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House Price Crash Forum

bongo

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About bongo

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  1. I am not sure that 10% below the asking price is that wide off the mark. It seems to depend very much on the property being marketed. I have noticed two seemingly disconnected markets, those that want to sell and who are down to earth and those that are stuck in the clouds - the narcissus market. For the former it might be appropriate to (dare I say it) go for the asking price, if not a little below, for the latter it seems reasonable to me to offer 10, even 15% below what they are asking and then calmly walk away when they say up yours. In a correction some properties will go straight to the new level, whilst the majority might drift over a few years. I was staggered by the volumes of sales for ealing - in April in w5 13 properties were sold and in w13 3! (according to rightmove). At these volumes the indices are completely unreliable, because they can be skewed so easily, but what is clear is that nothing is selling and so the golden question to ask the agents is "do they want to sell?" I am also beginning to feel sorry for the agents, at this level they must be getting desperate, I know there have been a few more lay offs recently. Given the mortgage approval numbers this is only going to get worse for them and the market, so buyers - you have a strong hand which is only getting stronger with each passing month, especially if you have a mortgage in principle.
  2. All the indicators are pointing to a falling market. Approvals very low, FTBs low, Property on the market rising month on month, public sector cuts - all in the buyers favour. My view is that at worst/best there will be no change, but what is more likely is a modest (5, possibly 10%) fall over the next 18 months. What is clear is that at some point there will be a regression to the mean. There aren't that many people who MUST sell though so there is a bit of a stand off. Some sellers might be beginning to twig that it is better to sell now at less than they hoped for rather than sit in the doldrums. There are loads of empty properties about though. What is also interesting is when there is a reposession on the market, as the banks will just cut the prices until they find the "true market value" as they have no emotional baggage tied with the price they achieve. There are only a few of these bellwhethers though, the rest I find rather deluded. If I was an EA I think I would be rather desparate and exasparated now. There are willing and able buyers out there (I am one) - but the price needs to reflect the risks going forward. - I am waiting the so called capitulation phase - getting a bit irritated by it, but comforted that my deposit keeps growing whilst I do.
  3. I have been looking a bit recently. My sense is that not much is shifting. The stock of property on the market seems to be expanding every day, but the quality is not that good in general. There also seems to be a huge amount of properties asking for more than £650K. Also, all the houses we have seen so far have been empty. I recently put in an offer 20% below the original asking price and although declined it took them a while to think about it and the EA was very tempted. I can remember a few years ago, in an aborted attempt to buy somewhere, the EAs were so up themselves if we even dared to suggest that things were overpriced. It is very different now - They are in a very desparate situation it seems as their clients refuse to accept reality and these properties sit there unsold. I am realising that they need me much more than I need them, so am going to carry on and hopefully someone will accept. If not, the worst that can happen is that my deposit continues to grow and the asking prices continue to decline. Interested to hear anyone else's observations of this market.
  4. Having been caught out by the ICESAVE collapse I am a bit wary of going with the highest offer around now. I have £11.5K in a Natwest ISA which has come to the end of the bonus period so am looking for another instant cash ISA. I already have other savings fixed so want a flexible home for this. With the markets and currencies looking a little shaky at the moment, and it being extremely doubtful that any government (particularly the Spanish and British) can afford another bail out what do people think of the risks here?
  5. Thanks for your reply I do see your point re safety and guarantee of beating RPI. I was having a look around the RPI forecasts and saw the following: http://www.lloydstsbcorporatemarkets.com/m..._15_07_2008.pdf I suppose even if it goes as low as they suggest, for the upper tax band it still makes it worthwhile.
  6. Bit of a novice when it comes to savings as only recently paid off student loans etc! Wife and I have used our ISA allowances for the last few years and we now have about £16K in a savings account (7.2 of which we are earmarking for next year's ISA). Any gains seem to be being eroded by Gordon and Darling as well as inflation. Not sure what to do now - the index linked savings seem to be one suggestion, but as far as I can tell RPI is going to fall in the not too distant. What do people think of these or are there any other suggestions? Thanks in advance
  7. An igloo maybe? But even that will cost a lot of energy to make. Only a politician could make up this ******
  8. What's blue and F**Ks grannies? Tory Blair!!!!! Sorry, couldn't resist.
  9. What about tax? In particular the council variety!
  10. If rent money is dead money, what is interest on a mortgage then?
  11. I have a very similar story to yours Ketterinboy. Up until very recently we were also looking, not getting very far as the only stuff on the market was overpriced, crap or both. We worked out that even after ignoring fees, renovation/redecorating costs and selling costs, over a three year period a property of the sort we want to buy would have to appreciate by 3.5% a year to break even when compared to renting a similar one. It doesn't make sense! I put this to a Foxtons EA, continuing with the property market being a giant pyramid scheme and that house prices were a matter of opinion and debt was real. He gave me all the blah blah about having "busiest December in the companies history", "offers above asking price", "I know its crazy, but prices are still going up". Eventually he shut up, but I did think, if you are so busy then why are you wasting your time persuading me how strong the market is. So we will continue to rent, maybe prices won't fall, but I know I am currently saving money - a lot of it and still living in a nice house, much to the EA in question's annoyance.
  12. If they are so busy, where did they find the time to create their display.
  13. I quite like Ealing, lots of trees and good communications and one of the best sushi bars around. That aside Has anyone noticed that the market here is completely stagnant. Everything is completely overpriced (some of the EA's seem even embarrassed sometimes!). Very little coming on (and off) market. It seems that the would be vendors are holding tight, hoping for an upswing I suppose - if I were in their position would probably do the same.
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