[We Have A Country Full Of Stupid Sheep]

"Yes! We're all individuals!"

"I'm not..."

(If in doubt quote Python...)

[House Price Prediction Time!]

I'll stick with what I said at the start of 2011 that we will see a 10% over this year. Although I admit we need to speed things up a bit for it to be right!

+ 3. My 'watchlist' (and I am obsessive enough to really be watching...) has shown considerable signs of capitulation over the last 2 weeks. Hardly science, I know, but I think we can make -10% by the end of the year. It only requires 1.5% drops per month, which has been seen before...

[No Hpc In London...]

As I've said many times, London N2 is proving extraordinarily resilient to the point that we've seen 20%+ increases in 3 bed semis over the past two years. Influx of 'moneyed' people from neighbouring areas (who can't quite afford Hampstead) seem to be pushing prices up.

Another bubble, perhaps, but it's a pain for me and my family who have lived locally for 5 years and are looking to buy...

Have you been watching the cheaper flat prices in the area as well? My theory is that you'll begin to see them dropping (maybe even from now if it's happening in other suburbs of London like Putney...) and then 6 months to a year later that will have bought the prices of the whole area down - even the larger houses.

But I do agree - it's extremely frustrating all this waiting around, and despite everything, there's no certainty it'll be worth it! I started looking to buy just before the sub-prime affair and have been watching and waiting ever since. And in that time I've gone from a sort of smug-self-certainty to a weary-stubborness!

[No Hpc In London...]

I suppose that these are mainly flats above shops etc, but are still much less than I am used to seeing in Putney. It can't be bad news!

Actually two of them are in Fulham - north of the river!

I take on board the point about the trickle effect, but can't help but feel that's an oversimplification that only applies to larger family houses bought with a certain amount of ready-possessed equity. I think the FTB flat market is a different matter, and the problem(?) is that *that* will have a trickle up effect in local areas. So flat prices will drop, and eventually bring the prices of local larger houses down as well. My only question is whether that effect will be powerful enough to travel back up the food chain and destroy 'prime London' as well. After all, even the uber rich are only buying around there because of confidence in the market. What happens if even that fails and all the institutional foreign investors all try to withdraw immediately?

I wouldn't bet my life on it, but forced to make a prediciton, two phrases keep coming to mind - 'What goes up, must come down' and 'The bigger they are, the harder they fall...'

(Although I'm looking to buy, and it's always so hard to tell the difference between well-thought out reasoning, and wishful thinking!)

[No Hpc In London...]

Not to flog a horse, but further evidence is mounting...

Bear in mind this is considered a relatively affluent part of SW London. Not Mayfair, certainly, but 'nice'.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31106963.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-26852137.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-15865071.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-17549664.html

All over 15% drops in asking price. Admittedly they've all been on for a while (the lowest 27 weeks) but that I think just adds grist to the mill?

I've been watching this area for 3 years, now, and this is definitely the 'worst' it's been so far.

[No Hpc In London...]

I'm always hearing how for some reason London is different. OK, I can believe that in some very specific parts (Knightsbridge, Mayfair, Chelsea) perhaps different rules DO apply - rich people from all over the world want to live there (at least while London is a financial centre, but that's a different conversation...)

However, why is South West Putney any different from the rest of the country? Relatively normal people live there, with mortgages and jobs. Interest rates go up, mortgage becomes more expensive, you eventually choose (or are forced) to sell your house. Seems obvious to me.

Anyway, I'm looking to buy around there (just a modest flat, nothing clever) and the prices have been remaining about the same as 5 years ago. That was until today, when I saw this:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-17549664.html

Admittedly it was quite expensive to start with, but those of you with PB can see that surely even the famously 'stable' London prices must surely be under pressure. It only takes a few of these (I assume) pressured sales to take hold in a market like this, and it seriously affects the average sales prices (at such low volumes.) Then the panic sets in.

I say keep the faith, brothers and sisters, even if you are looking to buy in the big city.

Sorry for such a long first post!

(PS What's that? You say it's still about 100% overpriced? Oh yes, I know... but you've got to start somewhere...)