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aussie lad

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  1. Got into gold just recently. I'm a bit concerned to hear that its being talked of in bubble proportions. I feel all its done so far is caught up with the vast amount of US$ that have been printed lately. The average man in the pub isnt yet talking about gold but as someone stated they arent the ones that affect the price. Small trader such as me could quite possibly be the shoe shine boy of the gold boom which means I should exit. If I'm in when its first questioned as to being a bubble does that mean it will be at least another few years before it crashes?
  2. I used to contribute to various forums in Australia but found that there was too much evidence being taken from anecdotes, media and heresay. So to get a more accurate picture of what level the crash is at I set about tracking the number of properties for sale and average asking prices from internet property websites. What this shows is that there are many areas in Australia where the number of properties for sale has been rising constantly for the last 2 years (when I started this). There are also a few areas where the properties available has been dropping. These areas seem to coincide with the areas that are still apparently booming (ie WA, Darwin, and some regional Qld mining areas) according to mainstream opinion (doesnt mean they wont eventually fall, but thats where the money is, thanks to the commodities boom). What I was wondering is, does anyone keeps track of properties in the UK in a similar way. I started to do it but keeping track of one country is keeping me busy enough so I figured I would ask here. Hearing that there are plenty of for sale signs up is all well and good but its not exactly hard evidence.
  3. There has been a huge increase in new listings which has only really started in the last few weeks. For the last year the number of new properties listed vs those sold was only slightly higher. In the few weeks before the last interest rate hike this increased more rapidly but in the 4 weeks since sales have virtually dried up leaving an enourmous gap between new listings and those sold. It is safe to say that the crash is now in full swing in Australia. Anyone still holding property for short term gains deserves to lose now as they have had plenty of time to get out.
  4. Australia IS going to have a huge recession. This is not just me being a doom monger - I'm stating the obvious. We are a country that relies on our xports yet our trade deficit is huge and doesnt look like going down. The economy is strong but this is soley the result of cheap money and house prices rising crazily over the last 5 years . I heard this story today from a mate who;s a financial planner. He has a client who bought his house for $65K about 8 years ago. They currently owe $280K on it due to MEWing. The house was valued at $300K last year. $140K would be a more realistic value (and i'm trying to be generous). The important point is this. Where has the $200K or so that they've MEWed gone? Answer: who knows but its whats kept the economy pumping along. This is no isolated incident. plenty are in the same boat (which they bought with equity withdrawal) We have TV comercials with banks telling people to spend up big on all sorts of [email protected] using equity. We have ordinary people discussing "dead equity" (ie equity in houses thats being wasted by not being used on investments or otherwise) see What is going to happen to spending when house prices stop rising and MEWing opportunities are gone(or in fact go down as they are doing). Whats going to drive the spending and the economy then? There is no hurry to buy in Melbourne but if you are interested in an apartment in the Docklands or southbank here is a choice of about 200 for prices ranging from 100K and 200K GBP. peanuts really.
  5. prices are now falling everywhere. Not very fast though. It seems too many are anxious to hold on to get the price it was valued at last year because this is what they have refinanced on. Number of properties available for sale across Australia is rising by approximately 2-3% per week. South East Qld has around 30,000 properties on the market with about 500 more being added each week and about one tenth of this number selling each week - its not going to be a pretty 2005. Darwin is still going up in price - they seem to be the last to catch on. Darwinians say its because investors are beginning to realise that Darwin is a great place to invest due to the high rental yields of around 6%.
  6. Check out these two adverts for the same place - one to sell, one to rent. The owner must be dreaming. The unit is for sale at $378,000, has been so since September and already has had its price reduced by $10,000. http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsear...5&t=ren&ag=&cu= It currently has no tenants and is also advertised for least at $290 per week. (slightly above market rent for similar places) http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsear...1&t=ren&ag=&cu= Why would anyone buy this place?! You'd receive $290 per week in rent (for probably 40 weeks per year at this price) but you'd be paying out $440 in interest per week (based on 90% LVR) Management fees and Body corp would be another $50 per week. It explains why its still for sale as there are plenty of places like this for sale in the area. I value this unit at about $150,000 and even then it would make a marginal investment. It just goes to show ludicrous the aussie market still is even though the crash has been underway for a year now. A lesson for you english - dont hang around watching and waiting for price falls. Get another hobby for a year or so and just keep a sideways eye on the market. Many house price fall will come from foreclosures as the stupidity and ignorance of people will keep them from seeing what is happening so they will keep trying to pay the interest only portion of their loan thinking things will change soon. This can go on for ages.
  7. We also own everything we have but dont own any property. The in-laws keep asking us if we've "found anything" yet. I tell them we arent really looking bc prices are still ridiculously high. They assume this means that we arent earning enough to afford a place so they are also helping us out financially. We are the only ones in the family that dont own our own place. We have a big enough deposit to buy if we really wanted but there aint no chance of me using it to buy at todays prices especially while I see they are falling as they should be.
  8. just need to look at Japan. MAssive housing crash but had zero interest rates. If its overpriced it will come down to reality. Apart from a suckers rally there is nothing that can stop the decline once it starts
  9. These are the bits that make me laugh Oh yeah! It didnt stop people believing that when the median value increased that it meant the value of their home increased. Sorry dude homeowners, if youre not going to take the falls you're not going to be allowed to claim the lat few years gains either. But everyone knows that that there has been decreased numbers of first home buyers. Its at a record low of 16%!! If I had a dollar for everyime Ive heard this I could buy a house at current prices! This is the funniest thing ever. I'm going to post it again for effect. OMG, we couldnt get more confident buyers than we had at the peak of the boom last year . How could confidence increase from that level?? When I saw the movie Titanic, I expected that after it hit the icecube and started going down that it would settle and eventualy rise back up to carry on its merry way again.
  10. I dont know why I'm posting this terrible article but it just goes to show how biased some of the reporting agencies are (the REI's of each state are well known as being almost fraudulent in its reporting) http://www.propertyreview.com.au/archives/...2122004001.html For the record - Sydney property prices fell for the two quarters preceeding this first "falling" quarter as is well known even on this UK forum.
  11. I know that out of everyone who claims they can predict which direction its moving , half of them are wrong. Predicting currency movements is a mugs game
  12. What i dont get is everyone seems so relieved because its cooling rather than collapsing but give me a break !! Who ever seriously believed the market would collapse in a matter of a year or so? That cannot happen. PRoperty isnt like shares. It cannoy collapse in the same way that a share market can. Besides ,even a bear sharemarket can take a few year to reach the bottom. Okay so prices are going to fall 40-50% in Australia. Thats a given, but how long is it going to take the majority of sellers to actually realise that. Sure if John Howard came on telly and told Australians that house prices were going to fall by that much and he was backed up by the banks then maybe it would fall a bit quicker but we all know that aint gonna happen because it would be seen as JH was the one to blame for it. I think thats the problem . Everyone in the know realises the full extent of the correction we are going to have to have but people are scared of saying so in case they are deemed to be the cause.
  13. yes. We heard the old "SEQ is playing catch up with sydney" song a thousand times. I even heard them say it in Tassie. Sydney prices are high so Tasmanian prices will have to get there too soon. (never mind that the average salary in Tas could on just pay tassie pre-boom prices) . It was this sentiment that kept the bubble rising in these other states. Now on the decline I guess they are going to have to follow Sydney prices down too!
  14. yeah I had no luck either. I had to settle for bundy rum aussie chicks and when it got real desperate I had to go for Kiwis.
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