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Sir Harold m

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Everything posted by Sir Harold m

  1. Great post and absolutely spot on. Anyone who tries to play an end game with economics is already deluded, there is no longer an endgame. In the past when a debtor nation like the USA ran out of money, it's creditors squeezed it and either war or an orderly transfer of balance of power occurred ( usually under the threat of war) Now the USA can keep borrowing indefinitely until the powers that be in its creditor nations stop lending it. The creditors have the problem because forcing low wages on their people enables them to service the debtor nation and keeps them in power. If they stopped servicing the debtors they have two choices, they commit suicide because their control has gone ( it only existed whilst they had slaves to run up surpluses) or they try to call in their debts from a nation that can blow them out of the sky. The external us deficit does not exist as it will either be serviced indefinitely or the debtor will refuse to pay . Of course we could have stagnation and a refusal of the creditor to keep feeding the beast but to what end .? They would simply be accelerating the default and thus liquidation of their own assets for nothing
  2. Correct and incorrect. A price tag is an invitation to treat so I believe, the customer proffering the goods at the till constitutes the offer, the ringing up on the till is the acceptance. If you think about it the store at some point MUST engage in a contract otherwise they could recall goods back at any time after you leave the store. I think I'm correct in assuming that the offer and acceptance occur at the till and as such when you tender your cash as consideration then as long as it's legal the store can accept it as payment or the goods are yours for free. Please don't take this as advice as I'm not qualified but I think this is the case from my distant study days ( unless it's changed)
  3. Shite journalism. Why didn't he ask them at what price they'd sell for ? There'd be a flood of buyers at £100k I'd imagine . Then we could have flushed out their real anxiety which is the fact they're not getting enough free money . Besides , if they'd stuck twigs in vases they'd have cleared £400k sale by now
  4. I'm opposed to the opening of borders but we also have a responsibility to look after people we've invited here , that's something I hope we don't lose about our National character
  5. I am all for free trade areas and free movement however the issue some have is that with a welfare state in place we need to protect the wage levels of our unskilled otherwise there is no incentive to work . Letting skilled people in is 100% doesn't effect this. Allowing unskilled workers to compete for wages can cause knock on issues. We should welcome all people to live and work here ( I say this a ukip voter) but where is the protection for low earners who now have to compete . Don't get me started on the subsidy this will provide to housing benefit dependant landlords whilst pricing out median wage renters . Protecting our poorest workers is far more compassionate than any lefty ranting about daily mail etc but I suppose some people want cheaper cleaners and don't mind whom they exploit
  6. People who bang on about misguided ukip voters letting labour in are spectacularly missing the point. Ukip voters are by and large anti eu. They ( I include me) know that unless the Tories change and I mean properly change their policy on Europe then there is no chance ( save winning themselves) of us getting a vote on the eu. The only leverage they have is to demonstrate to the Tories that ukip can stop them winning and let labour win unless they yield. It's a big game of chicken and Cameron will try all kinds of ruses to try and deflect ukip support. What Cameron doesn't get is that ukip supporters have been lied to so many times by the Tories that they no longer fear labour, in fact five more disastrous years under lib lab will only bolster ukip come 2020 so who cares if labour get in. Some people need to realise that grown ups sometimes care about January and not just Christmas and if it takes three elections to get our way we couldn't care less about who is in power come 2015. We need a vote and we will get it
  7. Not true if you look at substance over form. All of these countries have some nominal form of power sharing or split legislatures however they all share one common theme which is that the vast bulk of executive power is held by one branch and this usually emanates from one party. Of course there are occasionally cohabitations but there is usually one party in administration and there is usually one or more major oppositions posing as an alternative . It leavesost people in no doubt who to blame or reward
  8. Why is it broken , if anything history shows the absolute opposite. Whenever there is a coalition it inevitably leads to less accountability , more excuses , less electoral 'punishment' and ultimately it becomes replaced by totalitarianism. The us/uk /Australian/Canadian model now also effectively taken up by the French also has proven to be way more resilient . It may lead to inefficiency , waste , etc etc but the thought that one side can be allowed to implement the things they stated they would and the ability of the electorate to turf them out and replace them with an alternative allows for everyone to feel their day will come to make someone else sit in twats corner . We are dangerously close to consensus politics here in the uk as no party can feasibly rule without centtrising their agenda around cheap credit , high taxes , high spending and deficits.
  9. I don't think there is a moral way out unfortunately. Dropping bombs on people is not moral Sending in troops with no exit strategy is not moral Arming uncontrollable rebels is not moral Ignoring the situation is not moral I sometimes think offering the top elite of these countries amnesty, cash, and protection in exile may be horrendous but may well be the best solution whatever their crimes .
  10. Not sure about wars etc but I can't see the governments of the west allowing tapering of Qe and even if they do they'll try and find another way of trying to defuse the debt by cheapening money, just my own humble opinion. Deficits are not being eradicated and they need to borrow or print
  11. I don't get why if people are rushing to Gbp then why are yields going up ? Rising yields indicate the markets expectation of inflation which is the exact opposite of an sort existing currency . If people are buying Gbp assets then yields should be falling as this reflects demand for Gbp paper . The only exception is that somebody is liquidating both foreign currency assets and long term paper on order to hold cash . Why ?
  12. I have to confess that my flabber is well and truly gasted. Now, ignoring long term doom, inevitability , bankers etc etc but just looking at the market prices of recent days I just don't get it. Ok, I see that the general sentiment is that the Fed will taper qe soon. This can be corroborated by reductions in stock indices especially emerging markets and rising yields on bonds. However, i thought that it was generally thought that if rates go higher in the US then the UK will face one of three options , either (I) the boe raises rates to defend GBP, (ii) the boe raises rates but Not enough to defend GBP, (iii) the BOE happily let's GBP fall because they see that as a solution . Looking at recent climbs in GBP why are people assuming (I) instead of (ii) or (iii) . Carney has even signalled his intention to target employment instead of CPI so it's (iii) if you believe him or (ii) if you don't . I'm really really shocked that we've seen a relative climb in GBP recently . Can anyone think of reasons why ? I confess I'm searching my brain for a rational or irrational reason .
  13. That's because it is. I write to the chap from my local authority who were taking part in the lloyds scam to assist ftb's to acquire finance using local authority money. I pointed out that the local authority was not only buying the mezzanine tranche of a sub prime loan but that they were doing so at an amazingly low rate ( remember they receive interest). He didn't even appear to understand the statement instead he responded with utter tripe about the fact that the la was receiving interest and that there was little or no risk . I can not believe how quickly history is repeating itself . Maybe Gidiot and Cammers are trying to engineer tge mother of booms and busts so they can really pick up the land at dirt cheap prices when the crash comes. For now I reckon it's at least five years away and by then £200k debt might be paid off by most wedding rings .
  14. Three true stories all ( kind of) connected to this. When I first moved to London in 91 I dossed on a mates floor in crouch end /muswell hill. I'd read about the Nilsen killings and asked him if he knew where the flat was. The answer was straight across the road over the junction and you could see it from his window. Funny thing was I'd been for a walk the night before to smoke a couple of ciggies ( mate was a virulent anti smoker) and I'd pretty much spent ten minutes loitering at the foot of the garden to the flats . Wonder what the neighbours though I was doing ? A few months later I worked with a guy whose flat mate used to work with Nilsen . Apparently he used to bring in home made curries to share with colleagues ( not sure how much bs that was but the guy who told me wasn't prone to bs himself ) Finally a few years back I lived in Surrey and I knew of a murder in a particular road six months earlier . An EA called me up to describe the bargain house she was selling , I twigged from the huge discount that it was the murder house and I kept fishing for details as to why it was do cheap . Eventually I asked "is it the murder house" you could almost hear here brain churning as she hesitated for three or four seconds before saying 'yes'
  15. Seriously ?? I've heard cable mentioned thousands of times on this site. I've also heard the Gbp usd rate referred to as cable on countless TV programmes about finance.
  16. Hmmm, a mate of mine who worked in the industry told me nearly all of london's water emanates from Oxfordshire , would not a damn there dry out London within weeks? Also, despite your post about oil fields etc I'm fairly sure London imports all of its power
  17. My favourite kind of but not really related story was when the bird on the national weather openly stated that there 'were some cloudy areas with rain but not to worry as they will move up north later in the day" The London metropoles really have no idea how much they are resented and hated for their attitude. The day will come in my lifetime when the army will be needed to ensure water and power gets through to the south east because it will dawn on everyone else that by providing it at cost to the southeast they are subsidising London by about a trillion quid a year as that is what it would cost for London to import its water supplies should the rest if England keep it . That's why I laugh my nuts off every time I hear the ******** about the south east subsidising the rest .
  18. Neither estate agents nor financial advisors have a clue about demand when it comes to housing market. There is only one limiting factor and only one ( until there is a crash) and that is availability of finance . For various reasons , sometimes correct , sometimes fear, sometimes greed, mostly because it has been drilled into them since birth but there is an inexhaustible demand for house purchases . Income is no longer a limiting factor as long as financing and affordability are present ( not real affordability of course) In recent years the banks have used Qe to build up reserves and liquidity , they have no interest in 80+ Ltv because they are not profitable ( due to capital restraints) . If you get some other mug (us) to give the banks their 20% haircut then they will fall over each other to lend . This will bubble further prices , Gidiot knows this and the sugar pill will see them reelected in 2015 and will help them win the referendum to finally remove our status as a nation state . HPC ers have three choices I reckon ... 1) borrow to the hilt and get a house to flip prior to 2016, then emigrate 2) for those with long term mortgages already I'd take the opportunity to fix a good rate in early mid 2014 and try to hedge capital loss , then when you've done your living emigrate 3) emigrate before it goes tits Thanks Gidiot , crash Gordon et al , this country will be full of starving , rioting , benefit claiming Jeremy kyle scum and Nobody else by 2020. See how that works out
  19. This is why I disagree with the use of the word 'fraud' that is oft used on here. The leveraging and descent down the quality ladder by lenders was not only transparent but advertised to us all by them . Help to buy may be potentially the most comically ill thought out ( or possibly simply corrupt) method ever conceived in order to create a sugar rush pre election but in fairness to Gidiot he's wearing his dunce hat pretty openly on this one
  20. It is inevitable. Printing never works because of such inherent contradictions . In fact printing begins when interest rates are kept lower than inflation and not allowed to work to establish the required equilibrium. The only way 'out' becomes printing and that is a spiral . There is a chance for certain individual fiat issuers to escape ( for example if the market is dumb enough to maintain its confidence in a particular fiat's value whilst it prints, then that dust issuer could exchange the printed crap for hard currency or physical assets such as gold , oil , or productive capacity) however the whole world system will still need to absorb the extra paper at some point and this can only occur by increasing output at a time of reducing money supply ( yeah right that'll happen) There is no escape and no pain free solution . Either debtors go bust or creditors have their assets removed. No other way out, no alternative at all .
  21. Correction , it was an international one day match but still almost as good .
  22. Something weird happened to me when I discovered eBay. I used to discard 'things' after a while and was a terrible wastrel. After spending loads on extensions we decided to furnish on great quality but second hand furniture only on eBay ( or jumble sales, car boots etc) The fact that we tracked items, researched their real market price ( or equivalent new price) and then had the excitement of trying to 'win' the auctions, then followed by early hours long journeys to pick up etc suddenly created a ' bond' of some sort with the items. I'm completely unpractical as a craftsman so putting other 'efforts' in gave me much more satisfaction of ownership so I actually 'love' these items and care and respect them more than if I'd had done impulsive soulless purchasing experience. Added to that was the joy of knowing you'd saved . We bought a nearly new dresser for £200 that was still retailing in the sane branded store for £600. We spent done of the 'savings' ( our max bid was £300 ) on a family treat meal . The whole day was pretty meaningless to the rest of the world but for us it was a lovely satisfying day and ill probably hoard that item forever . Weird and illogical but special to us and I still have fond memories of that day, especially as I spent the day cleaning the item whilst listening to uninterrupted test match special all day . Good times .
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