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House Price Crash Forum

LC1

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Everything posted by LC1

  1. Slippery and artificial, just like bankers and monetary policy in general!
  2. Semantics. And your analogy isn't really appropriate, imo. Value is a quality inherent in a thing and realised through use: it is discovered through that dynamic (why people value things differently). Houses don't generate or produce that value. A minor difference perhaps, but semantics does matter when it causes confusion as to what you're actually talking about. In an economic sense, value production and generation has a very specific meaning. Happy if you disagree, but I think that was the original point being made, and I agree with it
  3. "Look how red hot the market is, all these properties that have just sold, and you didn't get to buy one of them, idiot, you're too slow, not bidding high enough, grow some cojones or you'll miss the boat forever"* *When in actual fact the market is completely stagnant.
  4. Your use of the words generate and produce are wrong in this context. Houses have properties (no pun intended) that can be valued, they don't generate or produce anything.
  5. Have you seen the borrowing figures of the last few Conservative governments? Borrowed more than every Labour government combined, I thought? Everyone loves spunking other people's money*. It's just so much fun! (* especially the unborn, they tend to complain the least!)
  6. Someone has given the green light to the media to start using c-words and f-words all over the place. Trying to get my head around it...
  7. Yes, but that's why I'm a bit skeptical - they are front-running events with a narrative. Much better that we see the crash unfolding in real time and the media come late to the party, that would feel more natural. The media is managing the agenda, as always, I'm just not sure what that agenda is: HPI or HPC?!
  8. Don't worry, if you're anything like me, you will. Similar deposit to you, but should have loaded up on debt back when we had basically nothing... Oh well, never mind.
  9. It's a NO from me. Some encouraging tidbits trickling out in the media, but could all just be a campaign of special pleading intended to sway policy, push some softening up of lending restrictions etc to keep things ticking for another year or two until the inevitable. I hope not. But this market is seemingly able to stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent/sane/alive...
  10. Haha, I am in a similar position and had similar thoughts! We are currently not saving at all, though we have always lived a relatively frugal lifestyle and have saved a deposit of approx 50% that we are trying not to eat into. But with two children under 3.5yrs that's not so easy to do! Will of course change when they start school and/or my partner goes back to work. No two ways about it, kids are expensive!
  11. Very true. Slightly OT, but I watched that men's rights doc, The Red Pill, the other day. Very good, recommended. But one of the things that struck me most was when one of the original founders of a domestic violence refuge was explaining about how before feminism took off, both sexes were protesting against the Capitalist system as the source of their oppression. But feminism turned on this idea of 'patriarchy', and suddenly the discourse of oppression was altered forever. Oh how the elite laughed...
  12. Yes, I think you're possibly right. He's had his own forum for a long time now.
  13. Ironically, the my wife and I have actually been viewing properties recently and are keen to buy (don't laugh!), for various reasons not least of which is our astronomical rent compared to what a repayment would be on an approx 50% mortgage. Also schooling considerations. I suspect many posters here have put off buying year after year and are just tired of waiting, or cannot see an end to the hpi madness. I happen to think they're making a mistake, but I can understand it. We're now thinking that events could well overtake us and force some market falls this year, so will keep our powder dry for another few months and see which way the wind is blowing. We won't wait forever though if it looks like more of the same going into 2018. Life's too short.
  14. Not just because of wishing it so. Because it seems like the perfect storm could be coming together against what is really an incredibly fragile edifice of hpi gains. It's not real, it's numbers on a balance sheet, after all. Sentiment will most likely determine events, as once this thing slides consistently for X number of months, even if small falls, we will have achieved crash cruise speed (hat tip to poster who originated that term, can't recall who it was). The question then is what will stop the falls? And will there even be the political will to do so? Recent history might suggest yes, but I am far from convinced. I think we're heading for a large scale global financial event, and the powers that be can see the writing on the wall. Will banks be lending hard into a falling market in anticipation of a quick rebound? I doubt it. Chances are they want a reset and hoover up assets on the cheap. You mention small businesses being ripped up by large falls in property prices, almost as if this a reason why they won't fall more than 20%. Who is most guilty of magical thinking here, you or me?
  15. So what will that be, 2015 prices? I think the falls will be more than that. I think they need to be more than that, else nothing will really change and we'll be back here again within no time. Hard lessons need to be learned.
  16. I've no doubt they will, in the fullness of time, and rightly so.
  17. And then the slow downward grind over several decades...
  18. Proving again why he was top of the class. Very sensible.
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