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cuddlybear

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About cuddlybear

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  1. Martin Armstrong comes up every so often on this forum so I'm surprised no one (as far as I can see) has posted these yet http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34743 http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34811 I know we're all annoyed about ZIRP/QE/HTB but sadly those policies do seem to justify current UK house prices (the average person doesn't seem to mind being fleeced for 50% extra for a house, it seems) But the London thing has now gone beyond even those heights It is amazing to walk around central London and note how few of these posh new apartments are actually occupied, surely at least that stuff has to crash when something upsets the applecart So could Martin Armstrong soon be proved right that the London market will soon be "an abyss"? Does anyone know which "property companies at the top-end" have crashed, as he says?
  2. All perfectly timed for an election property market bounce, isn't it? I think this is absolutely shocking. Are the 70 and 80 something landlords going to be allowed to fail? Interest rates go up or they have to replace a boiler so they can't feed themselves that month? Presumably they will have to be subsidised via taxation in these scenarios, ie by the working-age tenant whom they are pricing out of the market! Maybe it's fair enough if they have saved money outwith a pension in order to fund a BTL but I would have thought the quid pro quo for the tax breaks on pensions would be that you have to use your pension money in a responsible way to provide a secure income for yourself
  3. I think it works something like this Government wants to reduce its own spending and hence pay down its own debt (or at least stop the debt going up) This would cause a recession so they want the public to spend more money into the economy to make up the difference So the most obvious and immediate way to do that is through rising house prices (to generate real and sustainable economic growth would take too long and that's so last century anyway) Two transmission mechanisms: - home-owners feel wealthier and hence more inclined to borrow and spend, particularly borrow against their own increased home value - home-owners sell at greater prices and splash their windfall Either transmission mechanism loads up on debt (in the first case it's the home-owner taking on additional debt, in the second case it's an unfortunate young person taking on more debt than they should have to do to buy the house). In both cases eventually we have to either repay the debt and reduce future consumption somehow or come up with some real economic growth to help pay it back. Or find a way to fudge things (devaluation/inflation/confiscation/theft) I would suggest eventually it leads to a big crash in common with previous cycles, the only question for me is whether it's the full 18.6 years or whether some other crisis intervenes sooner
  4. I'm not necessarily *convinced* myself but I'm much more intellectually *interested* in the bull case for housing (I know the bear case extremely well already, everyone here does!) So if I can validate developments against the bull case as they occur then maybe in a few years' time I will be convinced. If not then I won't be! And thanks for re-quoting my research on that Campden Hill Gardens case, like I said there's actual real material verifiable evidence of a pullback in PCL prices. Mind you I bet many people missed that given all the asking price garbage that everyone keeps on posting on this thread, that's the real (unintentional) "forum sliding" or whatever it's called.
  5. Good stuff, this thread is slightly pointless if there isn't some good quality information coming through, mystery-shopping EAs and tying up precise property details is the way to go Asking price changes (four reductions out of ten in Clapham or whatever, how exciting) - totally pointless. I would expect plenty of asking price reductions in a rising market... it's called the "price discovery" mechanism. Hence my "yay big crash" comments. However for example my posts #2878 and #2882 constituted real evidence of a material pullback in Prime Central London prices which I thought was interesting Ironic really that there was a suggestion my posts were distracting the forum from its members' research when in fact I've put up much better research than the asking price garbage
  6. Mine is no better to be honest This minor spat started when KB posted something along the lines of 'reading moneyweek, zero hedge, Schiff, taleb, dent etc can be severely damaging to your wealth' without noticing he should be on his own list Anyway the off-topic complaints are justified so I will have to let this lie now
  7. KB's replies yesterday were absolutely classic "I'm happy with my record" "Go and have a look at what I wrote" "Oh that's not the only article I wrote" "As if I care about defending my record!" You Couldn't Make It Up!!!
  8. Ok back to what this thread should be about Look at this: http://www.zoopla.co.uk/new-homes/details/34291206 Price reduced by £10,000!!!! Yay big crash!!!!!!!!
  9. Really? Are you absolutely sure? I've read a lot of this thread and some other online publications and I'm not entirely sure whether or not it's just an exceptionally well disguised bull market
  10. Best form of defence here would be for you to post an article you wrote (covering at least two major asset classes) from 3-10 years ago which looks pretty good in light of what happened Seriously I'm not having a pop at the wrong forecasting - I've done plenty of that myself - I just couldn't believe it when you posted a list of pundits whose advice would have cost you money without realising you should have been on the list They probably deride you in the Moneyweek offices in the same way you have derided Moneyweek today on this forum Even the quote in your signature from a Sky News interview in 2011, I think I saw that interview and I think you said something along the lines of "with all the money-printing that's going on, inflation will roar, interest rates will have to go up and UK house prices will fall by 10% at least" I wonder if I'll be able to find the clip online to verify. On verra
  11. Dominic Frisby of Moneyweek recently noticed and wrote an article on the recent downtrend in gold - bullish contraindicator maybe?
  12. There was massive public domain known support - specifically QE/ZIRP/FLS/SMI Two ways to interpret that 1) Property is overpriced, when they remove all these props then we'll get a reduction to fair value 2) These props are succeeding in avoiding a correction and in fact arguably make property underpriced now (6% rental yield versus 3% finance cost anyone?), maybe the market will go up, especially if there are more props added So far 2 has proven to be a better bet
  13. "25-35% fall" is "mildly bearish" is it? What would be "severely bearish" - immediate fall to zero for every asset class? The "historical reality" is that advisers who noticed the property market was being protected by the government would not have been surprised by HTB and would have had themselves and their clients appropriately positioned Anyone on your list could recast their own record in favourable terms as you have done Not that I mind the wrong forecasts though, just saying you shouldn't throw stones
  14. http://jonathandaviswm.com/blog/2010/apr/19/economist/ April 2010 "we see UK [house] prices falling c 25-35%" - in fact nominal low was already gone by that point "On the stock markets, we have consistently stated that prices were again displaying bubble-like features and something would come and burst the bubble." - US equities up by about 60% since then and I don't think any pullback has taken prices below where they were on the date of that article (edit post: those last 18 words aren't true, I was looking at the wrong chart, sorry) I feel like I'm being a bit mean here because you are fighting the good fight and no-one's predictions are always right I was just surprised to see you criticising the publications/pundits that you named, that's all. Your record is no better than theirs
  15. US stock market nearly trebled (nominal) since 2009. Accumulating a position in 2009, 2010, 2011 when Zerohedge told you the world was ending would put you in a very good position now to take a lot of profit and correctly dial down your exposure. Similarly the people who bought your wife's flat in Clapham for £400k could now sell it for £600k (I seem to remember you writing that is now the current rate), again maybe they could sell up and buy something a bit cheaper a bit further out, say a £350k place in Zone 4 without much of a mortgage on it (from the equity uplift in Clapham) Staying out of either of those deals would be costly unfortunately Not sure what your washing machine reference is all about. I don't speculate on property or indeed anything.
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