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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Goat

  1. UPTB's parents experience is probably very good, if they are anything like my parents. By this I mean that the house they bought for £200,000 about 8 years ago is now worth in excess of £500,000, on paper they are therefore sitting on a capital gain of £300,000. The problem is that they are implicitly assuming that their son will see a similar gain on his investment; this is clearly unrealistic because it would mean that the average property would cost £300,000 by 2
  2. At first glance the rental yield is approximately 10%, which looks like a fair return to me and a reasonable investment. Compare this to residential property (in the south east esp) where you would be lucky to get half this rate and you can see why the people on this board think that house prices have to come down.
  3. Interestingly, the article goes on to say that there are no signs of an imminent crash. IMO the fact that prices are at the same level as 12 months ago is a very clear sign indeed
  4. It is not possible to predict when asset price bubbles will burst, we can only say that asset prices are out of line with economic fundamentals and are likely to return to trend. Interestingly when predicted crashed do not appear at a particular point this is taken by bulls to be proof that they are right and bears are wrong. It should be observed that bulls make no similar predictions as to when crashes will not occur and consequently the reverse logic can not be used against them. The second of Andrew Farlow's papers (see the home page) contains a very detailed explanaiton of asset price bubbles, all readers are advised to familiarise themselves with the work.
  5. London Landlady looks like a troll to me.
  6. You are only required to hand back the property in the same state which it was received; if the agents claim otherwise (and they might if it is in the contract) refer them back to the OFT publication "unfair terms in tennancy agreements" (OFT356). If they still persist threaten to refer them to your local trading standards office. It might also be a good idea to look through your agreement and see if any other terms are unfair. What constitutes fair wear and tear will always be open to debate however I would suggest that any substantial new stains on carpets go beyond this. Edit: actually, I would suggest that you report them to trading standards anyway (although you might want to do this on the QT), if they are trying to screw you like this then they are no doubt doing it to everyone else.
  7. As this only represents a 30% drop in house prices (compared with up to 50% possible drop) some BTLs might well be selling their wife & daughter to stave off bankruptcy.
  8. I think most people would prefer to own however the risks at the moment are just too great.
  9. I think this is about the last thing you want to do. If this happens then the BS will sell the property at auction (bottom dollar) and you will still be liable for any remainder on the mortgage. Better to sell at any price.
  10. Following on from posts regarding closure of various branches etc; the following article (from Estate Agency News) sheds a lot of light on the situation. http://www.estateagencynews.co.uk/news/arc...sark-0905b.html Apologies if you have seen this article before, it dates from September.
  11. According to Estate Agency news the average time to rent a vacant property is 14 weeks; given that you will probably not need to delay signing the tenancy agreement by more than a month from finding the property you should be fairly safe anyway.
  12. Using the same logic: Defendant: "I stole £450,000 from my employer because I spent a fortune fighting a paternity case and wanted to provide for my childrens inheritance" Judge: "Oh, that's OK then, case dismissed" Do these people even know the difference between right & wrong or is it just a case of whatever they think they can get away with?
  13. Interesting point re "the boy who cries wolf" How many times have we heard "the crash has been delayed again" as if this means that house prices can never fall. The truth is that it is impossible to predict what path house prices will take over the next year or so; all that can be said with any confidence is that they are not supported by any economic fundamentals.
  14. No direct experience from earlier crashed however my guess is that in a falling market the lenders will be more interested in the size of deposits rather than income multiples. The key from a banks point of view is to avoid bad debts. Their losses will come from mortgages with negative equity, the higher the percentage of the purchase price lent, the greater the scope for NE.
  15. Massively more than they are worth IMO, & I think most end up with much more than this.
  16. (e) under which, subject to the following provisions of this Part of this Act, the other terms are the same as those of the fixed term tenancy immediately before it came to an end, except that any term which makes provision for determination by the landlord or the tenant shall not have effect while the tenancy remains an assured tenancy. Not sure why this sections would invalidate the clause.
  17. I don't think you can draw too much from any one months figures. I think of more interest is that total growth in the quarter was 0.2%, which in real terms is a fall. I think the picture as a whole is that the market (on a national scale) has reached the very top, it might hover there for a few months but I think we are at or about the turning point.
  18. Normal practice in periodic tennancies is for tennants to give 1 months notice when they wish to end it with landlords being required to give two months notice to quit. My own contract requires a two month notice period from me, although I think it is lawful for them to include this term can anybody let me know if there is any legal reason why this would not be the case. I should mention that I am about to report the agents to the local trading standards body because a number of the other terms clearly breach the guidance on unfair terms laid out by the office of fair trading.
  19. The real problem with these HIPs is that they will be of little real use. They will not include a valuation which means that most mortgage lenders will require another survey anyway duplicating the work. Much better a system where if the seller pulls out (after accepting an offer) he is obliged to meet the buyers costs.
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