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House Price Crash Forum


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About slogger

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  1. they can probably hide small fluctuations in adjustments (i.e. 1-2% over a year) - but they're not going to hide 20-30% + drops!
  2. again - no data from you - I dont think my case is a historical lucky /isolated case - a large number of people fall under this as most bought well before 2007/2008 and are sitting on large amounts of equity - easily able to take a 70-80% fall in property prices and still be above water, its an unfortunate few who bought in last few years who arent. under what conditions is it worth renting over your lifetime? can you answer that -- or are you saying you can time the market well and know when to buy and when to rent - if so you must be seriously wealthy .. if not then probably just a dreamer.
  3. erm no it isnt - to buy a house costs less than renting, other than just stupid,inane comments educate us - show us the figures you think are likely over the lifetime of buying v renting .. I've backed up my statements with figures of 10% interest rates, 60% property price falls and rents being ~same as IR ... buying still stacks up over the lifetime. other than just making snide comments to people who have different opinions than yourself please try and explain...yes over short term buying then selling doesnt make sense - even if property prices stayed level then you'd lose on stamp duty/moving/selling costs etc etc .. what we're talking about here is whats the best way of paying for somewhere to live over our lifetimes (buy/rent/..other?)
  4. agree 100% - over last couple of years and maybe over next year or so it will have been better to have rented than purchased if you sell after only a few years, my question is (answer of which I am unsure!) will it be better to buy over next 20 years compared to renting over next 60.
  5. what would the rental be if IR was 10%... if say rent was about equal to IR - which I dont think it would be as most people would be renting then as unable to buy- then whats the cost of purchase over 20 years c.f. rent over 60 .. so after 20 years paid off house - now worth 200k instead of 500k, interest paid is ~300k so pay in total 800k - rental over 20 years is ~1,000,000 (but probably more with inflation) ... then pay another 1,000,000 every 20 years for next 40 years c.f. ~0 for mortgage.. also with house have 200k asset even after 60% crash c.f. 0 with rental again ready to stand corrected... would like someone with better knowledge to do a more detailed calculation c.f. the one above as thats what we're all after. of course could have interest rates at 20% rental at 2% and HPC of 100% which makes figures very different - however above I think could happen..?
  6. thats the figures I'm not really sure about - I'm thinking(maybe incorrectly!)that the cost of buying a house to live in is less than the cost of renting one to live in.. forget about the fact that renting has for me other downsides I mentioned previously .. would love to see the maths - ie cost of house purchase over next 20 years or so c.f. cost of renting same house over next 60-70 years or so..agree mine may be too simplistic or missing something!
  7. can only speak on and individual basis - bought house 15 years ago for 150k, wages 50k so 3 times salary - had no deposit as lost money on first house - 100% mortgage. interest @6% so was around 9k pa ~ 18% of gross wages over last 15 years house now worth ~500k, wages 150k so just over 3 times salary, interest at 1.5% so would be 7500 pa -i.e less than it was 15 years ago but also as a % of total salary much much less...5% c.f. 18% (also assuming I had no deposit now) so to buy interest is 7500 - to rent is ~25000 pa ...
  8. can only speak on and individual basis - bought house 15 years ago for 150k, wages 50k so 3 times salary - had no deposit as lost money on first house - 100% deposit. interest @6% so was around 9k pa ~ 18% of gross wages over last 15 years house now worth ~500k, wages 150k so just over 3 times salary, interest at 1.5% so would be 7500 pa -i.e less than it was 15 years ago but also as a % of total salary much much less...5% c.f. 18% (also assuming I had no deposit now) so to buy interest is 7500 - to rent is ~25000 pa ...
  9. yep -have heard that - people tend to minimise short term pain/maximise short term pleasure at the expense of the long term - does lead to bubbles. I guess the $500000 question is how much will rent cost me over next 60 years (or remaining lifespan!) c.f. renting over same period...ideally I want to be in a situation when I'm 50+ where my mortgage is nill and I dont have to pay rent for the next (hopefully!) 50 years .. even if my property is valued at half what I bought it for I want my monthly rent to be zero - not 40% of whatever my income is then. Also I'm not saying I know the answer - far from it - however I just dont want to be in the awful situation that renting puts people in as I get older . even if financially I do lose money on the house it will still be worth something and I'll have no rent to pay and wont be forced into living somewhere else or in a property thats badly maintained.
  10. no - i agree I did say I was fortunate, not clever - my first house I bought in the 90s and lost money on,nothing clever there!; what I'm trying to say is over last 15-20 years its been good and I agree probably wont be the same over the next 15-20 years; also agree house prices will probably go down over next year or so ... just trying to say that as property prices have gone down 20% on average in this area (50% on some new build flats) - also not even taking into account inflation, and also wage rises are taking place (finding it very hard to recruit - lot of people afraid to move jobs as dont want to be last ones in a company) - then over next 20 years I see rents rising a lot and being more expensive than buying...even taking into account mortgage rates now ~2-3% its cheaper to buy my house at the current inflated price than it is to rent it...
  11. OK ... not after being flamed here but I'm sure I will be ... first off I agree house prices are going down and now is pretty certainly not the time to buy. However (!!) - having seen family who've rented over the last 40 years and who are still renting the really big (non financial) problem is lack of tenure - we need in the UK for tenants to be given more long term rights - people I know who've been rented essentially have been forced out of their homes on numerous occassions when landlords decide to sell or go bust..also have endured poor maintenance several times - all this really needs to be addressed before I'd consider it with a family and young children as a long term option - possibly short term yes. Another point (financial) - I bought my house 14 years ago - overpaid a bit each month - current monthly interest is £34.00 - on repayment its 300, however I pay around 500pcm to pay off capital further - its a five bed house in a nice area, 40 mins from City of London - original price was 150k, went up to about 600k but now worth about 500k - to rent this house now costs around 2k pcm - also rents increasing here ... would be very unfortunate to have rented over the last 14 years ... having said that I can easily see property falling another 20% (maybe more maybe less none of us really knows - thats the problem!) so short term coming into the market I would suggest renting over next year or so- but over next 20-30 years I'm betting rents will carry on increasing with inflation and make buying a house financially worthwhile - especially if you can pay off mortgage early whilst interest rates low...also as an aside I'm currently seeing wage/contract inflation in this area for the first time in a few years.
  12. out of interest (and forgive my ignorance as not 100% familiar with these stats - or stats in general) - is the price/earnings ratio that of:- (house purchase price - deposit)/individual income or house purchase price/individual income is total household income here? i.e. when I bought first house it was 3* my income and didnt include my partners income (back in 1994!) - so house price was three times my income but 1.5 times household income...
  13. houses are overpriced, they should be lower ... however a lot of people dont have to sell at the moment - until we get a lot of forced sales then prices wont fall quickly - i think a lot of people will just stay put....however if(when!) unemployment rises, interest rates rise and govt/banks pull the rug on supporting the house of cards then it will all come tumbling down...but then those three things have to occur in order for larger falls (some to a greater or lesser extent..) as a bit of anecdotal evidence property is down ~25% in the area I live in (East Herts) - not including inflation over the last 2-3 years either, which would make the figure higher... so if we have property even staying still and inflation increasing 5% or so pa then could be looking at ~40% in a few years time - quite a large fall but not having the dramatic affect I'd hope for .. however this is on extremely lower volumes of property being sold over last few years compared to the pre 2007/8 'peak'. in terms of valuing property - very hard - for me personally i've stayed in same house for 14 years .. initially mortgage as a % of take home salary was about 20%, now its about 5% - would be ~15% if bought house today with no deposit - so slightly cheaper for me now (higher salary, lower interest rates)..appreciate this is a specific case and not a general case, but most people i work with/live near are in a similar position - ie overpaid mortgage a lot, mortgage is lower cost than council tax or travel now!!
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