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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. Another factor to consider is the impact of part time and temp job on household earnings. I forsee 5 years plus of tepid earnings growth. The landing myabe soft but the economy will be taxing on runway for a very long time. In another words we will be stuck at below trend growth for a long time
  2. The Bank of England said last week that it could not rule out "GDP falling for three successive quarters," because of the weak construction sector and the extra bank holiday associated with the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee celebrations. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9225414/Britain-in-double-dip-recession-as-growth-falls-0.2pc.html Not the weather this time. It is the bank holiday
  3. Growth is going to be moderate to non existent until households and the government have deleveraged. We are all in debt rehab.
  4. Any Ideas on property prices in Greece and Italy? IT maybe time to buy a Villa in itlay
  5. IMO the economy is unable to stand on own 2 feet since credit crunch recession. It still needs a help hand ( walking stick) in the form monetary stimulus ( low interest rates, QE) and if this continues fiscal stimulus of some form. I cannot see interest rates rising given low expectations on the prospects of diminishing global growth.
  6. Alternatively flight to quality away from USA Govt Bonds (AA+) to UK(AAA) Gilts may lower yields and money market rates.
  7. could be a little bounce back on friday. maybe 1% bounce
  8. In defense of Paul Krugman: I think he is concerned that about the timing of the spending freeze. Given that , unemployment is 9.2%, California 11.8%- it may not be prudent to freeze spending and cut budget measures the provide support to households. Infact, the budget deal may lead to a larger deficit as unemployment rises leading to lower tax revenues. It appears the budget was reached in order to prevent a stock market meltdown S&P down close to 3.5% in the lasw week. Continued uncertainity about the budget deal would have lead to more stock market loses; resulting in a fall in consumer and business confidence. This uncertainity and political schism that exists in America led to a budget deal that does not resolve the long term debt issues that plague the USA
  9. next is employment levels.It will be interesting to see what the government decides to do with austerity - if the slow down proofs not to be temporary quote name='FreeTrader' timestamp='1312190482' post='3070977'] 27th July For the first time in two years, optimism regarding the general business situation fell among UK manufacturers, and expectations of slower activity are driving a reappraisal of forward-looking business plans, the CBI said today. Growth in total orders and production eased slightly in the three months to July and manufacturers expect a further deceleration over the next quarter. As a result, after a fourth successive increase in employment in this survey, they plan to cut headcount over the next three months and have revised down their investment plans for the year ahead. Responding to the July Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey, manufacturers reported that they were less optimistic than three months ago (-16%), the first fall in sentiment since July 2009. 28th July The volume of sales on the high street in July was slightly lower than expected, compared to a year earlier, as shoppers reined in spending in the face of rising food and petrol prices, according to the CBI. The CBI Distributive Trades Survey was conducted between 28 June and 19 July. It revealed that 33% of retailers saw sales volumes rise on a year ago, while 38% reported a fall. The resulting balance of -5% was the weakest since June 2010 (a balance of -5%) and disappointed retailers’ expectations. It continued the weakness seen in the June survey (-2%). Retailers expect sales volumes to fall at a faster rate next month (-12%). 1st August Manufacturing activity in Britain unexpectedly contracted in July, marking the first monthly decline in two years, according to the Markit/CIPS purchasing managers index for the sector released Monday. Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 from a revised 51.4 reading in June. Economists had expected a reading of 50.9.
  10. I worry about gold at high prices. I think that is quite risky
  11. I think London differs from the rest of the UK because it is an international market. Attracts interests from overseas buyers. I am not sure if other parts of the UK garner similar interest. In addition the economic activity - financial and insurance attract both local and overseas companies(London is an international financial hub). This also attracts foriegn workers. Thus when you look at price correlations - london has low correlation to the rest of the UK.
  12. I would push for a bigger rental cut.But also look elsewhere. If the places is not clean before u rent it. You may have a hard time getting the landlord to fix breakdowns etc. Make sure the heat works( even though it is summer)
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