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carrick01

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Posts posted by carrick01

  1. for info - found a couple of old brochures which give prices for what was a new development in mallusk/glengormley.

    Apartments are now roughly £90-99k (asking price)

    https://www.propertynews.com/Property/Newtownabbey/ARO11310/25-Aylesbury-Court/437221311/Page1

    Townhouses are now roughly £140k

    https://www.propertynews.com/Property/Glengormley/MSL669586/15-Aylesbury-Court/437221311/Page1

    Semi detached are roughly £150k

    https://www.propertynews.com/Property/Newtownabbey/CGR102606000379/27-Aylesbury-Road/437221311/Page1

    In the brochure dated 10th November 2006

    Apartments £160k

    Semi detached £241k

    Detatched £250k

    In brochure dated 8th Mar 2007

    Apartments £210k

    Town houses £295k

     

  2. 1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

    I still think spending £200K on a 2 bed flat on the Ormeau Road is utterly mental. But I appreciate I may be in the minority thinking that.

    The argument isn' really about prices being too high its whether prices have gone back to the pre crash levels for some parts of belfast  I don't think it has but only really know the areas that I was interested in or lived on.   For south parade some of these properties would have been classed as townhouses - up to £600k.  Some them have rv value of over £300k - do we think these properties where only getting this at the height of the crazy prices?  

    If a judge says in legal terms a house did sell then it is a value that i think is valid.

     

    I think prices are too high but most people on this forum has bought including myself

  3. 4 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    As people as said already we can't get prices from land registry which makes it really hard to tell but from a news story about 50 malone park which seems to be smaller (rv £1.05m against rv £1.25m for 45) was sold for £3.5m although the buyer did try to get out of the sale.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-21277512

    Other places that I have lived in are definitely not even close to what they got to at the very height at of the boom but don't know what ormeau road was like but here is a link from a guardian article

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2008/sep/13/homes

    Not a big choice on the market for ormeau at the moment but don't seem to be close to the prices quoted in the article - although virtually nothing was selling in 2008.

  4. 15 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

    Lots of people with lots of money out there it would seem.

    What do we think of this flat?

    https://www.propertynews.com/Property/Belfast/ST0111211101253006638/Flat-3-2-Stranmillis-Mews/432748687/

    Wouldn't be what I would have been looking for in this area - looks to have been rented with what furniture is in it.  Would prefer a terrace house without the management fees at this price. Looks to be overpriced but we will see.

    See a 2 bedroom flat for £85k closer to the city centre

    https://www.propertypal.com/apt-35-cromwell-court-110-cromwell-road-belfast/462964

    May be something wrong with development but it would be worth looking at.

  5. 1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

    The ponzi model depends on not sure few working past 70 but All. It will collapse if they don't. 

     

    It's not about gardens. It's about lifestyle full stop. We're giving the young a poor quality of life and loading them up with debt to pay for the ones before. The moving the goal posts a little further every few years. 

    It'll get to the stage where they can afford kids, and then the whole infinite debt model just collapses. 

    If you are thinking of selling up and banking the "crazy increase"  you are basically hoping that someone (probably a younger couple) buys your house and enough of this type goes under so you can buy the same or better at a lower price?   You are working the Ponzi scheme and VI in drops.

  6. 13 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

    And yes, I think the state pension age will go up a lot - but - I think there'll be more people on benefits due to illness when they hit a certain age to keep them fed until the pension kicks in.

    Again this is something that will cause issues in the future but again there will be people working in there 70s and beyond. Probably some by choice.

    I not saying prices are okay and really would like to see them go down but is everybody going to live in a house with a big garden.  I know plenty that has no interest in having a garden (even ones with kids). There is no typical family any more and probably never was but there are not far more single people, single parent families. People getting divorced and living on there own - getting divorced in there 60s.  Apartments and terrace houses have there use - they need to be regulated (size rise) and service charges. 

  7. 14 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

    The person I was referring to has over £500,000 of property assets, and a big fat pension due to kick in when he's 60, so he'll be fine.

    Why are we worry about him buying a house or struggling with the mortgage payments then.

  8. 23 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

    Agreed - I have a friend who's in his late 50's and he can't be bothered with work any more. He's in OK health but for many people your 50's is where the wheels start falling off health-wise in my experience. I don't see anything to indicate that today's 30-somethings will be in much better health at 60 than their parents generation. If you do force people to work to 70 you're going to have many rather unproductive employees coming in and doing the bare minimum.

    Everybody has different life experience but I know people that are working into there late 70s.  Some through choice and some  not.  I know employees in their 20s that are quite "unproductive" and do the bare minimum. Some in manual jobs and some not. For people under 48 its already 68 - so do you really think its going less than 70 for someone in their 20s?

    If in the 50s someone ""can't be bothered with work any more" are we really expecting him to own or aspire to a house?

    How many typical 20 year olds do you know that are saving for the pension except through company, public sector or government "workplace pension" scheme.  

    We will all just rent detached house with big gardens the rest of our life - that's the answer.  Belfast will look a lot nicer but also a lot bigger.

     

  9. The CML report show the average age for a FTB in northern Ireland is 30 and most people seem to be borrowing on a lower multiplier than I thought.  With life expectancy increasing (In last 40 years it has increased by 10 years - maybe stalled now) and likelihood of the pension age being 70 or above it will give some sensible people 40 years to get mortgage free (and if you are sensible and maybe lucky far less).

    For most people (whether single or as a couple) there first home they buy isn't the home they stay for the rest of their life.  If I was in my twenties I would still buy an apartment or terrace house (not in the city centre) because spending £6k a year would bugging me (unless I thought the price of these type of properties was going down £6k each year). I know there are some drawbacks and extra expenses that you don't realise at the time but I still would - some people choose not to do this .

    Some people seems to been lucky with the rent they pay.  I rented in 2011 a semi in Stranmillis below the college and cost £600 per month and there was good selection to pick from, now I only see a few at £850 a month or above - that's £10k a year

     

     

  10. welcome back to NI.

    Probably the wrong forum to ask about buy to let.

    If you knew where you wanted to live in NI -  buy now (imho).  Assuming that £180k would cover it - less hassle.

    Not sure where you want to live - rent a house and check if you like the area and if it suits your needs. Then buy a house in the area after a year.  Dont think prices will go up much but dont think they will down either.

    Buy to let a cheaper property and use the money to pay the mortgage on the house that you live could work but could also be so much hassle.  if it goes well great if not  do you have the time to deal with the issues.  House repairs, tenant issues, rates to pay, landlord registration,  unpaid rent, manage property yourself or via estate agent. Could also benefit for capital appreciation but few people was caught out thinking the same 10 years ago (properties in general).  If interest rates go up the value of buy to let would more affected than other properties (imho).

    I didn't want a mortgage when I was in my 50s. I worked hard to achieve this (but I was also lucky). 

  11. On 25/06/2017 at 3:12 PM, blameitonblair1 said:

    Hi everyone

     

    I just came across this conversation and wanted to get people's views on the Mallusk village area especially from those living there a while.

     

    Originally from Newry and renting in South Belfast. However,  we cannot afford to buy a house here. Therefore attracted to the new developments in Mallusk Village- Blackrock, Mayfield, Aylesbury, Dermont, the Cleaver etc. However, I have no idea about the area and if residents have experienced any social/sectarian issues. I am a Catholic and my wife a Protestant. Also, have prices increased, decreased or remained the same since you purchased?

     

    Any advice would be very much appreciated.

     

    Thanks in advance.

     

    Sean

    Can't really say that much about blackrock. It is hard to give advice on this because you could have a house in this area and have no problems.  Would recommend maybe renting for a year and seeing if you like the area.  I lived in the mayfield development and would never live there again.  Loads of issues with anti social behaviour but never really heard about it in the blackrock development.  There is now a bus service which is good, when there is heavy snow (rare i know) you do have problems with getting to work or back from work.  The know there was a park for the mayfield development but everything in was vandalised. Mayfield had a nickname "new ardoyne" when i was there but never heard of any issues about religion. Checking prices for mayfield they haven't went up in last 5 years but definitely less properties on the market.

    Knew people in the Alderley development that absolutely loved the area - no issues - got the bus everyday to work - no issues with antisocial behaviour. That may be different now.

  12. 2 hours ago, darkmarket said:

    I'm pointing out your measure was the biggest bubble in NI's history and in Europe, and that's a stupid measure to use.

    Very few think that prices are at those levels anyway, because most people here base their opinions on facts and logic.

     what measure do you want to use?

    2 hours ago, darkmarket said:

    Average graduate salary was under £19k in 2012, no sign of significant salary increases since then.

    Example was for a graduate in a good job.  Showing that they could still buy a property in the most expensive postcode in northern ireland (fact?)

    2 hours ago, darkmarket said:

    Again, you can buy for the price you mentioned in the rat-infested streets off the Lisburn Rd. You get your BT9 address, you get rats too. You don't get to live on the Malone side. And that's only a couple of well above average graduates. The graduates working in call centres don't have a chance.

    opinion or fact?

    2 hours ago, darkmarket said:

    They're already going down, over 4% YoY in Belfast, according to the UU index.

    It's exactly because opinions are subjective that people try to base them on facts and logic. The housing market is completely dislocated from the rest of the economy and the price multiples it requires aren't sustainable.

    I did say 2 years time - hard to say it with certainty what the prices are in the future.

  13. 4 hours ago, darkmarket said:

    Why use "the height of the boom" as any kind of reference?

    Use whatever measure you want -this forum is about opinions - not using as any "kind of reference".   If you just read this forum you would think the prices where back to the height of the boom - its not even close - even for bt9

    Quote

    This is speculation on how much people are paying down mortgages before moving, or in the case of BTL buyers what degree of leverage they're using. Unless we have some figures to hand, not worth much attention.

    The median salary for an employee in NI is £393 / wk or £20,436pa. The employment rate is 70%. There is no chance of this social security safety net lasting another generation. The housing market is completely divorced from reality.

    Yes, a young couple working in traditional professions can still just about afford a two-bedroom in the more rat-infested streets of BT9. That doesn't mean the market is sustainable. 

    Think for a first time buyer the average deposit is 15%, I would be surprised if people moving their next house would have less than this but if you have research that show this - then fair enough.  BTL as far as I am aware needs at least 25% deposit - again if you can show different - then fair enough.

    Example was for a single graduate - think the salary is an reasonable average.  Some of the properties are apartments between malone road and lisburn road - again if they are not good enough for you or doesn't fit your needs - thats okay - look at other parts of the city that are cheaper - if I was in the late 20s I would have been happy enough.  If you are talking about a couple - average household income would be approximately £30k not £20k - doesn't increase the choice that much in BT9 but again there are other parts of the city that they can look at.

    Again I will say I think the prices are too high in BT9.  Do I think they will go down in the next 2 years - no.  Is it based in research - no - its an opinion - welcome to a discussion.

     

  14. Have to add my thoughts on bt9 and other comments on this thread.

    Think prices (or asking prices) have got a little too high but its still not anywhere close to the crazy prices paid at the height of the boom even in bt9.  Any seller that doesn't expect offers 10% below asking price (and consider it) are crazy but maybe the estate agent told them it would generate more interest and get them the 10% above the asking price they are looking for.   Hoping that there is a slow down (and a drop) in the market to allow me to buy a detached/semi-detached house in the stranmillis village area but I think I will be a long time waiting.  Would love to see the affect of interest rate rises on prices but any increase will be incredible slow.

    I think on this board we keep thinking that someone that is buying a £250k,£350k, £600k house is going to have a 95% mortgage.  Vast majority will be moving from another house and should have a good deposit.  Doesn't happen in every case but we should be more realistic.

    Mentioned earlier that a single person on a good wage could not afford a property in belfast (except in a housing estate) but find this hard to understand - choice is definitely less but it is still possible.  Again assuming that this does not exclude apartments (even with their disadvantages) and terrace houses for someone on a good take home pay (average wage £25k - approx £1.7k per month) they should be able to afford a property up to £100k - would be mortgage of £360 per month initially .  BT9 would even have a selection of properties in this range.  Would they be my dream properties? - no - would i be able to live in for five years? - yes. If i was younger and didn't have so many belonging even with all its faults (economy 7 and mould on the walls) the flat that is on auction would be off interest to me.

  15. It might be wrong to assume that someone sufficiently successful to be earning an amount like this is an idiot! Why assume that someone with all this money would not just buy the range rover? Why, especially with the deals available, would they not do a 10 year fix?

    The point was that big lending need not be terribly fraught. Yes, if 3rd generation child is shoehorned into the family business after failing gcse exams, with a big salary and a taste for botox blondes with big boobs... your scenario likely wins. But are we really saying that this is a fair stereotype for higher earners!?

    You can be incredibly sucessful, clever, creative but still not good with money. Not just idiot sons that go bankrupt also doctors, consultants, architects, artists, chefs and other highly educated people also. No matter what you earnings are you can buy a car for cash but quite a high % still buy on credit. Don't think an example of an high earner having car credit is untypical. My scenario doesn't have any blondes included but that will make bankruptcy quicker

  16. To my mind, this is where the argument at higher levels comes apart.

    Say you have a £100k salary and want a 500k mortgage. By the musings on this thread, that would be really daft. But think about the numbers. £2k pays that mortgage. That person is clearing 5k per month. Yes, that is 40% of their income and yes it is 5x multiple but the reality is that there is £3k left over after the mortgage is paid. Frankly you would have to be a nut to struggle with that amount spare, even with a pretty exotic lifestyle. If you think about it logically, that person could probably pay off an 750k mortgage and still have more disposable income that the majority of people who have a 'sensible' mortgage with a 38k salary.

    This allowed me to dream a wee bit and if the person only had the mortgage and had a simple life (in relative terms) yeah you could afford this and more but most people at this level of pay would have a few more outgoings. Think if most people was getting this level of pay they would have a nice range rover in the driveway. Going to the local car dealer I can get one for £999 per month (deposit £22k and final payment £47k).

    Looking at that mortgage the initial mortgage is £2k per month (after having £100k saved for a deposit) but after the deal period it could be nearer £3k. At this time easy enough to get a remortgage but are you relying on it being like this forever?

    Again at this type of pay there might be a few nice holidays abroad each year, a few nice hotel stays and few nice diner in nice restaurants, a few health/beauty treatments. Salary could be soon spent and wouldn't be acting like an exotic nut

    Of course if it was me I would have a 10 year old car, enjoy a couple of day trips to portrush, treat myself to a subway lunch 2 times a month and enjoy a massive 0.25% interest on all my savings.

  17. BT9 last year was going a bit crazy but as posted before quite a few deals fell through but from what I see a lot of property coming on the market is still selling quite quickly (that I notice). Use to notice countless pages for different areas that I use to keep an eye on (four winds, belfast city centre, ormeau road) - now you don't.

    I travel quite a bit about Northern Ireland and you are definitely seeing new developments starting up again and some old ones being finished off.

    Think we will have a really busy market before April. Some BTL will be selling up but people are still interested in BTL/second homes will be completing deals before the exta stamp duty comes in. After April will be interesting and more difficult tell what will happen. Think there will be a small rise this year - maybe 3%

  18. If the average family income is £40k then what's wrong with the average price being 4 times joint income? If only one parent works, they can always buy a house cheaper than this.

    Think the salary multiple has been argued about before. At the height of the boom it was basically forgotten about. Some people could be of the opinion that 4 times is okay. In an era were the base rate has been 0.5% for years it could be argued for but eventually interest rates will go up. Personally I think 3 times is better and over pay when you can. People that don't earn the average income can buy a cheaper house but choice they have is far less now in my opinion.

  19. Do you believe an average or median house price of £126,000 is "Severely Unaffordable" in Belfast

    Still could be better - we all want a better function housing market. It would still need a single person/couple to be earning nearly £40k a year- on a more sensible 3 x times earning mortgage -so many things changes during that time frame - children, loss of earnings, loss of job but it is also nice to have a life.

    I have to go by my own life experience. Bought my first property (apartment) in the early 90s when my wages were low. Could I buy the same property today if I was on the same low wage (£15k) - no - In Belfast I would still have a choice but not a very big choice and I would have probably have to max out the mortgage I could get.

    In London you would be told to close the door on the way out.

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