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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by iBought

  1. Repeat of A Place in the Sun: Home or Away on More4 yesterday, first broadcast 1 Aug 2008. Scary stuff 4od Catch up You'd think the 'expert' advice would be don't buy at these prices...
  2. Since it can't be much fun being the only one playing I'll have a go at 570. Increasing numbers of house reductions based on the increasing gloom. 'couse now the sun has made an appearance I could be totally wrong and prices (asking) will be up up up across the board (at risk of being made unemployed? Add an extra 50k to the house price...).
  3. Yikes - that has hurt my head. They must have known somebody to get that planning passed...
  4. Are we defining the innocents in the same way? The inoccents for me were those who choose not to buy, seeing the market for what it was. Their own circumstances were negatively impacted by the speculators (Obviously those involved in BTL, but also those 'buying' homes they couldn't afford and pushing the market up). While the housing market returning to a sensible state should enable them to now consider buying the state of the economy may well mean that for some they may now never own their own home (A period of unemployment now following on from the delays caused by the booming market could make this a very real possibility...). I think we need to be careful to excuse those who were simply 'caught up in it all'. Buying should have been a considered decision. And their decisions have consequences (both for themselves and those they priced out of the market). Not that I'm heartless mind - those who took the risk to buy, paying a sensible price, aovided becoming involved in bidding wars etc etc and now find themselves suffering as a result of the wider economy do deserve some sympathy.
  5. And three increases - don't forget the increases. I always wonder what those increasing are thinking. The 50 grand increase is laugh out loud funny. Could they have meant for a reduction (bad phone line when phoning the agent)? Plenty of other houses in the area not selling.
  6. Excellent news. Can just imagine the fear that is now spreading among the over indebted. Not even the big boys are safe... Excellent.
  7. Isn't it great to see the courts reject all the nonsense excuses. Now the financial institutions just need to work their way down their list of defaulters and ensure the message that property isn't a one way bet is firmly entrenched on the Irish mind. Even now too many expect those who gambled to get away with it - not least because of defenses as that employed by Mrs Quinn. I have heard from a number of people, on a number of occasions, that such and such will be fine because of their wife. Never mind the personal guarantees which she and he both signed. The courts doing the right thing will be invaluable to stop future speculation.
  8. So to be clear Patrick having lost his job finds he is not in a position to fulfill his end of the agreement he freely entered into with the bank and he believes by holding a protest he will be granted a bail out. Crazy thing is he probably isn't crazy for protesting - moral hazard be damned.
  9. Quick search of County Down for the last week and there is there is a property showing a drop of .04% (from £120,000 to £119,950). A daft drop if I ever did see one...
  10. As they say it takes two to dance. Market Value will therefore be whatever price both parties can agree upon. At the point of sale for a single house this isn't very informative. You may have a distressed seller, or a stupid buyer, and in either case the price reached could be unique to a particular sale of a particular property. Essentially the market value is good for one day only. If seller and buyer can not agree then there is no market. Clearly the above view creates a difficulty in valuing property. If single price points can not be trusted then it would seem to argue to the benefit of an open Land Registry system. However it should be noted that even the most robust Land Registry information should not be relied upon to establish worth. This would seem to be to give a credible route for price booms to be established. Lenders and buyers should rather be more sophisticated and establish to their own satisfaction the value of the property involved.
  11. Yes the rest of the UK will follow. This should be readily apparent at this stage. Focus on prices likely results from the fact that the failure of the rest of the UK to enjoy the price readjustment enables those in power to continue to play out the farcical pretense that the boom time prices for housing remains viable. This then enables those so minded here to imply the falls in Northern Ireland have been extreme and a further correction, but this time upwards, should be expected.
  12. Not sure what is better. The drop in the value of the site, or the fact anybody though it a good idea to spend this type of money to acquire a site for a new headquarters for the Health and Safety Authority. If it had at least been with the intention of putting the site to productive enterprise I could have some sympathy. Still somebody did very nicely for themselves out of that sale...
  13. The key point was the particular VI being given exposure in the media. Clearly certain individuals would be better served with high prices rather than low. Their view is the one presented by the traditional press. Not all VI are treated (or created) equally. I have no interest in buying a cheaper house (no longer have any interest...), however, for sure I have an interest in property prices - otherwise this would be a strange site to spend any time at. I believe lower house prices will lead to a better society and the country as a whole will benefit. I therefore have a vested interest. As too would the individual on benefits... you never know, we might even see some job creation happening if we had lower cost of living (lower costs = lower wage demands), and that person on benefits will find their way into work... Ideally I would like to see the price of houses continue to fall and the cost of borrowing to rise to something approaching sustainable for the longer term (lets avoid future rate rise shocks...). Then perhaps more will buy property as they would a pair of shoes. Comfortable and appropriate to their requirements, for their enjoyment and most of all affordable to their means.
  14. I would hope that at least for some now purchasing; or yet to purchase but going to do so at the new lower prices, they won't have to concern themselves with mortgage payments at all... So yes, agreed, their outgoings could be lower than the average (those needing to borrow won't be able to access the same rate as those current borrowers on overly generous tracker mortgages so that would be a more confused picture).
  15. 'course that fails to take into account the drop in value of their property for those that bought. Depending on the time of purchase, and property type we might have to factor in hundreds of thousands of pounds...
  16. There would seem to be such opportunity for whichever political party is first to stop wishing for a return to the past, to stop hiding from the present and to stop fearing the future. While it may be understandable why the mainland UK political establishment choose not to embrace the message of lower prices - not least because they are yet to properly happen there (and such a message could be seen as anti banks which would not play well with the markets), the failure for at least one party here to embrace the positive message is confusing. Perhaps the politicians need an HPC cheat sheet listing the reasons lower prices are good and detailing the benefits a lower cost of living can have for the country. The first to get on message could gain such political capital without having to actually do anything (beyond being positive) - it isn't as if they would have to actually bring about the price adjustment as that has already happened... If they should then legislate to ensure NI would continue to enjoy reduced cost of living going forward - to include but not limited to better tenancy rights and proper regulation of BTL as a business - then the message could go out that Northern Ireland is both open for business and offers a low cost base to business. This just seems like such an obvious issue that a party could embrace to help differentiate themselves from the sameness of local politics, a basic story that can be spun to show real benefit to the ordinary man in the street and the country at large, a political issue that could reach across the traditional political divides - perhaps if any politician or their researcher happens to read this thread they will take the opportunity to reconsider their position. As Ride-on has noted in one simple sentence the crash is the solution, not the problem. Time somebody took the message to the electorate (has there been any surveys published of public opinion relating to the price crash - I would suspect opinion on the question of if it is a net positive or negative would rest closer to the sentiments of this site than the VI mouth pieces given exposure in the media).
  17. Well it appears whoever is responsible for writing the blurb for the iPlayer still doesn't get it: "the property crash - which has left a generation in Northern Ireland blighted by debt." Seems it is too much to expect the property price correction to be correctly portrayed as saving those yet to buy from unreasonable burdens of debt. Those who are now suffering the consequence of borrowing monies they can no longer repay are simply being exposed to the consequence of the debt they willingly entered into. The property crash did not create the debt (even if it prevented them passing it on to some greater fool) - and indeed the poor state of the economy has helped ensure the debt repayments have been keep lower than would have been anticipated through the continuing policy of artificially low interest rates. Sadly the Spotlight episode fully failed to realise that for all the big time losers during the readjustment there will be many nameless and ordinary people who will rightly be the winners (the same people who would have been the unglamorous losers had HPI continued) . If Directors of firms have gambled the future of their firms through playing the property markets then upon losing their bets the should not expect to be bailed out, or expect any sympathy from the ordinary man that their unrelated business of however many years should now be in trouble. If the business was a viable operation then others will see the value and jobs will be saved. Certainly some innocent parties will suffer - but surely in contrast to those who would have suffered if HPI would have continued their numbers are small. Not sure why that Spotlight episode should have annoyed me so greatly. Perhaps it was because I couldn't help view it as anything other than setting the ground work for further calls for government intervention and manipulation of the market. Perhaps it was the continued representation of the readjustment as negative. Whatever it was congratulations to them - having lurked here for more years than I can remember and having watched prices rise beyond all reason and subsequently correct, this thread should finally be the push to have me register on hpc. Yes iBought has bought. And to be clear - the simple act of buying does not serve to transform one into a Daily Express reading, HPI craving lunatic. Further falls are to be welcomed. I bought not because I believed the bottom to have been reached but because of the timing of events unrelated to house prices (Death - so that would be one of the D's then....). However I wouldn't have bought if I didn't believe I was getting value. As the question of rateable value and actual selling prices is often brought up I can state iBought bought for just over 17% below rateable value. The property was not openly marketed but purchased from family as result of a death. The price I paid however would have represented the maximum I would have been prepared to pay (a view more than supported by the continued market direction post purchase). In terms of drop from peak no direct comparison property was marketed at the peak, however less desirable properties would have been achieving double what I paid. Property type would be a red brick, end terrace, and oh wasn't it a lovely day the day we... (so what would have been a good family home in days gone by, but now perhaps more seen as a starter home? - which would be a terrible description, as it could last me a lifetime). So to be clear the price crash saved me a lifetime of debt (and yes - I like I guess others on this site were presented the opportunity of a Liar Loan, so it isn't unreasonable to consider the debt we could now be enjoying in relation to peak prices even if totally disconnected from earnings. Refusing the offer on the basis that prices would correct didn't exactly help make me popular...). I feel I should come over all as if at the Oscars and start thanking the users of the site - perhaps best to avoid. For me without doubt this site has had value. While I fully believe I still wouldn't have bought even without it serving to reassure my own interpretation it was helpful to have a source of opinion that differed from the "it will never happen here" sentiments of the masses. For those coming upon this site post the Spotlight show then perhaps the takeaway should be that debt is not wealth. As there is no prospect of a rapid rise in house prices there is no rush to buy (at least the show allowed this view to be heard). Take time, find value, avoid debt. Long live the HPC.
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