Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


New Members
  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

About HollandPark

  • Rank
  1. A couple of Profs have come up with Proof that we are not in a Bubble Link: http://www.safehaven.com/article-4900.htm The discussion reads fine, until this point... " I am very surprised that no one questioned the key assumption that house prices will rise 6% a year from now until eternity." hahaha. The Smiths should go back to making music
  2. Your Country needs you...to Buy Property If you don't Buy, the devils will haunt you = = = Bull is "too fat, too confident" Listen to the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/genres/hist...radio4/longview
  3. UAE: Real estate market crash will affect banks, say experts 03 April 2006 DUBAI -- Should the real estate bubble burst in the UAE, it will have serious implications for banks, according to industry observers. Property prices have almost doubled in the last three years as Dubai has transformed itself into the region's trading and tourism hub. But a surge in construction projects, especially luxury residential developments, have raised fears of a property bubble. However, the lack of indicators and indices of real estate and property prices and detailed information about the market, makes it difficult for banks to assess the risks related to their exposure either through their lending business or through other lines of business. Banks in the country are mostly focused on real estate market, which is currently experiencing high momentum and a structural need for financing. Banks' total lending to the real estate is estimated at about 15 per cent, which is although not high, but enough to seriously impact them in case of severe downturn The other area where UAE banks have direct exposure to the real estate sector is retail mortgage lending, with Islamic banks having sizable real estate inventories on their balance sheet which may swing in value. Islamic banks are also involved in real estate trading, unlike most conventional banks, adding more risks to their balance sheets. High liquidity inflows as a result of high oil prices and repatriation of some funds invested abroad in the aftermath of 9/11 events have renewed confidence and investment opportunities in the country, where the volume of initial public offerings is unprecedented. They have also pushed investors to increase their exposure to real estate market and surged prices in the past three years. According to industry estimates, the real estate market correction, which will bring prices down, is expected in the coming five years as the number of new housing units available for buyers increases. In the short term, the growing number of people moving to Dubai and liberalisation of the property law coupled with high rental yields and continued speculation, will keep prices up, they say. ...MORE: http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA200...19FD63435B68DA/
  4. I'm not sure that i get that. Socionomics does not that one simply reverses the direction of cause and effect. I thik it says that both Mood and Stock prices are driven by the same instincts. Something causes us to: + feel good, and when when feel good, + we buy stocks But those good feelings do not run on forever, there are limits. And maybe there are patterns which may help us to identify those limits. And once those limits are hit, moods shift, and stock prices move with them. When we are strongly driven by moods, we can easily ignore news or facts which do not fit in with our moods. And the Crowd can deny important fundamental facts for a long time. Dont we see such an unwillingness to accept facts (risks of high debt, for instance), in the bullish stock and property markets? Then when mood shifts, these negative facts will suddenl be evident again. I think this is how markets really work
  5. Kong should be on that Building He, the King of the Beasts, is part of the story. The wildness inside of us all, who can be seduced by a beauty in a short skirt, before he falls from a great height, is the story of markets- Isn't it?
  6. Good review, Spline. I think the Elliotwave stuff is an imperfect tool for predicting the stockmarket. If you have three EW analysts, you may get three different forecasts. But the social mood stuff is fascinating. There is no doubt that optimism runs right through a culture. When people feel good, they spend more, they party more, they buy and build more properties, and teh throw money at their favorite stocks in the stock market. The "erection index" is well named. People get an exuberant edge to all facets of life and business. Women wear shorter skirts, while men, when they are through chasing the ladies in the short skirts, rush out to plan tall buildings. It happened in 1929, when the Empire State Building was planned. And it is happening again in Shanghai, where the new World Financial Center is being built. By the time the Empire State Building was finished, the US was in depression. Will it happen again in China?
  7. The Hemline Indicator Odd as it sounds, the theory that hemlines and Wall Street move in tandem actually has some validity An MBA from Harvard first publicized the "hemline indicator," which observes (correctly) that skirts tend to move up the leg in bull markets, and back down in bear markets. Yet Bob's analytical work has moved beyond simple observations, and gets to the "why" that explains the strong link between cultural and stock market trends. The hemline indictor reflects the positive/negative collective mood in fashion trends, yet there's an ironic contrast when it comes to sex. Bull markets emphasize romance & relationships, which explains rising birth rates. But sex gets raunchy in bear markets. It's no coincidence that R-rated movie content and pornography became cultural staples as the Dow Industrials went sideways/down in the late 1960s and into the 1970s. Now this period is actually being celebrated with a documentary titled "Inside Deep Throat." In fact the porn business is exploding on the Internet, among cable subscribers, and beyond; Jenna Jameson's tell-all about her time in the industry topped the best-seller charts for six weeks last year. All this came to mind this morning as I read a Boston Globe article titled, "What happened to the anti-porn feminists?" Good question, yet it's one which this otherwise engaging article never truly answers. It correctly recites the role of many feminists who tried and sometimes succeeded in getting anti-porn legislation passed during the 1980s-1990s; but as for why their influence has vanished in recent years, the closest the story gets is this quote from anti-porn feminist Catharine MacKinnon: ''The data just show that pornography sets community standards, so the more pornography there is, the less will be seen to be wrong with it. It's just its own intrinsic dynamic." Of course, this only begs the question of why the spreading pornography trend is so strong. It would never occur to most people that the answer starts with the bear market in stocks that began in 2000... yet it does. @: http://www.elliottwave.com/features/defaul...id=1555&time=pm = = NO FRUGALITY in a time of Housing Excess ?? ERECTION INDEX : where is the Next "Empire State Building" going up?? .......................... At a height of 1,250 feet, the Empire State Building was to be the tallest building in the world. It was the late 1920s, and America was the greatest nation on earth, as President Hoover explained. Caught up in the excitement, millionaire speculator J.J. Raskob forged ahead on his plans to build the hundred-story Empire State Building. The building was completed in 1931, two years after the stock market peak. Planned during the stock market mania of the late 1920s the Empire State Building (along with the Chrysler Building built at the same time) is a classic example of "The Erection Index" at work... Today I'll reveal this little-known index, and give you a specific way to use it in your portfolio for maximum returns. How The Erection Index Works The Erection Index - the idea that stock markets crash soon after the plans for the world's tallest building are hatched - has a remarkable track record. As good times progress to bubble times, people forget about risk. And bad investments are made. People buy drastically overvalued stocks. Business are financed that shouldn't be. And rich guys build really tall buildings. The record for the world's tallest buildings stood from the early 1930s until the late 1960s... Then the stock market entered what was called the "Go-Go Years." Good times progressed to bubble times. And plans for the World Trade Center were hatched at the peak in 1966. The World Trade Center and the Sears Tower in Chicago were both completed in the early 1970s. Stocks did absolutely nothing from 1966 to about 1981. Those who understood the Erection Index knew a peak in stock prices (and the economy in general) was near. The Sears Tower held the record for nearly a quarter-century, until good times turned to bubble times, this time in Asia. Foundation work on the Petronas Towers in Malaysia started amid the Asian stock frenzy of the mid-90s. The towers were completed in time to welcome the Asian crisis in 1998. Malaysian stocks had already fallen by 69% in dollar terms in 1997... To this day, in 2004, Malaysian stocks are still 50% below their 1997 peak. China's Crash: What The Erection Index Says Now So where's the next "world's tallest building" being built? You guessed it... China. Scheduled for completion in 2007, the Shanghai World Financial Center is on track to become the new world's largest building. Buy into the China boom now if you like. You may make a ton of money. But remember the lesson of the Erection Index. And be willing to sell. Based on the history of the Erection Index, sometime in 2005-2006 should be about right.
  8. A VERY interesting documentary abour Crowd Behaviour, and a science that examines it = = = = = = = DOES SOCIAL MOOD create the Economic Evironment, rather than the reverse? The new science of Socionomics says that is the way it works. A new web-documentary explores this idea History's Hidden Engine is the result of more than three years of research and creativity by filmmaker David Moore. Moore traveled North America to capture the insights of 17 brilliant minds, then wove them into this film. In just 59 minutes and with the help of pop songs, news footage and cultural images that are familiar to everyone, this documentary shows how social mood drives trends in movies, music, fashion, finance, economics, politics, the media and war. link: http://www.socionomics.net/films/history/default.aspx = = ALSO posted : on GEI, you can chat there too
  9. Possible conversation EA: Prices never drop. They are steaming ahead. You: Do you believe that... really believe it? EA: Sure. You: Okay. Have you ever heard of spreadbetting? EA: No. You: Through spreadbetting, you can make a bet on the direction of the market. EA: Really? I would never do that. You: You wouldnt do that, and you expect me to put £200,000 into a property. If that's not a bet on the direction of the market what is?
  10. when does the penny drop ...amongst the baby boomers that property is no longer the investment that they thought it was. AFTER the PRICE of property drops
  11. another fabulous false dawn as the green shoots of recovery spring up in the minds of EAs
  12. that is from 1-2 years ago, i believe. the us has bubble-itis by now
  13. NAME 'EM AND SHAME 'EM, The architects of the Boom and Bust in House Prices Who pumped it up, and profited handsomely from 2-3 years of overspending on Housing. A look at: + Estate Agents, that collected big bonuses, + Banks, that reported excesive profits, + Builders, whose stock prices shot up, + Politicians, who got re-elected on a false prosperity, + TV presenters, who got rich while getting it wrong AND the sad cases: The FTBers who were unable to buy, and pt their lives on hold. and the sadder cases: Those who bought their dream homes, and are living the nightmare of massive debts
  14. last week the complacency stopped, and the moral indignation against inadequate government began to flow, from slick anchors who spend most of their time glued to desks in New York and Washington. As the heads of the Homeland Security department and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) appeared for network interviews, their defensive remarks about where aid was arriving to, and when, were exposed immediately as either downright lies or breath-taking ignorance. When the back-slapping president told the Fema boss on Friday morning that he was doing "a heck of a job" and spent most of his first live news conference in the stricken area praising all the politicians and chiefs who had failed so clearly, it beggared belief.
  15. time to go video- making a new life: http://guide.real.com/media/news?contentid...ion=
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.