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House Price Crash Forum


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About MadJock

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    HPC Poster
  1. Which USA are you talking about here, because it's not the one I live in? Places like most of California, Seattle, Las Vegas, Phoenix, most of Florida, the northeast, Atlanta, and Denver are insanely priced, with median home prices passing 10x median salaries in many places. LAs 'Affordability Index' was about to move into the single digit % but has now been 'revamped and updated' so that magically 25% of people can buy, overnight. It's as bad in the US as the UK in the bubble markets, which cover the majority of the US population.
  2. Maybe you don't understand where the 'mort' in mortgage comes from. Death. The debt dies with the borrower. So don't call it a mortgage if the debt doesn't die. Call it something else, but not a mortgage. Second, does this mean if I really hate my kids I can rack up enormous debt and MEW my house to hell on unfavourable terms just before I snuff it to screw them? And finally, I see a Toyota Corolla I want to buy. The dealer wants 75,000 quid for it. But it's OK because he's doing me a 50 year loan that will pass on to my kids, so I can afford the monthly payment. That wouldn't be dumb, would it? You've not worked in IT over the last five years, have you? You really think the next step isn't a change in the laws such that the debt does pass to the next generation to 'help' them? I'd take a look at the BK laws that came in last year in the US as an example of a step towards a feudal society. And don't tell me it can't happen in the UK.
  3. I'm shocked, shocked, to hear that there may have been appraisal fraud going on! Two years from now everyone will be saying 'Who knew there was so much fraud and corruption in real estate? There was nothing to be done.' When it was patently obvious it was going on. I have to say though I expect it to be much less severe in the UK than the US since surveyors are actually regulated in a reasonable way whereas appraisers in the US stop getting business if they don't 'hit the target'.
  4. A PhD is not necessarily a benefit if there isn't a strong demand, or an intense desire on the part of the person to work in that field. To really get on in academia or research, a PhD is pretty much a necessity - grants are harder to come by and promotions harder to get without one. And seriously, you can't do your own research without one. Otherwise, remember it's 3 to 5 years of research getting paid very little when you could be working and getting promoted, and some employers may think you're overqualified or just using them as a filler until an academic/research post comes up. It's always been the case that the 'high IQ' types get paid less - plot av. wage vs IQ for a large enough group of people then it rises with IQ until you hit 140 or so, then drops. that 140 is usually high end lawyers/business types etc. You can, in fact, be too smart for your own good. It's just been particularly exagerated recently, and particularly so in the UK.
  5. I don't think it's even the training, the maths etc that's the problem - it's that a) wages are poor compared to what else a person of that intelligence could be doing (finance etc) and society places no value on what you do - a Real Estate agent gets more respect! Kids aren't dumb, they move to the cool professions and those that pay well very, very quickly. You can't tell them to do it 'because it's the right thing', you have to make it worth doing. It's easier to get the Chinese and Indians to send their smart kids into science and engineering because compared to the regular standard of living the pay is very good (and opportunities exist abroad), and their cultures respect and promote these professions. I earn a good salary as an engineer, and usually enjoy my job, but I'd make a hell of a lot more were I to have gone into finance. Now money isn't the be all and end all of a career, but that's easy to say when you have some!
  6. But why would you become a tradesman, engineer or a scientist? They require several years of intense training, you are constantly evaluated against a clear metric so no talking your way out of bad performance, require constant update of skills and training throughout the career, pay is low on top of the lost wages during training, society does not value you and allows 'photocopy engineer' to be placed on the same rung, and foreign labour can be brought in at lower wages willing to work in worse conditions.
  7. And don't forget antibiotics when they workwed against every bug on the planet!
  8. Brassfarthing Thanks for derailing a good discussion with an entire page of pointless insults. You may feel all big about it, but exactly what, in all those posts, did you actually add to the discussion that anyone should care about?
  9. Don't make the mistake of thinking anything the US is doing is 'smart'. You think this bunch incompetents int he WH cares what happens in 5, 10, 15 years? You think they understand basic economics? It's about handing money to your friends, and letting the public pick up the tab. 'Privatise the profit, socialise the risk' is their motto. Look at Iraq and how FUBAR that is, and then apply that to economics. China is the one playing the smart game, followed by Russia and Iran. This bunch of clowns is running the US into the ground, and as amazing as it may seem, many of them want this to happen. It sounds nuts, but they believe government is too large and needs to be reduced, and the way to do it is to 'starve the beast' - that is run up expenditure and cut taxes to the point where debt is so large there is no choice but to reduce govt to a minimal role. They think a land without courts and good roads etc will be better for all. They're nuts, and they hold the reigns of power. Google up 'Grover Norquist' and 'drown in the bathtub' and see what you get - and this is a guy with the ear of the President.
  10. Thank you. More than anything else it's the dismissive attitude and the expectation that we should set our sights lower, while paying debt we did not run up, that irritates. I'd rather we all work together to fix this, but the attitude I see from most boomers is that they want their cake and to eat it too, and damn everyone else. At some point, you have to consider them a lost cause and concentrate on your own generation and those that follow, and we are approaching that point very quickly, I am sad to say.
  11. Hyperinflation works nicely for those with debt - they value of the pound you pay back the debt with is less than when it was borrowed years earlier. Hyperinflation is nasty if you are on a fixed income, but if wages rise faster than inflation, things look good if you work. 5 seconds of Googling threw up inflation adjusted data for minimum wages in the US, plus hoardes of other data showing real wages started falling towards the end of the 70s, but during the 70s wage and core inflation roughly matched. Plot the data below on a graph and tell me when things really went sour - it wasn't the 70s. Year Min Wage 1996 dollars 1955 $4.39 1956 5.77 1957 5.58 1958 5.43 1959 5.39 1960 5.3 1961 6.03 1962 5.97 1963 6.41 1964 6.33 1965 6.23 1966 6.05 1967 6.58 1968 $7.21 1969 6.84 1970 6.47 1971 6.2 1972 6.01 1973 5.65 1974 6.37 1975 6.12 1976 6.34 1977 5.95 1978 6.38 1979 6.27 1980 5.9 1981 $5.78 1982 5.45 1983 5.28 1984 5.06 1985 4.88 1986 4.8 1987 4.63 1988 4.44 1989 4.24 1990 4.56 1991 4.9 1992 4.75 1993 4.61 1994 $4.50 1995 4.38 1996 4.75 1997 5.03 1998 4.96 1999 4.85 2000 4.69 2001 4.56 2002 4.49 2003 4.39 2004 4.28 2005 4.14 2006 4.04
  12. Nothing wrong with house prices rising and % ownership increasing - in fact it's a good thing IF population growth and sustainable wage growth are there to back it up. Home ownership and price increases predicated upon debt are bad for society and the economy in the long term. 40 years ago mortgages were to be repaid from wages, while leaving enough money to raise a family. Banks, sellers, and buyers all expected that. 40 years ago a house was a place to live, not a lottery ticket. They thought like France or Germany still does and wanted to use the money for other things, and did not dedicate their entire lives to the purchase of 4 walls and a roof. Today, banks will lend insane multiple of salary that burden buyers with monstrous debt that may never be repaid (IO mortgages that are new 'innovations'). Buyers sacrifice everything to pay whatever it takes to 'get on the ladder' because they are told to by the very people who profit from that debt. Study some basic economics. Debt, if used to fund consumption, results in decreased growth in future years. If used for investment, training, capital equipment, productivity gains etc, then it will result in increased growth. One form of debt helps an economy, one hurts. Guess which form we've been following?
  13. Wow. Way to parse things to dodge the actual argument. If I were 8 years older, I'd be on the cusp of 2 generations. I actually think that those boomers born 46-56 have it much easier than those 56-64, but the argument isn't so succinct when you start subdividing in that manner. And no, that doesn't confuse things. Those born immediately post WWII have had everything given to them, and it stayed that way for a decade or so, then a slow slide in standards, then faster until for those born mid-late 1970s and later it really gets tough. I've said before, I think I was lucky and born 3 or so years later and I'd be much worse off. The heaviest blame lies with the leading edge of the boomers. Tail edge of the boomers caught the cheap house prices of the 90s just as they were buying their single family homes, and that's what's helped them avoid the worst of it. I got lucky with lots of free education and sneaked in on that housing. God help Gen Y with student fees and no hope of a reasonable FTB or significant wage inflation. But here's the thing, I don't want to impoverish those behind me to make up for things. I'm willing to give up >100k in equity if it means sane house prices and a fairer society. You really can't grasp that, can you?
  14. Nice try at misdirection, troll. 8 years puts me slap in the middle of that generation, just as you are in the middle of yours. I do not expect those after me to pay 4x - you take what I say in my previous post and claim I say the exact opposite. Troll. Rapidly rising house prices benefit no-one except those 'at the top'. Housing should not be a lottery for riches. It is to be lived in, and as a hedge against inflation. I would be happy to see the average selling price of properties drop to 1995 levels + wage inflation %. Including mine. I know this is hard for you to understand, but I think the benefits to society of my 'lost' equity would be worth it, so that FTB could get on with their lives without hideous debt.
  15. Anywhere between 18 and 25 years is a full generation. You could drink legally and vote before I was born. Prat. For the generation above, apparently we're taking on incredible debt to buy your houses and pay for your retirement at 65. For the generation below, we've not had the chance - seeing as we are working so damned hard paying the mortgages. A generation doesn't start to get power until their mid 40s, and peaks as the generation is aged 45 to 65 or so. Exactly where the boomers are coming up to. If we mess up the world as badly as you did when we're in charge, they'll have every right to blame us. Probably we'll have managed to get it back to the point where you inherited it.
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