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aeris

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About aeris

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  1. aeris

    Is It Game Over?

    Hard pounding, I agree, but lets check the facts. Reasons for houses to rise: Help to buy, funding for lending, and QE Low interest rates Government resolve to continue this as far as remotely possible. Lack of decent houses for sale for whatever reason, lack of supply to choose from Reasons for houses to fall. Overvalued vs wages Inflation higher than wages and very likely to continue First time buyers able to utilise gov schemes and stick it to the landlords, resulting in lower rents and increased turnover, - possible forced sales Interest rates can only go up The US coming out of recession well before the UK can even dream about it leading to tightening of credit on world markets, tapering. Rise in less secure jobs not compatible with taking out large long term mortgages Benefit caps I propose we completely ignore London in all our considerations as its fueled temporarily by foreign buyers in an obvious bubble, WHEN it pops it will drag house price statistics down just as it has pushed them up. In a recession, the aim is not to lose money, so even low interest rates are a plus. It seems to me, given the facts above, no-one is safe, least of all the people taking on big mortgages and anything may happen. That said, buying a home is not about investment returns, if your house falls in value, you simply pay less for its replacement when you sell, and you pay less stamp duty and estate agents fees. As long as you can afford the mortgage and like the house, buy it!!! If you are really lucky and buy at the "right time" great but you have to be very lucky to do that or very skilfull, don't lose sleep over it if that does not happen. Its a home.
  2. Well, I don't know...... If the government are throwing money at artificially rigging the housing market, who am I to stand in the way of being given an interest free loan for 5 years, after which the interest on it will be 1.75%. I am a cash buyer with pitiful interest rates on my money and have been quite fearful of this scam for a while now, but why not take advantage of it? I mean I can see the government are judasing me with it and screwing me around, by rigging the market, by so why not take their money and screw them back for a change? I could get a mortgage, get their 20%, pay off my mortgage immediately, and voila!!
  3. Thank you hellsbells. My property report on salisbury over the last few months. I cover the price range £0 to 240k Good quality property sells quickly as long as its not overpriced. A lot of property tends to sit there, and I regularly see small 5k price drops. Sometimes 10k. Its a slow business, but you have to be careful in offers; if they can't sell something at a given price, you may not be able to when you come to sell. Around march there was a sudden huge influx of 1 bed properties, considering they are not that common it probably means btl portfolio selling. I believe they are still around. I am absolutely confiident that the price of flats has fallen considerably, houses not so much. Price of a two bed semi is almost identical to what it was 6 years ago, maybe even longer. A flat that was 175k in 2007 would be nearer 150k now. I nearly bought one in 07 at 162k, I know for a fact that in the same block same condition, one went on the market at 135k, thats the most extreme example. I also know the person I was in competition to buy it was a BTL guy, because the estate agent told me, although whether he was the actual buyer in the end I am not absolutely certain. Very likely though. (thankyou property bee) There is not much coming on the market, should anything happen to change that I would see price falls. Other than that, I have no idea on the future direction. Happy house hunting!!
  4. The way I see it is that you don't make money in recessions, you just avoid losing it, thats success. Just get the best you can and chill out. If you put it anywhere else, gold, houses, shares, commodities, they are all vulnerable to deflation. And if anyone thinks inflation is the problem, why are governments pulling their testicles out trying to avoid it deflation? Except of course in loser Britain which is such a basket case you get stagflation.
  5. No, I have not noticed anything. I have noticed a glut of 1 bed places suddenly appearing in the last few weeks. Probably a BTL or 2 selling up. I would be spooked too with the gov. enabling lots of FTBs who are currently forced to rent being able to buy. There is no saying it will put house prices up, just enable more turnover/voids.
  6. I routinely skip all newbuild. If there were a filter that got rid of them on rightmove I would use it. As for this property, especially with 50% going to chavs, you would seriously need your head examining if you bought it. I think you have a duty to give your opinion, and to try to save someone from making a mistake, we should help each other out, but its up to him if he takes that advice.
  7. I think that once it became obvious the economics would still be bad several years down tthe line, the tories decided they had to do something in time for election year.
  8. My plan is to go to housepricecrash to see what everyone else's plan is. And to look for a post that says this won't have any effect. I don't mind the first bit of the scheme on newbuild, if I was trying to sell a house right now, I would be furious that all my potential buyers could be lured away to subsidised newbuild, and I would be under pressure to lower my price. Its the second part of the scheme which is unknown.
  9. Central south. Price of flats has come down appx 15 to 20 per cent. Price of houses appx no change. Looking at the last 5 years. Price range studied is 150 to 220,000k. My buying power is going up slowly, even low interest rates are plus territory. There is a danger of falls in such a weak economy. What possible incentive do I have to buy now?
  10. There are huge forces pushing on house prices, both to make them rise and fall. Knowing which will win and when is a bit of a lottery, but for me as long as prices are static in my local area, I feel I have time for the right place to come up and the possibility of a fall to happen. Key is to know your area, visit rightmove daily and get a feel for it.
  11. You can either create wealth and enterprise at a 100% pedal to the metal rate, and have a miserable screwed up unnatural day like these guys. Or you can do it at say 80%, and be happier, more relaxed etc. Raw capitalism does the former. Capitalism allied to state rules limiting its excesses does the latter. Net result, ouir wealth is created at a rate of 80% rather than 100%. So what. Is that the end of the world? So we are all a few years behind what we could be. These people are human beings, not robots. And they might be you, or your kids.
  12. Really sorry to say this, but there was a converted shed with half the space this house had,, asking £200,000 here in the mid south. It was kind of detached and was long and narrow, like a houseboat. And the space in that property is quite generous, I have seen modern houses where you think you are stood in the hall, and it turns out to be the living room.
  13. If I earn £100 and the cost of goods went down by £50, and the gov said, we can't have this, and they printed £50, then the cost of goods would rise to £100. But my wages would also rise to £150. So how does printing money help vs deflation? Just wondering.....
  14. Wait a minute, where is the government getting this 80 bn to fund the scheme from? I thought they were broke. Please don't tell me they are printing the money..... Anyway, I too have got some letters telling me rates are being reduced. But you can still get 1.7 to 2 per cent. Inflation is 3 - 4 percent. That means I am losing 2 per cent or so. But in a recession, its often a case of losing least, everyone apart from the odd clever clogs loses something in a recession. If you had money in housing you would have lost more especially after transaction fees. If in shares they went down in the last 2 years more than 2 %. Both are risky. Gold is a rigged market in some respects. Cash is still a reasonable position to be in.
  15. Yes!! Thats more like it. Waiting for interest rate rises in this country might be like waiting for a bus, you wait ages then 3 turn up!!
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