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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by ILBB

  1. S&N is not, afaik, subject to any positive rumours and indeed the price has fallen recently from 560p to 450p! As to the rest : "The world is awash with money (which is flowing disproportionately to capital rather than labour). If you can't understand that and its effects on investment then I'm afraid I can't explain it further.
  2. Every investor will have their own criteria! The world is awash with money (which is flowing disproportionately to capital rather than labour). However, at the same time there's a limited supply of property but with an increasing demand both from tenants, as their numbers increase, and from investors, as their pool of capital increases. Increases in decent BTL property prices would, over the long term, seem a one way bet!
  3. OK, though I feel companies are often wasteful with earnings not directly returned to shareholders, if we do apply that to S&N, who's eps for 2005 (according to ADVFN) is 19.8p, we see a yield of around 4%. Similar, in fact, to the quoted rental yields. As for the 50% difference in capital growth to rental income? This is the practical aspect of the changing reward ratio for capital as against labour. Those using their capital (property owners) expect to be rewarded wiith a 6% annual increase (their capital available for investment increases by 6%) whilst labour (renters) will only be rewarded for their labour with 3% annual increases. I'm afraid that's the way of the world at the moment ! Edit. I wouldn't invest in either the properties quoted or S&N (who have warned yet again) but it's just to point out that BTL is not, compared to other asset classes, that bad an investment.
  4. Barclays shares at the moment are £6.80 and paid a dividend in the last financial year of 26p which, by my reckoning is less than 4% ! Projected capital appreciation of BTL property is between 3 and 6% with rental yields increasing by 3% p.a. (Financial Times) probably quite similar to many mature companies. For someone with £150,000 to invest there may not be a great deal to choose between the two and BTL is certainly no more a poor investment than any other asset class at this moment. And given the substantial forecast rise in population over the next few years it may well do much better.
  5. Smith & Nephew - Price £4.54 - dividend 5.6p - yield 1.24% - Why, based on your criteria, would any investor want to buy this (or almost any other share)? Or don't the same criteria apply and if not, why not?
  6. Mind Boggling Figures Saturdays Telegraph (Comment). In 1997, there was a net immigration into Britain of 26,000. In 2004 (the most recent figure available), the net figure was 342,000. The inflow in 2004, before you subtract the outflow, was 582,000 (and, of course, these figures cannot measure the probably large-scale illegal immigration which also takes place). So at least one per cent of our previous existing population - the equivalent of seven parliamentary constituencies - arrived here in one year.' And I'm afraid rumours of 20 to a room are wrong! EU single male workers in the UK typically share a 3 bed terraced house between three to four workers.
  7. 4 minutes for a PC reply - you're slipping! "But we all know that the media is biased" - I hope you're not including the BBC in that - They've recently become nothing more than the mouthpiece for New Labour and it's Marxist/Liberal PC friends!
  8. Amazing how people are allowed to make comments like this about the police without comment from anyone but make a negative comment about the UK's 'oppressed ethnic minorities' and you'll have the PC brigade climbing all over you in seconds flat. Just a couple of quick points; 1. If you're a white and middle class try walking through the areas where the 'oppressed ethnic minorities' live and see how long you last, especially if there are none of those nasty, horrible police around. 2. Tune into Crime Watch and look at the good guys and then look at the bad guys - spot anything?
  9. Yes,I think you're probably right! The market was up around 25% in just a few months with some investment trusts up more - time for some consolidation I'd say.
  10. "Adult film" performer? They say that losing one of your primary senses heightens the others, so Blunkett's highly-developed sense of touch — described by previous lovers as leaving them "totally satisfied as a woman" — will have the top ladies in the business queuing up to make filthy scud flicks with him. If he relocates to Germany, his dog could probably get in on the action as well.
  11. Do you not feel that the new sources of gas supply coming fully onstream from 2007 onwards will have any effect? But back to the £ and Lex in the FT The surprise about sterling is not that it has weakened against the dollar, but that it has not depreciated further against the euro. Based on theoretical exchange rate models, the British pound remains rather expensive. Investment bank Goldman Sachs, for example, places sterling’s fair value against the euro at €0.75, compared with the current level close to €0.69. Positive interest rate differentials and expectations of economic outperformance relative to the eurozone have underpinned the UK currency’s persistent overvaluation. Both these supports are now under pressure. The Bank of England presents a confusing picture of the UK’s prospects. It acknowledges the economy’s sluggishness relative to its predictions, while presenting a not entirely convincing forecast for a subsequent rebound. The risk remains that the Bank is being overly optimistic and that, as growth slows, interest rates will be cut next year. This possibility is not currently priced into money market futures prices. The market does, however, anticipate three 25-basis point rate increases from the European Central Bank over the next year. Recent movements in sterling have not fully reflected the narrowing of the expected yield spread, suggesting further scope for the pound to depreciate. In the last three months, the dollar has appreciated by a similar amount against the euro and the pound, leaving euro/sterling broadly stable. The more usual pattern is for sterling to occupy a “half-way” house between movements in the dollar and the euro. The pound’s fundamental woes could be compounded if the greenback renews its decline in 2006.
  12. Yes, he wants to decrease the growth in consumption and and increase growth in the manufacturing sector.
  13. I think it's generally accepted that the £Pound is overvalued at current levels and that the chancellor would be quite happy to see it revalued downwards (especailly against the Euro) in the belief that it will help both our manufacturers and the balance of payments situation. A figure of .75 Euros to the pound is one I've seen bandied about in the FT (it's about 70 cents at the moment).
  14. Sorry but I dispute this figure. In general, though there are minor exceptions, we are FTB's once in a lifetime. However we, on average, move house every seven years thereafter. Assuming a further four to five moves in a lifetime of owning I would suggest a more usual figure of 15% tp 20% of house buyers would actually be FTBs. Try this site and look at the FTB chart for 1998/9 http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical...e_StampDuty.pdf Quoting unrealistic figures in the support of the FTB does not do their cause or this site any favours.
  15. Do you seriously expect us to believe that 50% of all house sales are to FTBs in a 'healthy market'? Where did you get the 45% to 55% figure from?
  16. I subscribe to MoneyWeek but sometimes I do wonder at their constant harping on about houseprices being too high. I don't think any recent issue didn't have an article or editorial bemoaning the fact. I'm starting to wonder whether the whole editorial team didn't STR about 4 years ago and are now getting quite desperate!
  17. Some of his remarks to the Financial Times "Thinking back to my first resignation – all those weeks ago – I can begin to see a pattern emerging. I made a mistake. Then I made another one. Then I said I hadn’t made any mistakes. Then someone spotted that I had, so I had to admit it and resign" "I would like to make three things clear. One: I have done nothing wrong. Two: where I have done something wrong, it does not really matter. Three: where it does matter I prefer to maintain that it doesn’t. I would like to thank all my cabinet colleagues for their support, but as they haven’t given me any, I don’t suppose I can. I realise some were upset by my disparaging remarks about them to my biographer. All I can say is that was a mistake. I am not saying it was a mistake to regard my colleagues as a miserable shower. But it was a mistake to articulate those views to a journalist." And his apology to Labour back benchers "Firstly, I would like to apologise for having an affair with a posh bird. I realise now that people like me should not be fraternising with the upper classes. I would also like to apologise for having sex, which I know embarrassed so many of you. I realise that the blind have no business doing that sort of thing. Although we all believe the disabled should have a full and active life, I think we can all agree that that principle stops at the bedroom door. I also apologise for trying to make money while out of office. I know how much you hate capitalists. I realise I let you down in wishing to leave an inheritance for my children. I must further apologise to Labour MPs for drinking in an upmarket Mayfair nightclub. Common blind men like me have no business doing such things. I now realise that instead of meeting attractive women and going to nice bars I should have stayed late at the Commons drinking pints with Peter Kilfoyle as befits a man of my class. I would like to apologise to the dozens of fat, dull backbench MPs for spending time with interesting people when I could have been fraternising with them and not getting above myself. Had I remained in office there was a clear danger that I might have continued to drink red wine, court interesting women and go to dinner with people far above my own humble station. I have let you all down and you were quite right to abandon me." FT
  18. 1.Yes, all properties being offered for sale will have to have a sellers pack - and I suspect there will be a flood of dodgy properties being offered at auction prior to these packs becoming law! 2. Most of the people buying at auction don't need a survey as they do their own. I wouldn't dream of spending a K on a survey because I'd almost certainly be liable to overbid if I'd already shelled out. If I was really stuck I'd get a very experienced jobbing builder to take a quick peek at it for £70 quid (and for that he'd even tell you how much it'd be to put right - not something your surveyor will). 3. The government has to survey all UK homes to discover their insulation requirements. This is an EU law - The sellers packs are now to do it for them. Neat trick! 4. I think the surveys should pick up most problems and I'd tend to trust them but, lets face it, anyone with a bit of experience can do their own on most properties.
  19. I thought she was very honest, broadly neutral and cautious going forward.
  20. Nationwides chief analyst is about to appear on Bloomberg at 9.30
  21. The lack of interest in this important and rather bullish HP figure seems to suggest the bears on this site would rather concentrate on odd bits of hand picked anecdotal evidence to justify their theorey of a huge crash. Rather it's now starting to look as if consumer confidence is returning, at least in some degree. "Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The number of home loans approved by U.K. mortgage lenders reached the highest in 15 months in September, suggesting the $6 trillion housing market may be recovering from a yearlong slowdown. Approvals totaled 107,000 when adjusted for seasonal swings, the most since June 2004 and more than the six-month average of 98,000, the Bank of England said in London today. The number for August was revised down to 106,000 from 107,000. The figures signal demand for property may have picked up since the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate a quarter point to 4.5 percent in August, although whether this translates to gains in house prices remains to be seen. Recent reports have suggested property values have stabilized, with annual rates of inflation heading towards zero from around 20 percent in mid 2004. ``Housing activity certainly has come back after last year's big falls,'' said Ian Stewart, chief European economist at Merrill Lynch in London.
  22. Almost all the emmigrants leaving the UK are skilled and/or highly qualified as most of the countries we emmigrate to insist on it. In their place you are getting an uneducated, non English speaking immigrant from Asia or Africa - Yes, I will agree, many of them do appreciate it (apart from those who preach hate in the Mosques or produce bath tubs full of volatile chemicals!).
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