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Thames Ditton

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About Thames Ditton

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  1. Hi Piltdown Man, Thanks for your reply to Andy T regarding emloyment. I am thinking about retraining as a rocket scientist The Urban Decay in Blackpool is almost unique, almost... because there is also Morecambe. I think it is to do with the tourism industry suffering and then bringing in people on benefits to fill the hotels. This is certainly how it happened in Morecambe. There are probably a whole host of other reasons too. I think Great Harwood is safe from that level of decline. I would do a lot of research before choosing an area to retire too. For instance Whalley is going to change a lot, it has around 550 new builds that have been approved, a further 50 in the planning permission stages... developers are winning all the battles, despite strong local opposition. The long term plan has a further 1,500 homes earmarked for Whalley and 500 more in neighbouring Barrow. You can see the impact on a google earth satellite image here. Clitheroe is having similar issues, so be careful if you want a home with a view! Thanks for the link to housepricesio. I am in the middle of building my own house prices analysis and it is true I haven't adjusted for inflation yet. I am wondering if you can help me with a conundrum.I am having a conversation with myself and I am hoping you can help. What extra information does adjusting for inflation bring? Money tends to lose purchasing power over time anyway. The chart that is inflation adjusted gives a more dramatic effect. And I also agree that the effect is real. But is it relevant? If you are comparing houses that have been equally affected by the same level of inflation? It could be relevant if you have an alternative way of saving cash that is inflation proof? I am pretty sure most people don't have that. In fact I can't think of many ways an average joe like me could hedge effectively against inflation. (So far I have thought about Foreign Exchange, Precious Metals, taking on more debt or perhaps a clever basket of shares - but none of those solutions is really satisfactory for me personally) Also when we analyse house prices we are usually doing that in real time (ie today with the value of the £ in todays terms). We might have been able to buy more with £1 ten years ago... but what can we do about that now? The purchasing power of the £ is what it is. If we borrowed £1 ten years ago that might be a different story. Here's hoping that you can take apart my reasoning and convince me that inflation is important here. And if you do I will adjust my analysis. Its not a difficult thing to do, I am wondering about the analytical value in doing so. Have a good day Best regards Thames
  2. So you need to click on the chart above to enlarge it.. Am I the only one that doesn't get how to add images here? Any help would be appreciated, Thanks Thames
  3. I hope this looks better... I have been struggling to post the chart and table
  4. Hi Andy T, Yes the Stamp Duty threshold should put a dampener on it, but you would be surprised at how many people are prepared to pay more than £250K to live there: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detail.html?country=england&locationIdentifier=REGION^96741&searchLocation=Brockhall+Village&propertyType=1&referrer=listChangeCriteria Someone even paid £3million. Photo's are no longer on line unfortunately... It looked a bit like the Clampett's Beverley Hills home. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detail.html?country=england&locationIdentifier=STREET^1504300&searchLocation=Franklin+Hill&propertyType=1&referrer=listChangeCriteria As for what jobs these people do I have no idea... I wish I did know though, I should be retraining! See below for a table of average prices for detached houses on the development since 1995. They busted through the 250K Threshold in 2003 and are still comfortably above it despite sliding 13% since 2007. Region (All) Town (All) Type D Village BROCKHALL VILLAGE Street (All) Number (All) Postcode (All) Row Labels Average of Price 1995 95,000 1996 155,000 1997 126,172 1998 145,968 1999 163,382 2000 204,869 2001 197,515 2002 241,866 2003 289,591 2004 325,873 2005 373,000 2006 371,873 2007 387,929 2008 379,679 2009 388,143 2010 382,958 2011 369,583 2012 360,900 2013 366,455 2014 339,633 Grand Total 284,685 Best regards Thames
  5. Hi Piltdown Man, I just don't know about the supermarkets. I would say that it is on the edge of the Ribble Valley and house prices are much more affordable in Great Harwood than in the Ribble Valley itself. So the most probable explanation is prices are being propped up there by its wealthier neighbour. Good Schools have a lot do do with this. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2734932/Parents-want-send-children-best-state-schools-face-paying-500-000-extra-home.html I am not sure if Great Harwood is in the catchment area though, it would be worth checking this out if you can. Although it might not be an easy commute to anywhere, Great Harwood is at least served by the M65 with good links to Manchester, Preston, Liverpool, Lancaster and the Lake District all within an hours drive. The Forest of Bowland, which is an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty is only 20 minutes away. Whalley is a much more desireable place to live, but it is much more expensive and harder to get to the M65 from there. There is lots of development planned to go ahead in Whalley and one of the fears is increased traffic congestion making it harder to get to the motorway.Save Whalley Village Also Great Harwood suffers less from the stigma's attached to its neighbouring towns on the M65 corridor Accrington, Blackburn, Burnley and Nelson. The North side of Great Harwood is very green, the south side and the centre should be avoided IMHO. I would say that the last time I went to Great Harwood was in the 1990's too. I used to enjoy playing chess against the town team who were based in this pub. Decline is everwhere unfortunately. In the North West, the Ribble Valley seems to be the region that is suffering least of all. Its funny that you mention Brockhall Village because I have three theories forming about that. 1. The decline in value of the properties there seems to be linked to the decline in fortunes of Blackburn Football Club who I believe have a training ground there. 2. The decline in value of the more expensive homes at Brockhall Village are perhaps pushing down the values of other homes homes in the surrounding areas. 3. I believe there is a Management Company that looks after the communal areas in Brockhall Village, and there is also a residents association and the two don't always see eye to eye. I think this could be affecting supply and demand on this development. Compared to many other properties in Brockhall Village this one seems to be good value (although still very expensive) 159m2 bought for £312,500 in March 2006, New build sold in December 2003 for £245,000 It has been on the market for quite some time and hasn't sold yet, although clearly empty. Thank you for prompting me to speak about the North West, I think we should be a bit more active on HPC in Lancashire. Best regards Thames
  6. I caught this little gem on the BBC website yesterday morning. I laughed, I cried and then I felt like sharing it with you guys & gals. 07:11 DE LA RUEMoney printer De La Rue said pre-tax profit for the year to 29 March rose 37% to £59.8m. The company is selling more security products, and banknote paper at a higher price. Looking forward, the company says it has a "good order book." The future is bright, the future is more printing! This might push asset prices and inflation up as more money chases the same level of resources. At the same time, faith in the value of fiat currency is further eroded.. It would be very interesting to see that order book.
  7. Sorry guys... I know its not a laughing matter ... But this really does sound like the "What have the Romans done for us?" Thread. If you knew the market was as rigged as this would you enter? And if so... Would you be smart enough to play it and win? Or would you just walk away? It's a conundrum Thames
  8. I believe we are back to the Mania phase, media attention. Government intervention has brought us back here. The roller coaster will be faster and flatter this time around, but the new bubble has some way to inflate before it crashes again. Look at the year on year increases in the 1980's 1990's and 2000's. A couple of percentage points higher than long term exponential growth is sustainable in the short run after the 2007 crash. Greater london long term exponential growth is around 7%. The bubble periods lasted years and were much higher than 10% yoy for anywhere between 3 and seven years. I hate to say it but i think they will be able to continue inflating until after the general election. There will be no interest rate rises before then...just lots of hot air! All the better for keeping that bubble expanding. a bit of tikering around the edges to make it look like they are doing something at least. Then the mother of all hangovers quite quickly after the election. Winning the next election will be a poisoned chalice. I found the historical figures i am refering to here thanks to housepricecrash.co.uk http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/globalassets/documents/media/economic-insight/house-price-tools/regionalhistoricalhousepricedataq12014.xls The difference this time around is that it will be smaller percentages on larger base figures and the cycle will be much shorter. I have been lurking a long time.. And i defer to the superior knowledge of the regular posters I am looking forward to hearing your riposte. Best regards Thames Ditton
  9. Good Article, Ladder Street is a good way of presenting the issues. I do wonder why all the media focus is on house prices (not just in this article)? Why is there so little broader discussion about house quality?The quality of housing stock is an issue too. On ladder street i imagine 5 of those properties might be too small to swing a cat, 5 more would be in the badlands, and 10 might be well over 100 years old and in need of some serious refurbishment. 5 more might be buy to let... There might be 27m houses in the uk. But few are of truly saleable quality. This has the effect of pushing prices of good quality homes ever higher... And poor quality homes lower. Overall it could be pushing the average price of all homes slightly higher. What do you think? Thames
  10. I have just noticed that we can download the July 2012 csv file from the Land registry website. http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/public/information/public-data/price-paid-data/price-paid-data-files Have fun Best regards Thames
  11. I remember watching a program about massive negative equity on this area of Bristol in the 1990's They renamed "Bradley Stoke" with the spoonerism "Sadly Broke" looks like the EA's might be up to their old tricks, it will be interesting to see if the locals fall for it again. Sadly Broke...20 years on fool me once.... shame on you, fool me twice ....errrr.
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