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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. Given the way they were quite happy when the motor home arrived and didn't really listen to the price, I suspect the motorhome was a freebie from the show. The light pipe could have been too. They rarely listen to Beeny's ideas but always accept whatever she turns up on site with. I wonder what cash the show gives them on top too.
  2. I hope so too! Doesn't seem to have had lift-off yet though!
  3. If China diverts it's investments from the US to their own shores, will this not cause their currency to appreciate (and therefore damage their export led growth)?
  4. I gather that the foreign central banks, such as China's, have been big buyers of this asset backed commercial paper in recent years (I had thought they were buying t-bills?). If they have caused so much havoc in the credit markets by no longer buying this paper, what have they been investing in instead?
  5. It sounds like you are at odds over real vs nominal money supply. Dstars is saying that money supply tends to infinity in nominal terms - which is not certain but human nature means it is usually true. ?...! is saying that money supply will contract in real terms post peak oil - which again is not certain but given the unique qualities of fossil fuels is very likely to be true. So I'd argue you are both probably correct.
  6. I'd like to invest in some foreign government bonds but am struggling to find a broker who can do this. Can anyone recommend one? I'm looking for a way of doing it so that I invest and get paid in the foreign currency rather than through some sort of sterling fund. The option of inflation linking would be great though I suppose governments either offer this or they don't. And would anyone know if this would go into an ISA wrapper?
  7. Christopher Wang - He says that long-term rates moved lower than short-term rates, i.e. long-term bonds became relatively more expensive and concludes that this reflects weakening confidence in long-term bonds! What's the point of these journalists if they write b0ll0cks?
  8. Banks certainly perform a useful role in the economy - try and imagine one where people who needed credit to invest in a good idea could not get it and you'll understand why every developed country has a developed banking industry. In their favour they certainly put their knackers on the line - if they lend someone money and they are not able to repay, they stand to lose everything, if they do repay they make a small percentage profit. The idea is that all the small percentages pay for all the bad debts and then some. Unfortunately, banks have ended up, through competitive forces, convincin
  9. Seconded. It would be interesting to find out what why were predicting. In some ways I think this is almost proving to be a downside to the new model of monetary policy - i.e. the BoE are assuming that their policy is clear and therefore that the market has rational expectations of their next move and therefore they watch the market to see what it believes their next move will be. Whilst these 30 are not the market and they're not putting their money where their mouth is, the market is not as perfectly efficient as economists would love to believe. Certainly these 30 would prefer lower int
  10. Look at it from this chap's point of view: He clearly understands that a crash is on the way having written that book. His mate is a trader so will want to sell high and he's an accountant so can calculate the discounted cash flows. He also is media savvy enough to realise his £500-to-£10m story is one that will sell and give him air time. So what's the best strategy? How about generating public interest in your £500-to-£10m story and explain to people exactly the type of properties have worked so successfully for you. Then quietly start disposing of your properties probably to the muppe
  11. Remember these are nominal interest rates (nominal = real + inflation). It's the real rate that is important because this is your claim on future resources. Clearly if the increase in inflation is greater than the increase in nominal rates (what do you think?) then the real interest rate is actually falling.
  12. Ok, I'm probably most qualified to answer the first and I'll take a flyer on the other two. New builds are only part of the picture in terms of housing supply in the market. Developers will continue to develop sites because building projects takes years to come to fuition, they have land banked and what else are they going to do? But completely overpowering all of this will be the property that comes onto the market due to house prices falling in real terms, house prices falling in nominal terms and even house prices failing to appreciate as quickly as they have done in the recent past.
  13. Yeah, perhaps I didn't put that as clearly as I should. The theory is sound but boom & bust and political independence are two big issues which are failing the theory at the moment.
  14. I'm not sure that inflation targetting is all that bad. Certainly the theory supports it quite soundly. BOOM AND BUST Where I think things have gone wrong is in believing that this means it is the end of boom and bust. In some ways you need a bust every now and then to shake out the dead wood and I think it is preferable to have several mini-busts than a major one. So when the dot-com boom ended and 9-11 happened, Greenspan supported the markets - the Greenspan "put". This is I believe a mistake for which we have still to pay for (purely economically, ignoring any political/ ramification
  15. bennymac I'm not sure what you're actually saying/ asking. Maybe these thoughts will be useful: Unaffordable housing does not mean that rents must rise - every BTL that pushes house prices higher is leaving/ releasing that property into the rental market. Rental prices and to a lesser extent property prices are fundamentally grounded by average wages. In other words, the average wage is the primary determinant of the average rental price. The fact that the UK is an island/ has difficult planning laws/ a growing population of "households" does restrict supply. But that restriction in sup
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