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Everything posted by sonswan

  1. sonswan

    Proper hpc?

    Personally, I don't think the population decline is the driver, and I don't think this is a huge problem (yet) - first decline in a while and might be a blip. Be interesting to see if it is the beginning of a trend. But, as for house prices; it certainly seems the pace of the decline has increased massively the last 12 months. Particularly in the say 300k-600k range. Perhaps a combination of simple issues with affordability, and concern over ongoing and increasing fiscal squeeze? What do you reckon?
  2. Reserves run out on current run rate between 5-10 years time. I cant recall the actual figures and can't check presently, but you can access government accounts on IOM gov website or just Google them. Prices are falling here or in some sections of the market static at best. I would only expect that to worsen in due course. Perhaps not soon, but come 5 years time the price drops may well be more pronounced. Look at price histories on zoopla, or sort by most reduced and look at the falls in price over time, it's quite interesting.
  3. Hi Wsn, Yes, seems ok for now but I really do believe there will be a seismic shift in sentiment over the next 5 years or so. The issue with Flats isn’t entirely new here, they have been building lots of them for a long time, and from what I gather people are struggling to shift them. Re the market defying gravity, as I mentioned low – mid range has fallen but not huge amounts. The government has varying schemes to assist first time (and in some rare cases, second time) buyers, and also interest relief on loan interest (although this is capped). It will be interesting to see if policy on
  4. I live on the Island and take a similar view to you although I disagree about the economy tanking - I am actually surprised about how things have held up thus far, but I suspect that when the government finance issues come to head things will turn south for real. People have been moaning about "austerity" here but I don't think they have seen the half of it yet. The Island is still drawing down on £x millions of reserves each year to meet revenue expenditure and whilst somewhat superficial cuts have been made, they are not even close to balancing the budget. Add in to the mix the issues with
  5. Hi Porca, Do you have any further reading on Japanese house prices since early 90s? I recall that they have still not recovered from their peak.
  6. I assume because any decline in the fall in the Yen would offset gains made in yen denominated shares? I suppose the cheapest way of doing so would be to invest in one of the many ccy hedged Japan focused ETFs???
  7. Thanks for the contributions! So in summary what is the conclusion? If you were Japanese and relatively risk averse, there was no way to invest domestically over the 20 year period and generate beyond meagre returns? So for a UK saver, what should the strategy be? Ccy hedged foreign fixed income?
  8. Appreciate the comments.... On higher yielding foreign currency marketed by local banks; as a UK investor I am not sure how easy it is to access these markets without exposing myself to currency risk. Also, I am not sure whether I would want to venture into emerging market fixed income instruments at present - and virtually all developed markets are also virtually at 0% interest rates also. I suppose there are NZ and AUD that perhaps I could tolerate, but then i worry about the FX exposure. I wonder if there are any ETFs or similar that may invest in such currencies that hedge the currency
  9. Hi.... I was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on your average working professional in Japan has invested and fared over the last 20 years. Reason I ask is that if the UK is headed towards a Japanese style stagnant couple of decades with with 0% interest rates, how has the average person invested their money and saved for retirement? If they had been ploughing into domestic risk assets for the last 20 years I don't think they would be sat too pretty at the moment looking at the history of the Nikkei since 1990 (i acknowledged the nikkei has rocketed the past 2-3 years). Does anyone hav
  10. http://www.iomtoday.co.im/news/business/isle-of-man-will-adopt-tax-information-sharing-agreements-with-the-uk-1-5207270 Would anyone care to offer their opinion on this? I am still rather surprised at the relatively moderate (or even negligible) price falls on the IOM to date. I think the forthcoming fiscal squeeze and cuts to the public sector that will need to be taken, coupled with the above news may well impact HPs over the course of the next couple of years. I am still in disbelief at the relative stability in house prices over the past few years on the IOM.
  11. Deadlegs, I agree with you - but is it just me or have we not actually seen a significant correction yet in the housing market here (here- assuming you are a resident!). Yes we have seen some falls but sellers as your comment would also suggest appear to be fairly stubborn at present despite things not moving. I just wonder when we are going to see some real reduction in prices. You would think with bad jobs news recently, the state of government finances etc that the valuations may have come down more substantially by now. Seems to be taking a long time to filter through. Any thoughts?
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