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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Goat

  1. Yes, personally I think this is a wind up, anyone on this site to blame? Somebody please post link to this thread on MSE, just so she knows what we think of her.
  2. I actually don't believe her, no qualified accountant would be so stupid!
  3. I don't have time to debunk all of your arguments in detail, instead can I suggest you follow this link: Andrew Farlow The papers are pretty heavy going but the first two in the house price series contain all that you need to know.
  4. Yep, made up to 30/6/2004; probably won't see the 2005 accounts to April next year. Would be interesting to see how much they make out the business though.
  5. Although Luton is not as bad as elsewhere in the south east your yeild must still be pretty marginal, a quick look through rightmove suggests something like 6% gross is achievable, after agent's fees, repairs & vacant periods there can't be much left to cover the mortgage interest. That said prices in Luton look pretty depressed compared with the surrounding area which will keep the yields up.
  6. Glad to hear it, as a guess I would say that your portfolio is based in the north or Scotland, am I right?
  7. Agreed, nothing gives the bulls more credibility than HPCers behaving like idiots. Wouldn't mind having a look at those a/c's though; only costs £1 so may buy myself.
  8. Post the accounts as a pdf so that we can all have a look.
  9. Spot on; what PG fails to understand is that it is the real rate of interest that affects HP's not the nominal rate. Real interest rates remain at about long term average
  10. Is it possible to post a link to this article as I would like to see the sources for this claim Looks like typical VI spin to me.
  11. I have no idea what you are talking about here and am pretty confident that neither do you. Key point: real interest rates remain at approximately average historical levels, the argument that low interest rates have generated a sustainable increase is not supported by the facts.
  12. Don't normally bother with timewasters but I am confident that end 2005 will in hindsight (by most, foresight by HPCs) be seen as the start of the crash with the bulk of the falls in the calendar years 2006 and 2007. The crash is coming a bit later than expected but that does not mean it is not coming. Anybody who doubts this should read Andrew Farlow's series of four papers on the fundamentals of UK house prices (will probably post the link in a separate thread shortly)
  13. Sorry for the misunderstanding but this quote is from the web page Property Guru links to and is not related to my circumstances. I am an FTB happy to rent until some sanity is restored to the market.
  14. Quote from BBC webpage linked to by Property Guru: "My house was repossessed a month ago. At the height of the property boom in early 2004 I splashed out far more than I could actually afford on a large property with the intention of selling it on at a profit. It wasn't long after that the property slowdown started but I kept hold of the property and financed the mortgage by getting myself further into debt, I was certain that the housing market would take off again and I would realise my gains. Following two years of quite harsh housing market drops in the south west I have been forced to admit defeat. I blame myself for everything that has happened but I also think there are a lot of companies around who like to put a rosy outlook on the housing market and try to make everyone think it will always go up (estate agents, surveyors, mortgage companies), they should take part of the blame for lying to the public." Dan, Bristol I am sure that there are plenty of people not yet repossessed but in generally the same position, only able to hold onto their houses by maxing out credit cards until the house of cards collapses.
  15. Shortly to be a period of low double digit house price falls
  16. Quite true, Chesham has been on a downward slide for some years now, dating back IMO to when they pedestrianised the high street about 15-20 years ago. There are still some niceish areas in Chesham however it does suffer in comparison with surrounding towns, the town centre is especially dire. The Berkhamsted end is one of the less attractive areas.
  17. Ahem, sorry but this is not correct. You are obviously confusing nominal (or money) interest rates with the real (inflation adjusted) interest rates. The truth is that nominal interest rates have no effect upon the economic fundamentals of the housing market, the real rate of interest is key and remains at approximately the long term average. Quoting low nominal interest rates (as done my many vested interests) as an explanation for house price rises simply does not hold water. You may wish to check out the following link that explains the arguments in more detail: Andrew Farlow Part 1
  18. Fine, as long as he is happy to stay there for many years. Still, he might get lucky, there are still plenty of mugs around.
  19. I can't say that I agree with this, I think we are already seeing the start of the downturn and the fact that it is coming in a little later than expected does not IMO undermine the argument in favour of price falls.
  20. Quite so, I wonder how much pressure the agent must be under to overreact like that?
  21. Quite right, its not just a case of jealousy; these non-jobs in the public sector are crowding out the productive jobs in the private sector by diverting workers away from productive activities, by increasing taxation and by generating ever more red tape. Basic rule of bureaucracy, the amount of bureaucracy will expand to occupy the number of available bureaucrats. The more people in govenment non-jobs, the more time the rest of us spend filling in forms to justify their existence.
  22. That is a lot for the PS; what sort of pension do you expect to get at the end of it?
  23. If we think Gordon is bad we should take a look at the US Govt. finances; this really could put us all into the Sh1t.
  24. Sounds an awful lot like a free ride to me.
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