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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. I'd recommend these chaps : http://www.fullcircleasset.co.uk ... and the bi-weekly newsletter is always a good read even if you don't invest with them.
  2. from : http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...23/cngen123.xml Urrr... exactly where do these 'first time buyers' live now? Aren't they either renting already or living with parents? Or do they currently live in the wild or something? Maybe there's a hitherto unknown race of people who are born at aged 21 and suddenly appear in the market looking to rent or buy?
  3. Hi Jeff, thanks for those links. I agree that ultimately the government bears responsability for the prevailing economic situation. But I was more responding to the what apears to be a belief that the government can literally change the money supply at their whim on a month by month basis, boosting it one month, cutting it back the next. Also, that "corset" that was mentioned hasn't been in place since 1980 - long before Mr. Brown's time. The root problem is that the money supply is almost entirly grown through debt, which is mathematically unsustainable.
  4. AFAIK, That's not how it works. The government doesn't directly controll the money supply. Have you ever heard of someone going into a building society and being told : "sorry, we can't lend you any money today, we're waiting for the government to increase the money supply" M4 is a resultant measure of how much broad money there is. The government doesn't say, right this year we're going to set the M4 value to X. The main driver behind M4 growth is private (individuals and industry) borrowing, the limit of which isn't directly set by the government (but indirectly through how much it costs to borrow). See : here, and here
  5. How is the amount of private borrowing related to politicians and a mockery of democracy? I'm missing the link?
  6. From the original post: "M4 lending refers to sterling loans made by the central bank, banks and building societies to the private sector." Just to be clear, this isn't the government taking on new debt. It is private individuals and companies.
  7. True - you're ultimately responsible for your own actions, no doubt - however, people don't live in isolation, they react to the world they live in. The world around them controls how they behave, what they believe, what they think is right, what they thing is wrong. People are easily influenced, controlled. Those who pull the strings might not bear responsibility at the individual level, but they are largely in control of the prevailing system within which people live. Going to a higher macro economic level, I think it is indisputable that debt based finance as promulgated by the private banks is the root cause of our economic problems. The system is broken.
  8. Thanks a lot for that, I've since spoken to them and they're going to contact their solicitor in the morning as a starting point.
  9. Oh crap, that would suck. I'll get them to check their contract. Thanks for all the help guys, apreciated.
  10. I agree. It's not fair on the sellers. On the other hand, they will end up with the house, valued at 312K plus the 30K, and my friend ends up 30K down for being dumb. I'm just looking for anything that might help them out, I'd rather see them keep the 30K than the sellers. I blame BBC bias and Gordon Brown
  11. A close friend of mine and his wife have lived in rented accommodation since their home was repossessed in the last crash. His grandfather passed away a few months ago, leaving a house valued at 285K and some cash investments. My advice (being a housing bear) was to stay renting, sell his grandfather's place as quickly as possible and wait for the market to drop more before looking to buy somewhere well within the 285K, leaving them with a new house and a something left over to form part of a pension (neither of them have no pensions or significant savings). Unfortunately, they found a place they fell in love with. Before I could say NOOOOO! they'd made an offer (312K) and within a very short space of time had borrowed 30K for the deposit and exchanged contracts. This is before even putting his Granddad's old place on the market! (they believed all the EA bull about how popular his garndad's village was at the moment etc. etc.) Well, the inevitable (in my mind) has happened. They are now in a position where they have 3 weeks to complete on the sale or loose their deposit. They've had one offer on his Granddad's place of 240K, which they turned down. It's currently looking like they will loose 30K and end up moving into his Granddad's place. So the question is, is there any way they can get out of the contract and get their deposit (or some of it) back? Or are they totally screwed? Any advice would be appreciated. Many Thanks.
  12. Some people will benefit from a HPC, others won't. Some people benefit from huge HPI, others don't. I can see no moral or ethical difference between those who want a HPC or those who want continued HPI. If you beleive it is fine to have (dunno if you do or not) constant upward media pressure (all those fecking house renovation programs!) on house prices, ramping up prices, making a speculative market out of something as fundamental as somewhere to live - turning those who can't afford, or choose not to buy, into a form of social outcast - but not ok for a group of people to want the oposite then that seems slightly unfair. If house prices weren't so inflated, and house buyers, banks, b/s, agents, media coverage (and of course, our favorite, the bbc ), hadn't been so wreckless in their hyping of house prices - constantly seeing HPI as a good thing - then we wouldn't be in the fix we are now where the BOE has its hands tied. Going to be very difficult to respond to growing inflation by raising rates if it's going to screw all the Linda Barker wannabies. The reason the recesion will likley be so severe is in large part due to excessive HPI. Handy Andy has a lot to answer for.
  13. An interesting interview with Stephen Leeb, author of 'The Oil Factor - protect yourself and profit from the coming energy crisis' and more recently 'The Coming Economic Collapse'. http://financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Leeb.html He predicts that the increasing demand for Oil from China and India, coupled with reaching or nearing the 'peak oil' could push oil to $200 a barrel by the end of the decade. He then outlines what areas to invest in to profit from this (energy, alternative energy, gold & companies with stakes in China/India) Does anyone read The Complete Investor ? Any good?
  14. I'd guess we'd have to look at our 'ballance of trade' or whatever it's called. That's the only way I can see that we could do it, by being a net exporter... but I very much doubt that we are a net exporter. I've not done the calculation, but I'm guessing these sums would have to be huge, would be interesting to see what the total amount of money required to pay of all our debts over the next say, 10 years would be. Assuming no one takes on any more debt, the compound interest on 1.2 trillion (again, this doesn't include industrial or government debt) would be HUGE! A years interest on 1.2 trillion alone would soak up our entire debt free money stock.
  15. It is a mathematical imposability for all of consumers and industry to repay all their debts - there is not enough money in the economy. Excluding exports (I don't actually know, but I'm guessing we import more than we export), there are two sources of money within our economy: 1. Cash and coins created debt free by the government. 2. Money created via borrowing, which must be repaid - plus interest. Looking at just personal debt alone (so no comercial debt), there is £1.2 trillion of debt. Assuming a very optimistic interest rate of 4.5%, that is a total yearly interest bill of £54bn. Unfortunatly the total amount of debt free money is approx 44bn!!!! Some 10bn short, so just looking at 1 years interest charges there is not enough debt free money available to pay of the debts. Unless I'm missing something?
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