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House Price Crash Forum

Renewed Investor

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Everything posted by Renewed Investor

  1. Not sure how safe I would feel getting in a driverless car. One glitch and you are hurtling toward a wall at 60MPH. They will need some kind of manual override at least. Plus I actually enjoy driving, I've never understood how some see it as a chore or frightening.
  2. I am still in the Trade, should probably continue to flirt with this price range for a little while before dropping. Only thing stopping a drop at this point would be an unexpected event such as Putin doing something wild.
  3. I am short Silver right now, got my first fill at $16.79 and the second at $17. If you read the Fed minutes it is actually bearish for the metals and then if you go to the daily chart it looks like the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern forming. This spike looks like a bull trap to me and if the jobs numbers are decent this week they will pull the rug causing the next leg down in both Gold and Silver. Gold should retest $1325 area and silver the mid $14's.
  4. Look at the top 5 performing types of store. That spells it all out. If you were asked to guess which country those stats came from without any further knowledge from the article I bet most people would be listing Eastern European nations.
  5. I am literally on the verge of giving up, not just on home ownership but on this nation altogether. My gut has been saying get off this continent altogether for the past year. I think I need to seriously find a way out. JUST LET THE DAMN HOUSING MARKET CORRECT ITSELF!!! AFFORDABLE HOUSING = MORE MONEY IN PEOPLES POCKETS TO INVEST, SAVE AND SPEND INTO THE BROADER ECONOMY. IT WOULD BE IN THE NATIONS BEST INTEREST! As for those who bought at the peak - tough titties, you can't always win. If I buy XYZ stock and it falls 50% from where I bought and I end up in deep doo doo do I deserve to be rescued by Government schemes that keep me out of financial trouble? No! I take the hit and face the consequences of my actions. What current home owners want is to be exempt from financial losses because they have put all or most of their eggs in one basket.
  6. Encourage diversified investment instead of throwing every penny you can borrow into property. Also restrict mortgage lending to 3 x annual household income. Just 2 ideas to get the ball rolling.
  7. Manager is a very loose term nowadays, it's usually added onto the end of a job to justify the higher ups passing on the responsibilities they are not too fond of onto people that would have normally been doing other things. I mean a friend of mine is basically a sales assistant at JD Sports but he is classed as a floor manager because he took on the role of processing Sales data at the end of each day as well as helping out customers. He's on £8 an hour.
  8. It's just a part of British Culture to have a bizarre fetish for rising property prices it seems. If modesty were not also heavily engrained into our culture I imagine estate agent offices would be filled with boomers and speculators draped in PVC and ball gags frantically fapping themselves silly 9 - 5 and Property Valuers would have their business cards in phone boxes alongside the local escorts.
  9. Of the Millionaires I have known I'd say they share the common trait that they were rebels. By that I mean their contempt for collectivism, big government and such drove them to be entrepreneurial in the pursuit of freedom. By Freedom I mean reaching the point at which they can say "F*** You" to the world and do what they want with their lives. So with this outlook on life they will only pay the minimum amount, there is not the attitude of "we all must pay through the nose for the greater good" that many people seem to have. They pay the minimum legal amount to keep the tax man off their back until they can retire.
  10. I went Short the GBP/USD back on wednesday. I can personally see the exchange rate at 1.40.
  11. If that is not the signal that we have a property bubble I don't know what is. I think I may throw down some carpet in the shed and list it as a 1 bedroom cabin. £124,995 OIRO, Ideal first home for the vertically challenged and the stupid.
  12. Here you go my friend. Using my old and now defunct News website account. https://twitter.com/D_F_News/status/555053804631379968
  13. What follows the crash is just a doodle really, I have no idea where the market would go after such an event. Double tops tend to signal things are over for a while but we all know how the Government likes to intervene.
  14. As speculators and even Government intervene and leverage up the market, wages have failed to keep up. Sooner or later something has to give, and Batman says it is upon us.
  15. Another friend of mine bought a home over Xmas. His parents and his girlfriends parents gave them the money for the deposit as their Xmas gift.
  16. People want to be the best they can be and leave a good fortune to their heirs. I knew an ex-floor trader that worked the Chicago exchange who after amassing over $25 Million in the commodities market decided to retire for a decade or so. After a while though the boredom of retirement lead him to starting a new business venture in agriculture and he started trading again (with his own private money though this time, not on behalf of a Fund or Bank). Many of those with the brains needed to amass millions simply cannot switch off. This friend I mention here told me that the last few years of his retirement were filled with bouts of depression. Setting targets and exceeding them is what pulled him out of his rut. It was all about facing the challenge and building something of value that drove him, the money came as a derivative of the work he put in. I have no idea of what he is worth now and I wouldn't ask out of politeness, but I know he has done very well.
  17. Dumb money applies to small funds as well as the retail investor. There are tonnes of these small funds that go through booms and busts each year. As to little money, that is correct but don't forget that when the market is this thin it does not take a huge amount to move prices. There is still plenty of cash floating around in retirement funds and mutual funds.
  18. My point was that fundamentals are pointing to a reversal on the horizon whilst for the meantime "dumb money" seems to be pouring in thus keeping things going for the short term. So a blow off top is expected and then fundamentals force a reversal whilst "dumb money" takes the hit later in the year.
  19. There is growing mania for US Assets right now due to the Euro and Yen devaluation. i only expect that to get worse for the first half of the year until the Fed are forced to intervene and weaken the USD before the import and export market goes kaput. Right now it appears to be that people, even the "crash is just around the corner" perma bears are starting to believe that the market will just go up for ever or at least for the next few years. When this "dumb money" piles in the Banks that are keeping this bull market climbing will start pulling out towards the end of the year I think. If the Banks are allowed to drop lending standards in the USA next year then the Banks will look to move back into mortgages en masse instead of bidding up the equities back and forth amongst themselves. So that is a stripped down reasoning from me.
  20. You can usually tell a bubble by looking at a chart of price moves. If that fails, look for fundamentals and ask are they still valid. The stories used to promote whatever asset that is in a bubble tend to get more far fetched as time goes on. Another sign is that when it becomes too easy for the average joe to make a good profit out of it. back to charting though, I was discussing the Ruble on another forum and was using the Silver bubble chart as a comparison tool to point out that going long the USD against the Ruble was probably not a smart move at that point. Here is the chart Sadly I couldn't short this as my Broker removed the Ruble from their trading platform :angry:
  21. I am expecting the DOW and S&P to climb 25% next year. Dont forget that run up years to elections are full of optimism and the market is already irrationally optimistic. So 25% run up to a blow off top and then a dead cat bounce around Xmas time is what I am expecting for 2015. 2016 is the year that the bubble gets dumped onto the next President IMO. Also, the market is fairly cyclical. It tends to take a nice dump every 8 years or so. In the mean time I am picking up some Jan 16 Calls with the intention of dumping them around Autumn at which point I will roll half the profit (assuming I make profit) into Calls on one of the leveraged inverse DOW ETFs.
  22. I'm seriously starting to think that we will not get a housing crash until the last of the baby boomers die off. I mean the majority of voters are over 50 and this demographic holds the most private property. These are the people the current crop of Politicians have to please in order to get into power each General Election. The majority that did not buy property before 2001 I think will be Renters most of their lives and it is their kids and grand kids that will own property st s young age. Think about it, Baby boomers die, pass the property onto their kids. The kids don't care what they can sell it for, they got it for free. Only then will we see inflation adjusted property prices slashed massively.
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