Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

powerswitch_gd

New Members
  • Content Count

    33
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About powerswitch_gd

  • Rank
    HPC Newbie

Contact Methods

  • Website URL
    http://www.powerswitch.org.uk
  • ICQ
    0

Profile Information

  • Location
    Torbay
  1. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/08b565e2-a1a3-11db...00779e2340.html House price inflation has fallen for the first time in 15 months on an annual basis, suggesting that inflation in the housing market has reached a plateau, according to the FT house price index published on Friday.
  2. It'll be those whopping city bonuses before xmas. Now they need to chop everyone else's to compensate
  3. Whatever next? "overseas outsourcing does not cause unemployment"...
  4. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/58a3cd32-79a3-11db...00779e2340.html A housing market bust is likely within the next few years because house price growth has been grounded in unrealistic expectations of double-digit annual rises, a report by a prominent economist and former adviser to Gordon Brown will warn on Wednesday. Throwing cold water on the current housing market euphoria, David Miles, chief UK economist of Morgan Stanley, says it is only possible to explain the more than doubling of house prices in the past decade if people’s demand for housing has been heavily influenced by expectations that the rapid price rises would continue. Once house price rises come down below expectations, he thinks “significant” falls are likely. “A sharp fall in real house prices is likely at some point in the relatively near future, though it could yet be one to two years away,” the report concludes. Mr Miles’ report comes amid increasing concern that borrowers are overstretching themselves as banks such as Abbey National compete to offer home loans five or more times larger than borrowers’ salaries. Last week the Financial Services Authority, the City watchdog, warned banks offering large income multiples that they were expected to “stress test” their loan book using statistical models to ensure they could cope in circumstances as extreme as a 40 per cent fall in house prices. Mr Miles, who was asked by the chancellor to review the mortgage market in 2003, calculates that a little over a half of the rise in house prices has been driven by speculation that prices would continue to rise rapidly. The other half of the rise should endure because it is based on population growth, income growth and reductions in the financing costs of mortgages. He estimates that at present, home buyers are expecting cash prices to continue rising by as much as 10 per cent a year, compared with 2 per cent in 1996. These buoyant expectations of price rises, based on home owners’ experiences over the past five years, have fuelled demand and driven prices even higher. But these forces are the hallmarks of a bubble, which will deflate rapidly once price rises fail to meet expectations. Though Mr Miles’ model shows that under almost any assumptions “a sharp reversal of the recent run up in prices is likely”, he does not predict when it will come. “The model shows why trying to ‘call’ the housing market over the next year or two is pretty much hopeless,” he says, because small changes in assumptions can have a large effect. But he adds: “Sharp falls in real house prices may not come for a year or so, but come they probably will.” Earlier this month John Hawksworth of PwC estimated the housing market was about 15 per cent overvalued and there was a one in three chance of house prices being lower in 2010 than today. Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, said much the same in May when he said “the level of house prices still seems remarkably high relative to average earnings or average incomes or anything else you could look at”. Additional reporting by Jane Croft
  5. I agree with you mate. Kevin Cahill is quite critical of the land tax, though. http://www.mail-archive.com/neweconomics@g...m/msg00098.html The very least we need to do is stop subsidising the uber rich with EU/Defra grants though. It's barmy, we pay them to keep the land!
  6. Ditto. I enjoyed listening to that yesterday.
  7. <Morpheus voice> Welcome... to the real world. </Morpheus voice>
  8. No Check out the snippets on the website for a starter.
  9. Author of "Who Owns Britain" Kevin Cahill has just released "Who Owns the World". I got it in the post yesterday, and am only 40 or so pages in and it's astonishing! The website is: www.whoownstheworld.com
  10. Got a reply from him: Dear ------, Many thanks for the email - and apologies for the delay in getting back to you. There has been a surprising amount of interest in my last column - perhaps I should write about housing website forums more often! Anyway, I will have a look at the book you recommended when I have a moment, although I am naturally sceptical about anyone who thinks he or she knows with precision what will happen to the market. Kind regards, Edmund Conway Economics Editor Daily Telegraph -------------------------- -----Original Message----- From: ===] Sent: 24 July 2006 13:13 To: Edmund Conway Subject: Apocalypse now? Dear Edmund Conway, Re: Word on the street: Apocalypse now? Having read the signs, I don't think so I know of at least one person who thinks he knows what will happen with house prices. You may or may not have heard of him, but he has successfully predicted busts in the past, and has a theory rooted in classical economics to explain the economic cycle related to housing since the birth of the building society. His name is Fred Harrsion, you might want to check out his latest book: "Boom Bust". Regards, ----
  11. Just fired off to Ed Conway: Dear Edmund Conway, Re: Word on the street: Apocalypse now? Having read the signs, I don't think so I know of at least one person who thinks he knows what will happen with house prices. You may or may not have heard of him, but he has successfully predicted busts in the past, and has a theory rooted in classical economics to explain the economic cycle related to housing since the birth of the building society. His name is Fred Harrsion, you might want to check out his latest book: "Boom Bust". Regards,
  12. More on energy and the house price bubble: House prices suffer biggest fall in 5 years as mini-boom stalls More gubbins about the world cup also. (What was the effect of the world cup 4 yrs ago? 8yrs ago? ever? And the European cup 2 yrs ago? 6 yrs ago? ever?)
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.