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About Bobbio

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  1. Gents, It’s been a few years since the topic was looked at in detail. So I've updated the numbers (all based on CML numbers from their web page). My observations: 1. The banks have turned nastier on people once a repossession order has been made, see the percentage rise from 0.25 (2006) to 0.64 (2010). 2. This has been offset by the banks granting greater forbearance on mortgages that are more than 6 months in arrears. 3. The banks are building an increasing back log of homes that need to be repossessed, note the numbers “6 months or greater behind” increasing from 50k (2007) to 140k (2010) approx. 280% increase, while the “repo” numbers have increased from 26k (2007) to 36k (2010) approx. 38% increase. 4. The whole market is turning increasingly brittle and more likely to fracture (crash) upon a shock event, or even upon its own weight (mortages under distress). 5. Being an old head on this board and seeing all the brave predictions since 2005 I don’t know what will happen next. Column 1 - Year Column 2 - Properties taken into procession Column 3 - Orders Made Column 4 - % of orders into possessions Column 5 - Total number of mortgages in arrears greater than 6 months 1990 -44,000 -103508 -0.43 -159,200 1991 -76,000 -142905 -0.53 -275,300 1992 -69,000 -126881 -0.54 -352,000 1993 -59,000 -105283 -0.56 -316,400 1994 -49,000 -77681 -0.63 -250,800 1995 -49,000 -75258 -0.65 -211,900 1996 -43,000 -71203 -0.60 -168,000 1997 -32,800 -57156 -0.57 -119,000 1998 -33,900 -66055 -0.51 -108,900 1999 -30,000 -55964 -0.54 -86,600 2000 -22,900 -50918 -0.45 -68,700 2001 -15,600 -47997 -0.33 -62,900 2002 -12,000 -41759 -0.29 -50,600 2003 -8,500 -41038 -0.21 -43,600 2004 -8,000 -46683 -0.17 -40,900 2005 -15,100 -70964 -0.21 -53,600 2006 -22,700 -90667 -0.25 -50,600 2007 -25,900 -90,654 -0.29 -55,800 2008 -40,000 -111,763 -0.36 101,500 2009 -47,900 -72,235 -0.66 -160,100 2010 -36,300 -56,968 -0.64 -140,800 2011 -ukn -55,260
  2. My company already have staff working there for SOC (second biggest oil company per proven reserves)!! KBR never even left! You guys are way off the mark... The US has WON in Iraq........... wake up smell the coffee!
  3. Stable enough for the Oil Industry to operate. Ok, so BP has got the rights to a major oil field on the first round plus Shell have the right to ALL the gas currently being flared in Barsa fields (planning LNG plant), plus we're setting up offices in country. Like one of the posters stated before 'the Chinese will get part bits at best'. So unless my parents have been lieing to me I don't see many chinese there. Plus ALL major Iraqi government contracts are with listed western companies due the known corruption from Chinese (3rd world type) companies. We're not even allowed to do our drafting (drawings) in India because of this.
  4. You couldn't be more wrong I work for a US Oil Contractor based in the UK, there is so much work coming out of Iraq oil fields/refineries/petrochems et its the place to be. I know as fact (as Im working on the project, designing the infrastructure (pipelines) plus already placed major major material orders) that Iraq will be bigger than Saudi within 10 years and second biggest exporter within 4 years. Plus we opening an office in Basra before the end of the year, its just not that bad out there, far more stable than most Afican oil countries, just the news folk report it.
  5. Work in the Oil Industry, design (FEED) and construction (EPC) company. The downstream market (oil refinery and petrochems) has fallen off a cliff with NO sign of recovery. Upstream is still busy enough but not like the madness of the last couple of years. My company in Reading is planning to layoff about 20% of the workforce 1000 jobs (contractors/agency). Moving rentals soon, so was in EA today told the boys/girls in there and the faces went white as we’re the biggest renters in town with all the contractors/agency workers. Also rental prices have dropped since 2 years ago, what was £850 is now £750, bingo bango!
  6. One by one the front line building blocks of the bubble are being dismantled. 1. 100%+ LTV mortgages 2. High multiple mortgages (5*+) 3. Now interest only mortgages (liar loans) BLT mortgages also on the ropes and the recession is yet to sink its teeth into the market. So will be left at the end, 3.5-4 times single income or 2.5 times two incomes and a 10-20% deposit.
  7. BUMP......... This is far more important in driving down house prices than most other topics on the board at the moment!
  8. This was a good piece of work at the time 2005. I be interested to see your inflation Vs RPI graph updated! In fact I would love to see you update your piece of work, which to be honest was the best that any bull has ever put together (and very nearly made me buy, if I haven’t been a bum student at the time), and then give us your thoughts of where we are today. So how about it Brainclamp?
  9. From the telegraph, looks to me that the banks are now turning nasty, and that we are returning to the past avergae/norms. Its not going to be much longer until this repo start driving down the price further and harder. 50 000 plus repo here we come...................... Mortgage lenders lose patience as repossessions jump "Mortgage lenders are more impatient with borrowers struggling to pay their interest bills than ever before, it has emerged. Figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders show that not only has the number of repossessions in the first half of the year risen by 50pc compared with last year, but the speed with which lenders are seizing properties is at the highest level since comparable records began in 1982. Someone who has been in arrears for six to 12 months is almost twice as likely to face repossession now as was the case in the early 1990s, the figures show. The ratio of households in arrears to actual repossessions, around 20pc for most of the past two decades, has risen to 38pc in the first half of the years. advertisementThe rise in this "intolerance threshold" indicates the pressure felt by banks to shore up their balance sheets in the face of the sharpest housing slump since the early 1990s. Northern Rock recently introduced a "policy of rapid movement towards recovery where it is clear the borrower will not maintain payments and we have higher risk". The CML said repossessions rose to 18,900 in the first half of the year, taking the rate of repossessions to 0.16pc - the highest in a decade."
  10. All Officers give allegiance to the Queen and Soldiers give allegiance to the government, this is one of those historical legacies from the civil war. Also the Royal family are not so dull, in a lot of the infantry (front line fighting) regiments the Queens cousins and lesser family are normally honoury royal colonels (for live) and are very well known and respected by the officer messes and would be the focal point for any action against the government. In the end when push comes to shove the Officers serve the Royal family not the government.
  11. Now we got HPI near zero, but for the correction in prices most people here are looking for we really need the banks to get their claws out. If this percentage doesn’t start reverting to average, we may get the stagnation scenarios the bulls are hoping for. The second point is interesting; don’t think I heard that before.
  12. This is normal with any notice board within Universities. Not sure if its showing anything new.
  13. I’ve taken the data from CML data and compared the number of repossession actions started and how many completed. As you can see the banks are currently taking it easy on the population currently at 20%. Average of 37%, highest at 59%. Also I know the data set isn’t huge back you can ague that the average is taken over a complete cycle. With the credit crunch starting to bite and the banks hurting how much longer before they start turning nasty again. Returning to the average we would have 50895 repossessions last year. I would say the percentage went so low in the naughties because people where able to re-mortgage easily on the back of rising houses and the overall virtuous (viscous, depends how you look at it) circle this generated within the wider economy. Now that HPI has flat lined (and the wider economy not far behind it), this in turn with the banks hurting IMO will lead to this figure returning to mean and then overshooting, which will reinforce the fall in prices. Column 1 -Year Column 2 - Properties taken into possession Column 3 - Possession Actions started Column 4 - % of orders into possessions 1990- 43,900- 91,300- 0.48 1991- 75,500- 186,649- 0.40 1992- 68,600- 142,162- 0.48 1993- 58,600- 116,181- 0.50 1994- 49,200- 87,958- 0.56 1995- 49,400- 84,170- 0.59 1996- 42,600- 79,858- 0.53 1997- 32,800- 67,073- 0.49 1998- 33,900- 84,836 0.40 1999- 30,000- 77,885- 0.39 2000- 22,900- 70,430- 0.33 2001- 18,300- 65,862- 0.28 2002- 12,000- 63,203- 0.19 2003- 8,500- 65,886- 0.13 2004- 8,200- 77,250- 0.11 2005- 14,600- 114,764- 0.13 2006- 22,400- 131,230- 0.17 2007- 27,100- 136,241- 0.20 Average 0.37 If average % returns 50895.02 At 50% 65615 The number of actions started is already in Crash territory, how longs before the banks turn nasty?
  14. I've posted that link to his FACEBOOK page, let him read the craic!
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