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House Price Crash Forum


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    Tooting Popular Front
  1. Mr Davies has a good go on 5 live with regard to splitting the banks Have a listen back on iPlayer if you can just before betweem 5:30 and 6
  2. Do they have room for that many IR cuts to sustain it that long? I've got 3 years in my mind.
  3. BOE -1.5% I fear that we will all have to wait for the Gilt/Bond markets to properly price the risk in financing UK.PLC debt before we get the interest rates needed to recognise savers. When these international investors wake up to the shape we are in then a HPC of epic proportions will follow. I can wait. Meanwhile bring on the bulls.
  4. Thanks Noel My maths is ok, just my English in this case was ambiguous; "Down over 85% this year" was meant to be interpretted as "down over 85% this last year" (ie last 12mths) somehow I think you knew this though..
  5. Over 85% of the share value already lost this year ... Are Barratts in a worst position of all the builders then?
  6. Very interesting read - there are limits on the Fed then - and if this post is accurate they it will reach them pretty soon if carries on the way it is doing.
  7. I don't know a great deal about all of this, so can I ask a basic question or 2.. When Central banks announce that they are making $Xbillion available to inject into the market, are they limited by anything? Can they just create as much money as they like and give it away as freely as they want? Will they themselves ever come under liquidity/asset pressure after bailing out too many of these ridiculously imprudent financial institutions?
  8. How do they calculate YoY 6.3% ? Why don't they compare their index now with a year earlier as they do with MoM ? This would seem reasonable and results in 630.8(Nov 07) compared to 610.7(Nov 06) = 3.3% If they are using a method of calculating YoY that is exaggerating the figure, will this work in reverse and exaggerate the YoY when it goes negative?
  9. Interestingly (in the light of the call for a 10% rise in the duty on alcohol this morning), the CPI/RPI report shows; "• Alcohol and tobacco, with prices falling this year but rising a year ago, particularly for bottles of whisky and bottled lager; and • Restaurants and hotels, mainly due to changes in hotel accommodation costs and the price of beer on-sales, particularly bitter." maybe there is a real case to act on alcohol misuse.
  10. Ever since 2001 it has been about inflating the economy. It's the UK/US government spending massive amounts of borrowed money to convince us all what fab places we live in and how marvellous the current ruling party is at managing the economy of each nation. The low interest rates were there to encourage all the citizens to do the same. Spend, spend, spend. Trouble is that both the government, and the people who have got used to this way of being, will want to keep on spending money that they aren't earning. Consumers may be able to do this for a while, as rates are artificially massaged, but it gets harder for countries to find investors in their debt notes when your currency is falling on the back of desperate interest rate cuts that attempt to prop up dwindling GDP. Bond/Gilt markets will demand the appropriate return for buying heaps of a falling asset. A round of interest rate cuts just delays the necessary discipline that we will, as citizens in the UK/US, have to exercise to get our countries back on track. We need some readjustment pain. It's for our own good. Trouble is that even though it's in our own long term interests to face up to some hard economic truthes and feel the pain that they will bring, this is certainly not in the best interests of the ruling parties. Political self interest will win the day in the short term - the respective currencies devalue - building an economy on credit bingeing will bring eventual ruination. HPC still on ? ....
  11. Builders certainly can't sit on their newly built lego toytowns. They are the biggest forced sellers in the market. Without BTL demand for their rubbish and the inability of families to sell their existing property for what they thought, then we should expect to see even more discounting than the current incentive frauds that they try currently. To this end I agree with those who follow building stocks as the leading edge indicator of market conditions. The Haliwide et al numbers are months behind the real position. Link: Barratt Developments share price falls ~35% since peak in Feb 07 Our time has finally come
  12. US national debt has gone over $9trillion! Brillig US Debt Clock They were out of credit at $8.965 trillion. No doubt they'll vote themselves a rise in their limit. But are there any implications to this? Will it be that simple with their growth figures heading lower? Will this figure in any election debates or don't the US public care ?
  13. Evidence of safety checks - 3 different properties rented and never been shown this by the agent or the landlord. Having to inform HMRC ?? Our current landlord hasn't even told his mortgage company, never mind HMRC!! And I know for a fact that the agent is complicit in the annual fraud of drawing yet more capital out of what they pretend to be an ever increasing asset. (after 3 years of renting this place the building society correspondance still comes here ..)
  14. M28 1EN is Lawndale Drive in the suburbs of Manchester and an extension of the up market Ellenbrook area. In mid 2004 buyers queued to put deposits down on these new build "Town Houses", Semis and a few flats. They all sold out on the first morning the cabin opened its doors. But what's this - A houseprices.co.uk search reveals the resale values; No 5 bought for £182,500 sold for £174,000 No 8 bought for £206,000 sold for £185,000 No 25 bought for £173,400 sold for £170,000 and now just added to the data this month; No 22 bought for £130,500 and just sold for £98,400 !! I make that a 25% loss Coming soon to a new build development near you ...
  15. Let me translate what you've written; moth = mouth check = cheque ill = I'll Reading between the lines I'd say you were pretty numb, especially when you imply that widespread wages can get cut in half and that asset prices would remain high and stable??? What law of economics would that follow then?
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