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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Goat

  1. Yes, obviously city traders have been living hand to mouth up until now but with this sudden change the market will obviously go through the roof again!
  2. Can you provide a reference for this? I would like to investigate further. Sorry, my reference should have read "chapter 1 Section 5(2)". My point is that assured shorthold tenancies end at the end of the fixed term and become periodic tenancies.
  3. Not sure we are going to see 1991 levels of repossession as interest rates are likely to remain low and people will be able to service their loans. The real problem will be that those who have borrowed and bought at the top of the market will be stuck in their starter homes/flats for life. The lucky ones might be able to build up enough equity over ten to fifteen years to move on but there will be many who will struggle to clear the debts for the rest of their lives. As a rough example let us assume that a 30 year old buys a flat for 160,000, with a 20% deposit; this requires a £130,000 loan. If the flat then falls by 30% in real terms then from having 30,000 equity, then now have 20,000 negative equity. To move they must get back to 30,000 equity, if they can save 5,000 a year for 10 years (and this is a lot!) they can get back to where they were but they will always be £50,000 short of where they would otherwise be. How you are supposed to start a family in this situation is beyond me.
  4. Housing Act 1988 The above link takes you to a copy of the housing act 1988. Chapter 5 section 2b creates the statutory periodic tenancy. Chapter 6 sets the terms of periodic tenancies. At no point does it say that these are assured tenancies. Did I say that? nowhere in the housing act can I find a reference to an assured shorthold statutory periodic tenancy. Per chapter 5 section 2, periodic tenancies come into existence at the end of assured tenancies.
  5. Given that most of us think that GB has the IQ of a turd this would not be difficult but: The figures represent one months cash receipts and ignore the fact that for the other 11 months cash has flowed the other way so this report is meaningless.
  6. Sorry, but there is no such thing. Periodic tenancies come into the existance at the end of assured tenancies but are not assured tenancies. Can I refer you back to the office of the deputy prime ministers publication "notice that you must leave" which states: "If the tenant is a statutory tenant (that is, a tenant who remains in possession under the Rent Act after the tenancy agreement has come to an end) and he or she does not make a new agreement with his or her landlord, he or she must, unless the landlord has said he or she does not need to: ● give at least four weeks’ notice; this may be longer if the original tenancy agreement required a longer notice."
  7. Fine, but don't ask me to transfer my wealth to you in the form of inflated house prices, free healthcare and unfunded state pensions.
  8. "Whilst the tenancy remains an assured tennacy" However once the fixed term the tenancy expires my understanding is that it becomes a statutory periodic tenancy (not an assured tenancy) so any provision for determination after the expiry of the fixed term can be effective. Am I correct?
  9. My understanding of small claims procedures is that each party is liable for their own costs only.
  10. However supply is very highly price inelastic to the extent that it is virtually fixed. Accordingly the price of properties is almost entirely determined by demand.
  11. If Nationwide are publically predicting modest falls next year can we assume that they are privately expecting rapid falls. Secondly, they expect the market to stabilise in the second half of next year, on what possible grounds can they base this?
  12. No problem with working till 67 (or 70) if it is to provide a decent retirement for myself but not if it is just to give another 5 years subsidy to public sector workers who retire 10 years earlier than me.
  13. Lots of talk here about the crash being long & drawn out, i'm not so sure. Once HPI goes negative there will be lots more talk about the price falls, this could rapidly change sentiment in the market leading to sellers bidding down prices to avoid future losses. If you look at the graphs of real house prices then the average peak to trough is about five years however the majority of the falls in prices are in the first two years. My expectations are for rapid falls upto the end of 2007 with further gentle declines in 2008 & 2009 with recovery starting in 2010 onwards, possibly leading into the next boom.
  14. Agreed, the problem is not journalistic bias, just simple laziness. As far as I can see most of the BBCs output on house prices is simply a cut and paste of whatever press release they have been handed by the VIs. Since no similar releases come from the other side only the VIs story tends to get reported.
  15. As a rough analogy, I drive past my local school at 95 MPH everyday but I've not hit anything so far so its never going to happen.
  16. I think that in 12 months it will be hard to negotiate a discount large enough to compensate for further falls. Get 10% off, only another 20% to loose!
  17. I think PPR relief applies in this case. 1 Definately
  18. I'm not sure that an economic slowdown is a necessary condition for an adjustment to house prices. The rate of economic growth in previous years has been steady but unspectacular and the argument that the current level of house prices is a result of this does not stand up, as evidenced by the increase in income multiples and the growth in prices well beyond the rate of economic growth. The mistake that buyers have made is that they have seen house price inflation as a trend that will continue ad infinitum and have priced properties on the back of expected future gains rather than economic fundamentals. A similar (but opposite) point was made by London Landlady (in an earlier thread) when she recalls being told in 1996 that property is a terrible investment that would go down forever. The key to understanding the current market is to realise that buyers are essentially noise traders, which is to say that they have no understanding of the fundamentals of the market but simply value property on the back of sentiment and recent experiences. A house is valued (by buyers) on the basis of prices paid for similar properties and not as a stream of future housing services. As the bubble has arisen as a result of unrealistic optimism over future prices. the HPC will happen when expectations of future price trends return to realistic levels. In my eyes the recent slowdown in the various surveys is strong evidence of a change in expectations amongst buyers over recent months, which IMO means that the long predicted crash is just getting under way.
  19. Article on front page of today's Times says that Sony now charging online suppliers 10-15% more than high street
  20. Suggestion has been made elsewhere on this site that EA's are trying to look busy but really have nothing to do?
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