- what will happen to the Spanish economy in the medium term:
Now our first worry in the medium term is the unemployment, and people and press is very pesimistic.
In Spain we can´t reduce the unemployment until we grow around 3%, and the forecasts for the next years don´t reach these digits. We have a unemployment rate of 24,1% and about of 600,000 families without any type of unemployement pay.
But this real unemployment is less than the employment rate, because we have a lot of black economy. This is mitigant of the social effects of the high unemployemnt.
Other problem is the economic estructure, we have a few companies that are able to compete in value, and the rest only can compete in costs and with the strong Euro we have an important problem.
In the past we had this problem, and we devalue the Peseta, but now we don´t have the control to do this type of monetary policy.
The last important problem is that we are a country without budgetary surplus, if you plus this we have a negative balance of trade, you will see our economy isn´t sostenible and infinanciable.
In my opinion the out of the crisis to my country, has to come of the international side.
- whether Spain will need a bail-out
The opinion is divided:
-We have people and press, that think that Spain is too big too fail and if the markets think that Spain will need a bail-out, EZ is going to break up. (This opinion is less strong every day).
-The rest of people, think that Spain is doomed to a bail out, and now we are in the last weeks/months before this.
Now with the interest yield between Spain and Germany ten years bonds in 535,62 (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/!SPN:IND) and the need of 23 billions to rescue Bankia, the bailout is more next than ever.
In my opinion, a bailout could be "good" to Spain, because we need a lot of reforms to be competitive, and the politicians are doing a few recoveries and very slowly, we need to change our economy, because now every minute we are more nearly to be an African country than a developed country.
- whether the euro will survive:
Most people are sure than the Euro will survive, and with a strong ECB is more probable than the Euro is going to survive, but the problem is Greece, if the 17 of June, Greece exits the EZ, the euro will be stay in a real danger.
Yesterday was a new about the "Ibero", it could be the new currency to Spain and Portugal, we have hearsay but they are only this.
If you have any doubt more of you don´t understand anything ask me please.
Tomorrow I will continue answer the questions.
