 10% deposit. This is for a 3-bedroom semi-detached, modern house. Of course, cheaper alternatives are available but I just wanted to show you whats available at that level of a multiple. I'm working with our company quite a while now so my salary would be a good bit higher - as is the house I'm in the process of buying. However, I've got a 25% deposit and my mortgage multiple is closer to 3.2 times salary. This is for a 4-bedroom detached, modern house.
  15. Just saw this on the Belfast Telegraph. It looks like they're planning on 44 apartments. It's interesting that the original purchase equated to a site cost of over £45,000 per apartment and the current price represents a cost of just over £10,000 per apartment. Obviously, one would expect these apartments to be built using the latest, most-efficient building techniques and that the developer will be able to off-load them cheaper whilst maintaining a reasonable profit. Chichester Street
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