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Everything posted by Van

  1. Wriglesworth: *Yawn* And is the same Phil Spencer who agreed with Allslop that the market would recover in September/October? These press merchants need to be taken out and shot.
  2. Yes, TTRTR, true, but in order to sell it and get the commission, they have to get it onto their books first against competing EAs. This is probably where there is the most divergence between EAs. Some may give an honest appraisal of the market that prices have softened and encourage more realistic pricing; the cowboy agents will try to convince the vendor that the market is still strong and that they can still get a fantastic price for it, perhaps then asking the vendor to cut the asking price a little further down the road.
  3. Additionally, some of the readvertised properties are on with a different EA. That, of course, means that the first EA has been unable to sell it - buyer gets another few EAs around who are then compelled to say they can get more for it than other EAs, so have to talk the market up and make the vendor believe the last EA was incompetent.
  4. Yes, there are still one or two wishful thinkers out there who think they can readvertise a sticky property at the same or even higher price, and some buyer will magically come forward to snap it up. A trick I have noticed that EAs are beginning to use is to take the picture of the property from a very different angle to make it look like a new property. I suspect this might also be happening with pictures that show us the interior of the house, but not the exterior.
  5. Yes, Topher. I like your reasoning The trait all human possess, unless we have all suddenly become buddist monks, is the desire to maximize our wealth. In a rising market, the clamber is to get on the ladder because of the fear that prices will never return to their current level - that people will be "priced our forever". This pushes the market up. In a falling market, the fear of being priced out is gone, replaced by the desire to get the most for your money. This naturally means holding off buying while something bigger and better comes into your price range, couple with the fear of "losing money" on buying something today which will be worth less tomorrow. In both cases, behaviour of the heard is driven by the desire to maximize wealth. At the moment, we have the stagnation/denial stage. It's only a matter of time before gravity takes over, and then desire of the buyer to maximize their wealth will drive the market down. It's a self-fullfilling mechanism!
  6. Sorry, but this is the same crap. I was tempted to stop reading right there - the rest of the article is usual GSD that we've heard before. The corniest thing about Capital Economics is their absurd "20%" figure - as if they believe that the property market will fall, but that there will be some sort of magical safety net that underpins the market. It's GREED that has pushed the market to these levels, not economic fundamentals, and conversely FEAR will drive it down once it's clear that the economic fundamentals cannot sustain anything like the current price (or even a 20% correction).
  7. Any tax threshold that doesn't annually increase by at least the rate of inflation is a regressive tax that increases our overall tax burden. Brown has been very subversive in how he has manipulated the tax bands (especially income tax) to keep the rate of rate the same while squeezing middle England dry.
  8. Here is my tuppence worth (these are not fantasy figures, these are actually from my recent STR experience!): £148,500 (leasehold sale) EA sell fee: £2350 (inc VAT - flat rate, equivilent to 1.35%) Solicitor's fees: £800 Weekend's van hire: £125 Assume I buy back at same price: Solicitor's fees: £800 Survey: £200 Stamp duty: £1480 Another weekend's van hire: £125 Total cost: £5580, or 3.76% 3.76% - that's it!! Sure, I had to get a couple of friends to help me move.. labour cost? A few rounds down the pub.
  9. 210K offer on 219k asking price.. that's a good deal in this market. Average percentage of asking price achieved is 93.3% in London and falling, according to Hometrack's September survey.
  10. You only have to look at the by-election result in Hartlepool last night where UKIP pushed the Tories into 4th place to see how strong the anti-euro sentiment is. Polls can be doctored to show whatever they want, but the reality is the anti-euro supporters will turn out to vote against it, while, the ever dwindling pro-euro lobby will more likely sit at home. Blair/Brown only support the euro in public because it is better to be seen as supportive of something rather than against it - a party & govt that is identified for what it stands for rather than what it stands against (as the Tories have become). I don't think Blair/Brown believe they could really win a referendum, regardless of whether Brown's 5 economic "tests" are passed, so they'll never go to the country with it and instead will just bumble along with the status quo for another parliament.
  11. Oct 1 ------ Price band lower limit No of houses volume % of market change from last week Total value of price band Value % of market £100,000 1 0.20% 0 £100,000 0.08% £125,000 19 3.81% -1 £2,375,000 1.87% £150,000 42 8.42% 1 £6,300,000 4.97% £175,000 40 8.02% 0 £7,000,000 5.52% £200,000 38 7.62% -3 £7,600,000 5.99% £225,000 96 19.24% -7 £21,600,000 17.04% £250,000 51 10.22% 2 £12,750,000 10.06% £275,000 79 15.83% -4 £21,725,000 17.14% £300,000 23 4.61% 4 £6,900,000 5.44% £325,000 25 5.01% 3 £8,125,000 6.41% £350,000 20 4.01% 0 £7,000,000 5.52% £375,000 28 5.61% 0 £10,500,000 8.28% £400,000 37 7.41% -1 £14,800,000 11.67% New houses on the market: 42 Net change: -6 Total houses for sale: 499 Total value of houses for sale: £126,775,000 Average asking price: £254,058 Change on last week: £1,088
  12. Poppycock! The Govt has been relying on the HP bubble to underpin borrowing and keep the feel good factor in the air. They've done everything they can to support the bubble from fiddling unemployment stats to abandoning the RPI to introducing the key worker scheme and REITS. I genuinely believe that most of the Labour party are so detatched from reality that they think high house prices are a good thing. Financial intelligence is not something that most people possess, whatever walk of life they are are. The Blairites havebeen brainwashed in the great HP bubble as much as the general public.
  13. It is these people that I feel most genuinely sorry for. The EA is certainly in breach of their professional duty to pass on all genuine offers to the vendor. I hope all the scumsucking leeches who behave this immorally lose their jobs in the crash, because they certainly deserve to. When faced with all improfessional conduct at any level, I always ask to speak directly to their supervisor. That usually gets their attention pretty sharpish.
  14. Good grief, someone got out the wrong side of bed this morning! Agree, though. People are financially irresponsible and do not understand how money works. Home finance should be taught in every secondary school in the interest of a meritoratic society, but this would spell the end for banks and financial institutions as we know them. As they are the real power which drives this country and every other market economy (not governments), there's no way we'll ever see this happen.
  15. 10% is maybe a tad high for "break even" point for STRs. The average house costs - what - 200k? Selling & Buying costs might come to £10k, so I would say more like 5%. Of course, if the market was guaranteed to fall by no more than 5% (or even 10%), it wouldn't be worth STRing as the risk to reward would be too great. Also depends how good a rental deal you can get, too. IF you spend a couple of years renting at below mortgage interest cost, then you'll be even further quids in.
  16. Nice spying, Topher! You could get a quote for your own house. The EA who marketed my flat was quite happy to let me know how much other flats in the block had recently sold for. If this is a bit too lairly, you could pretend to be a buyer and ask realistically how much such a property would cost!
  17. I repeat my view, brainclamp, that the possibility of an unpopular Govt winning a referendum to join the Euro is slimmer than Twiggy's thigh! The only way that we make a case for joining the Euro is if our economy is up the creek and Europe is booming, but paradoxically, what would that mean for Euro and UK IRs respectively? It just ain't gonna happen for the foreseeable future!
  18. Getting back to the original question, I don't hate EAs. sure there are a fair few cowboys, but I think many or most EAs are just ordinary people who advertise and sell houses. Remember, when picking an EA to sell your house, choose the EA you are most comfortable with, and not simply the one who says it's worth the most. It's greed that leads to the cowboy practices and dissatisfaction from vendors. I appointed the same EA who sold me the house because I thought they ran a very slick and professional operation, and have to say that they were superb.
  19. I first put it on the market in March, when the market was just about ready to peak (we only know this with the benefit of hindsight, of course). Had two aborted offers, but they "changed their minds" - one said he couldn't afford the rising IRs, and another just after Merv gave his infamous warning speech. Eventually found a firm buyer in late June, and only took a couple of months to exchange and completion in August. At the time my place was advertised at £150k; within a few weeks, a lot of other similar properties all appeared on the market at £160k. I would have gone to the market a couple of months earlier (Jan or Feb), but would have had to pay a redemption penalty. I now realise with the benefit of hindsight that I was incredibly fortunate to have got out when I did. It was quite a stressful time, because I was also made redundant in May (for the better, as it now turns out). If unemployment creeps up just a little, it will kill the property market dead. There's nothing worse than the thought of losing job and being unable to keep up the repayments on your house.
  20. I told one potential buyer I thought prices were going to crash (the very first viewing, as it turned out) and he looked at me as if I was a raving lunatic. Anyway, I didn't like the guy (BTLer), and he thought I was going to let it go for less than market price. I quickly learned to be more, ahem, "economical with the truth" and instead said that I wanted a change of area (which I did) and was going to rent for a while as a chance to check out the new area, and because exchanging contracts on two places at the same time was too much of a nightmare (which it is!).
  21. Nice one, gilf! 97% of asking price.. good going in this market, although of course you weren't kite-flying, unlike so many other muppets out there. What are you going to do with your STR fund? As you say, it takes AGES to sells a house, even in a relatively good market as we had for the first half of this year. Most people trying to offload now are going to be looking for a buyer well into next year while prices are continually chased down month by month. OTOH, I've convinced my sister to sell her house (she rents it out, btw), and her tennents wanted to buy it off her right away, so there's still buyers out there and good properties will still attract interest.
  22. Very good thoughts, chandelina. I'm surprised that a $20 jump in oil price - almost a doubling - can have only a 1% inflationary effect. Can you let us know how you arrived at this figure? It's very early days to be saying rates have or are near their peak. Britain is ahead of other countries in the economic cycle, because primarily of our propensity for borrowing. Gordon Brown can fantasize that it's his economic management, but the truth is that British consumers have more credit cards than the rest of Europe put together. Also, nobody is very sure how much spare capacity is left in the economy. If output gap is small, we could be in for some unexpected inflation sooner than people might want to believe. I still think, though, that rising US rates and Euro rates next year will force up to keep rates at or above 5% to keep the pound strong and insulate us from importing inflation.
  23. I have to agree with Topher. We will not join the Euro for the foreseeable future - the British electorate are so against the idea of a single currency that a referundum is unwinnable, certainly within a timeframe that will save the housing market. Blair used all his political capital shortly after the last election. His ratings and popularity have skydived, and he no longer has the charisma to persuay an increasing skeptical electorate. And Euro rates won't stay 2% forever..
  24. ED's article is refreshingly spin-free, IMO. He makes the point that trading up is difficult in the current market. Was watching Alex Bannister on Breakfast this morning and he also conceed the point that trading up was now harder than before, with the difference between a sem and a detached having climbed from around £40k to £70k. Incidentally, the BBC business reporter (not Declan) came across as a complete twit, especially when he kept going on about "upgrading" and then referred to AB as ALAN Bannister.
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