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Renewed Investor

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Everything posted by Renewed Investor

  1. I'm not saying it is definately gonna recover, just that I believe it will after a while. I'm only ever 10% invested in any asset at the most, so if I'm wrong then no big loss, I've got other stuff on my plate.
  2. I love when the commodities do this! Capitulation at it's finest! A thousand boots kicking you in the nuts! It's like 2008 all over again. I bought then and I am buying now. I was shorting all day yesterday, they were practically risk off trades. £1000 in a few hours is a new record for me. I'll be short scalping Silver again today. I'll go long this summer though, probably May/June. Don't try to time the bottom, just buy in increments and take advantage of all this fear and panic selling. Commodities will be in the toilet for a year or two which gives plenty of time to accumulate.
  3. Emptying my savings account tomorrow, closing it in fact. I had planned on doing this for about a year now but never got round to it. I am sick of 0.1% interest.
  4. I understand the scepticism. it's hard to believe anything you read on the internet regarding some subjects. All I can say is that there are people who make consistant profits. I know one guy making $20K - $25K per week on a $1 mil account who came from literally nothing. Granted he has 50 years experience behind him but still, he is what convinced me that there is more to trading than sheer luck. The closest comparison I could probably make would be Poker. Is it "luck" that the same people end up in the finals each year at the WSOP championships? Trading is not for everyone. It takes a certain mindset, a lot of patience and perserverance.
  5. 1.) It's too psychologically straining to play the game like that, emotions run high. Only a sociopath would stand a chance of keeping level headed with an aggressive compounding strategy. Just look at the threads in forex forums for people who have tried this, it always ends badly. 2.) Big boys don't have to, they just often choose to because the cost of borrowing is minute and more capital = more profit. 3.) My examples incorporated losses. The gist of my post was that you need a strategy and the discipline to stick to a strategy. Back test strategies and then forward test ones that worked in backtesting via a demo account. If the strategy still works in demo then try it live with a small amount of cash.
  6. You're assuming I aggressively compound my wins, which I don't. Aggressive Compounding very rarely works out. To demonstrate how I would play it as a newbie starting out here is an example. £ starting amount is not a recommendation, just an easy number for demonstration purposes. £1000 equity with strict money management. - Average of 1 trade per trading day. - 2% risk for 4% profit (% of total starting equity) - Trading method is 60% successful - 20 trades per month brings 12 wins and 8 losses Account equity grows in total to £1320. I would not compound this yet and just stick to the 2% of £1000 starting equity. Assuming the trading method is consistant we can continue to trade like this. I would keep this up for a further 6 months, at which the total account equity stands at around £3240. At this point I would withdraw the £1240 so that no matter what happens I have not lost my initial deposit, in fact I have a profit no matter what. This does wonders for your mental health in trading. Now your account equity is £2000 of what you could call "free money" which again leviates stress. So now we apply the trading method again but to this larger pot of equity. £2000 equity with strict money management. - Average of 1 trade per trading day. - 2% risk for 4% profit (% of total starting equity) - Trading method is 60% successful - 20 trades per month brings 12 wins and 8 losses Account equity grows in total to £2640. Again, do this for a further 6 months and take profit off the table again for piece of mind. This is all very possible, I know people who do it every day. My stategies vary depending on the type of trade but I can confirm this money management system works. The trick is, and it is definately easier said than done, is keeping a level head. If you feel yourself getting too down about a losing streak or too euphoric and careless from a winning streak then log out and go do something else to ground yourself before you do something stupid and break your rules..
  7. The real trick to it all is money management. The most I will ever risk on any one trade is 2% of total account equity. My reward/risk ratio is either 2:1 or 3:1 depending on how I view each potential opportunity. As my accoutn grows I will no doubt shrink the percentage that I risk though as the £ amount does affect your thinking as accounts and trades get larger. Read the following to get started in trading: Market Wizards Trading in the Zone Come into my Trading room Mastering the Trade 95% of traders lose because they are not mentally prepared to deal with the euphoria and distress that each trade has the potential to drive you to. You need to discipline yourself and gradually ease yourself into trading. Start with a demo account, preferably one that does not expire. Once you have found a technique that works for you over what you deem to be a reasonable time period (for me it was 3 months of consistant results) then open a live account with a small amount of money. I started my live account with £200 on 100:1 leverage. My rule was that I stick to my method, never risk more than 2% per trade. Every month I would add £200 to the account and gradually increase my £ amount per trade without exceeding the 2% risk limit. Don't ever risk more than you are comfortable with, Gamblers get nowhere in this industry. Go for many small wins over a lengthy time period rather than the big wins that double your account or so. Try to stick to one sector too or one currency pair when starting out too. This is just to prevent information overload in your mind.
  8. 1.5% per year? What's the point? That's a negative return. People need to learn how to take control of their own savings. I took a portion of mine and currency trade with it. I'm averaging 1.5% per day, not a year. Look into it, you can do it tax free here in the UK and don't need a fortune to get started. Practice with a demo acoutn first though until you find a method that works consistantly for you.
  9. Market's Fed Reaction "Could Be Worrying Sign for Gold" as "Bear Stance Supported by Price Move" link "SPOT MARKET gold prices looked to be headed for a third weekly loss in a row Friday lunchtime in London, after failing to break above $1700 an ounce, while stocks and US Treasuries were little changed on the day, with no signs of progress from Washington on the so-called fiscal cliff. Silver was also headed for a third losing week in a row, trading around $32.60 an ounce for most of this morning, as other commodity prices gained slightly. "A lack of activity has kept precious metals largely unchanged this morning," says today's commodities note from Standard Bank. A day earlier, gold dropped back below $1700 an ounce Thursday, despite the US Federal Reserve committing to $45 billion a month in Treasury purchases the day before. "The bulls were making the argument that the central bank would remain easy, at least until 2015, helping provide an element of support for gold," says a note from Ed Meir, analyst at brokerage INTL FCStone. "The bears countered that there would not be any additional easing in the pipeline between now and 2015, and also pointed out that the Fed did, after all, outline specific targets at which point it would start shrinking its bloated balance sheet...Thursday's action seems to have supported the bearish stance." "It is perhaps a worrying sign that the latest installment of QE has had no positive impact on gold prices at all," says a note from investment bank Natixis."
  10. Gold's Comex Drop "A Test of Downside Interest", Fat Finger Trade "Not to Blame" for Selloff link "Gold fell more than $30 an ounce in an hour Wednesday, dropping 1.5% in just a few minutes. Gold trading volume on the New York Comex futures and options exchange was more than double its 250 day average, according to Reuters. Silver also fell Wednesday, with Bloomberg reporting the highest silver Comex volumes since May 2011, although silver rebounded more quickly than gold and was back to within a few cents of its pre-crash level by the time US markets closed. "[Yesterday's move] puts our bullish view into jeopardy," says Scotiabank technical analyst Russell Browne. "We shall shift to neutral should support at $1705 be broken." "We don't think anything has materially changed for gold," adds a note from UBS."
  11. "Mathew Martoma, age 38, was arrested at his home in Boca Raton, Florida, early Tuesday morning by the FBI and charged with insider trading. U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara, whose face appeared on the cover of Time magazine last February as the “man who is busting Wall Street,” was positively joyful in announcing the bust: The charges unsealed today describe cheating coming and going — specifically, insider trading first on the long side, and then on the short side, on a scale that has no historical precedent. " link
  12. Bundesbank Sold Gold "Just for Commemorative Coins", Silver Industrial Demand Forecast to Rebound in 2013 link "We believe that the German Bundesbank's sale of 4.2 tonnes of gold was intended solely for producing commemorative coins," says today's commodities note from Commerzbank, referring to International Monetary Fund figures published Wednesday showing October's buying and selling of gold by central banks. "By its own account, the Bundesbank keeps 7 tonnes of gold ready each year for the production of coins, gold which it sells to Germany's Federal Ministry of Finance. In October 2011, the Bundesbank had sold 4.7 tonnes of gold for this purpose." Silver hovered below $33.50 an ounce this morning, like gold holding gains from Wednesday, as oil prices ticked lower and copped gained. Industrial demand for silver is forecast to rebound next year following an estimated 6% drop in 2012, according to a report by precious metals consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS published by the Silver Institute.
  13. Eurozone Enters Recession, Worldwide Gold Demand Down in Q3 link THE DOLLAR gold price drifted lower to $1720 an ounce during Thursday morning's London session, around ten Dollars down on the week, as stocks and the Euro also drifted lower following the release of weak economic growth data from the Eurozone. The silver price dropped below $32.60 an ounce, more-or-less exactly where it started the week, while other industrial commodities edged higher. "We like the price action of silver and think there is a good chance of another leg up," says the latest technical analysis from bullion bank Scotiabank. Prices for longer dated US Treasury bonds meantime ticked lower this morning, as did prices for German bunds, while longer-dated UK gilts saw gains. The Eurozone fell into recession in Q3, according to official gross domestic product data published Thursday.
  14. Gold "Living Up to Safe Haven Reputation", Fiscal Cliff Policies "Will Reduce Value of Stocks" link "Gold is holding up well in the face of Dollar strength yesterday and today," says commodities strategist Walter de Wet at Standard Bank. A day earlier, the Dow Jones saw its biggest one-day drop this year on Wednesday, falling 2.4%. The S&P 500 also fell 2.4%, the biggest one-day drop since the start of June, as focus shifted to Congress's prospects of avoiding the so-called fiscal cliff of tax cut expiries and spending cuts currently scheduled for the start of 2013. Policies aimed at avoiding the fiscal cliff would mean that "the marginal income-tax rate is probably going to go up...from 35% to 40%, capital gains from 15% to 20%, dividends from 15% to who knows where," Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer at world's largest bond fund Pimco told Bloomberg Tuesday. "And ultimately if dividend and capital-gains tax rates go up, then stocks are worth less and that's what you’re seeing." In contrast with stocks, gold prices rallied yesterday after an initial drop at the start of US trading, holding onto most of their gains for the week so far. "Gold is displaying relative strength and living up to its reputation as a store of value and a safe haven," says this morning's commodities note from Commerzbank.
  15. Gold has been trading lower as it follows the US Dollar appreciation," says Bayram Dincer, analyst at LGT Capital Management in Switzerland. "Gold is still range-bound, lacking any upside drivers above $1725 an ounce. The lower range of $1700 is perceived as a good support." "Market focus switches to this week's US non-farm payrolls data [on Friday]," says a note from Barclays Capital, which cites $1698 as a support level for gold prices. link
  16. "Pause in Monetary Policy" sees Gold Drop Below $1710, Germany's Central Bank Told to Inspect Overseas Bullion link "Over in Germany, federal auditors said yesterday that the Bundesbank should regularly inspect its reserves of gold bullion held at the central banks of the US, UK and France. Press reports suggest the central bank may begin shipping gold held at the New York Fed back to Germany for inspection." This could be a turning point if Germany are not happy with the quality of their gold.
  17. Institutions "Losing Enthusiasm for Gold", ECB Bank Supervision Plan Could Be Illegal say Lawyers link "While [gold] holds below $1758 the risk is to the downside," says the latest technical analysis report from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta. "The path of least resistance for gold appears to be lower," agrees HSBC analyst James Steel. "Institutional investors give the impression of losing enthusiasm for another challenge of gold's $1790-1800 price levels."
  18. Gold Drops Below $1750, Bernanke Defends Monetary Easing, Germany's Merkel Promises "No Uncontrollable Events" in Eurozone link "We traded through lots of stop [losses] this morning," said one trader in Singapore, after gold began the week by dropping more than ten Dollars to $1742 per ounce, its lowest level in nearly three weeks. Like gold, silver bullion also fell during Monday's Asian session, touching a five-week low before climbing to $33.33 per ounce by lunchtime in London. "The failure to break above the March high at $37.47 is disappointing," says Scotia Mocatta's latest technical analysis report. "[but] the long term uptrend remains in place with support at $27.75."
  19. "Faltering market confidence has led to capital flight from countries on the ‘periphery’ to the core of the euro area. This has meant higher borrowing costs and a growing wedge between the economic and financial ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’." Capital markets investors and bankers have known about these problems for some time, but the IMF has upped the ante with a public statement from a major organization about the extent of the problem and its immediate danger. The banking system in Europe will not be badly damaged in the future — it is already badly damaged. Link Glad to see that they are at least finally admitting that the system is in a really, really bad state right now. Thing is though they do not seem to understand that they are the problem and that their "solutions" are not helping at all.
  20. Dollar Strength "Temporarily Stalls Gold", But "Gains Ahead" with "Conditions Still Favorable" link "US Treasury bond prices gained this morning, in contrast with those for UK and German government debt, which fell along with the Euro. A day earlier, the volume of gold held to back SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the world's biggest gold ETF, hit a new all-time high at 1340.5 tonnes. "Though the market conditions are still favorable for gold, liquidation of long positions may push the metal lower," says the latest note from refiner Heraeus. "The demand for investment bars continues to be steady," it adds. "
  21. At the end of the day it is a combination of monetary crisis, government failure and years of unsustainable consumerism.
  22. It's a strange situation for sure. I predict future economists will look back at this period as "WTF-enomics". There is little if any sense to this mess.
  23. "The annual rate of inflation across developed economies rose for the first time in a year in August, driven by a sharp rise in energy prices, a development that may narrow the scope for leading central banks to shore up faltering growth through additional stimulus measures." link "The data on euro zone factory-gate prices in August suggest the inflation rate could rise further from its September level of 2.7% and a decline to the ECB's target of just below 2.0% is likely to be delayed."
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