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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Goat

  1. This is the country that voted 40/59 for Gormless Brown, with another 18/19 for similar socialists. Be realistic about the political culture.
  2. Salmond as the new Thatcher, somehow I can't quite see it.
  3. Your original post made it sound like it was.
  4. Of the 7 others only Poland doesn't have a planned adoption date and that will likely change soon. Sweden is very much the exception and I doubt Scotland would be able to follow that example.
  5. Er, SNP policy is to join the EU, it is a prerequisite of joining to commit to joining the Euro as well. They can certainly make it very hard for them not to, assuming that they actually get into the EU in the first place.
  6. 40/59 MP's are Labour, good luck with the good governance part. Unless you're proposing a return to barter they're going to need some kind of banking system so I'll assume that part to be pure hyperbole.
  7. So simple, why didn't I think of that? Here's why: Interest rates: post independence these are certain to spike, can't see how that's going to encourage investment. Taxation: hard to square that circle with the promises made on spending and the likely hole in the public finances. Also foreign investment is going to be hard to come by for various reasons including political instability and the simple fact that Scotland will not be in the EU. Quite simply if I'm Japco looking to invest somewhere near the Ruk then Ireland looks a much better option.
  8. Remember that's on top of the severe recession. I suppose there's a argument that devaluation might be more effective if done quickly in an independent country, it does however further undermine the SNPs claims about life after independence.
  9. If you're just going to say "all economists are wrong" and by extension anything they say should be ignored then fair enough, you're entitled to your opinion. Personally, when I see a team of economists from Credit Suisse warning: In our opinion Scotland would fall into a deep recession. We believe deposit flight is both highly likely and highly problematic (with banks assets of 12x GDP) and should the Bank of England move to guarantee Scottish deposits, we expect it to extract a high fiscal and regulatory price (probably insisting on a primary budget surplus). The re-domiciling of the financial sector and UK public service jobs, as well as a legal dispute over North Sea oil, would further accelerate any downturn. In our opinion, as North Sea oil production slows, we estimate that the non-oil economy would need a 10% to 20% devaluation to restore competitiveness. This would require a 5% to 10% fall in wages, driven by a steep rise in unemployment. Then I'm inclined to take them seriously.
  10. That's a completely new point, not an extension of any of the previous ones. Ultimately if self-determination trumps everything then there's nothing to discuss. Even if independence leads to mass starvation that's a price worth paying if it means replacing corrupt westminster politicians with corrupt edinburgh ones.
  11. They are generally quite knowledgeable about economics, so if they say the economy is going to crash that's something of relevance to most people.
  12. Yes, IF you get the structures right it is possible to grow very quickly from a low base, depending upon your starting point you might be able to catch up with an advanced economy in maybe 20 years give or take. Although who wants to nuke their economy in the first place. But my point was that I seriously doubt the Scots will get the structure right, and the Chinese or (east) Germany also show us what happens when you get the structure wrong. I think the point that matters there is whether the "best" were killed at the same rate as everyone else or if there is a selection process that means they die at a much higher rate, obviously it's going to be much harder to recover from a Cambodian type situation than a Germany type one. If Scotland did go down the toilet then the ones most able to escape would be the "best".
  13. Or they've decided that the costs of a yes vote outweigh the costs of a handful of ultra militant nats closing their accounts, as far as I'm aware there aren't any banks supporting yes anyway.
  14. But if the opportunities aren't there in the first place my point would stand. I never said it was, my statement was rich, (or) successful or talented. There's probably something to be said for that but I suspect it'll be a disaster for Scotland and the Ruk will end up with some of the fallout. President Anthony Charles Lynton Bliar. 'Nuff said.
  15. Salmond mainly and the yes campaign in general. On the subject of Murdoch, the last copy of the Sunday Times absolutely hammered the yes campaign (see eg my post 806 above), don't know what some of his other titles are doing. Here's a good starting point (one of the most recent from the Telegraph, there are probably better out there): http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/andrewlilico/100028096/standard-life-rbs-lloyds-and-others-show-just-how-real-the-impacts-of-scottish-independence-would-be/
  16. Yep, all of the rich, successful or talented may soon be leaving Scotland. Truely something to marvel at.
  17. Maybe this is a good thing but my problem is that this has been achieved with levels of dishonesty that would make even Tony Bliar blush. Ok, maybe not Bliar but you see my point.
  18. Possibly, 3rd May is cited as an influence on that picture, but quite frankly confusing a Picasso with anything is even more embarrasing.
  19. It's certainly getting interesting. A yes vote to destablise Europe? It would be even more intersting if the author were aware that Francisco de Goya died 108 years before the outbreak of the Spanish civil war and the painting he refers to (titled "the third of May 1808") depicts acts perpetrated by French soldiers against Spanish civilians during the Peninsular war (1807-1814). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Third_of_May_1808 Bit a credibility gap there wouldn't you say?
  20. Interesting little article by Dominic Lawson in last week's Sunday Times, I won't post any quotes due to the known copyright problems with that paper and it's behind a paywall anyway but the gist of it is: Independence is being promoted as a way to rid Scotland of the Tories forever. With the above achieved the left will be able to provide a socialist paradise with much higher levels of public spending and taxation. Ruk will produce much more right leaning governments committed to lower spending, lower taxation etc. Businesses will have the option of locating in either country, and will strongly favour the lower tax, lower regulation jurisdiction. Scotland therefore has the choice of apeing the new right wing forever Ruk or seeing a steady flow of jobs and skilled workers out of the country until all that's left is oil, farming and neds. A vote for yes is therefore a vote for Conservatism forever! Not sure the yes campaigners have quite twigged that yet. I'll go a bit further than Mr Lawson and say that the situation may actually be a bit worse than that since Scotland, Ireland and Ruk are now competing with each other for businesses and investment so we'll all be in a race to see who can produce the smallest, most efficient state and public spending will end up shrinking faster than under Maggie. GO SCOTLAND GO!
  21. Has anyone ever met a Scotsman who does pay his way?
  22. Thought I was the official tory party spokesman. Must be moving up in the world.
  23. Welcome back GB, it's a lesser forume without you.
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