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Everything posted by paradox
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Why Won't My Friends Listen?
paradox replied to Lovely Lolly's topic in House prices and the economy
Dont be put off, Lovely Lolly and please keep posting - welcome to the board. The problem as I see it is this. If you hang around some bulletin boards you will see that they have completely deteriorated. People post under multiple identities and in rapid succession often cutting and pasting. The intention (believe it or not) is to sabotage the whole thing so that normal conversation becomes impossible. I used a football supporters bulletin board for a while until it was effectively wiped out as a place of rational discussion by a concerted action by supporters of another team. It sounds childish and it is. This is what the moderators of this board are trying to avoid. On the other hand they can be overzealous. I enjoyed reading your first post and I noticed that it was Winners and Losers who made the ironic comments regarding a flat in SW16. -
It is all quite depressing really. I drove through Shropshire on my way to my father's house in Wales. Quite how Shrewsbury salaries can sustain those prices is beyond me. Good luck with your search, and keep away from Telford.
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Helllo Ian, Your situation is almost the same as mine. I was away and came back to a different world. You are not alone mate. Good luck in 2006 Adam, the PDF looks great, but is in Chinese when I download it. Is anyone else experiencing this?
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I Hope Whoever Sold This Interest Only Mortgage ...
paradox replied to Correction's topic in House prices and the economy
I know I have gone on about this before but it really irritates me so much. WHATEVER HAPPENED TO A MIXTURE OF TENURE When I was growing up loads and loads of people lived in lovely three bedroom houses with gardens front and back. They did not own the homes but had security of tenure. They could paint the place any colour they liked and stick nails in the walls etc. It was called Council Housing, the tories actually built more of them than labour in the 1950s I am NOT repeat NOT talking about high rise blocks of flats. I am talking about the sort of low rise, spacious housing that one finds in places like the whole of the north of Norwich (where I rented such a house for a year from the tenant - yes you could even sublet them under certain circumstances - or if you kept quiet about it). This form of tenure has now been awfully stigmatised and most of the decent houses have been sold off. Some have benefited, but for a decent society this was (and still is) a big mistake. Those houses provided a base and a safety net. We are worse off without them. -
Why Won't My Friends Listen?
paradox replied to Lovely Lolly's topic in House prices and the economy
Does your Baker Street friend plan on moving abroad. Lets assume he is right and he makes 30 grand on it. That means that the rungs of the ladder will have moved apart once again. Unless he sells up and rents, or moves abroad, that capital gain of 30 k will be useless because trading up will be even more difficult. Only emigration or rampant wage inflation can save him now. -
Where Are People Investing Their Money?
paradox replied to libitina's topic in Investment in general
There seems to be 501 different ways to invest. I have gone down the commodities route myself and also Ruffer managed funds What ever you do - good luck -
Unfortunately mate I am stuck in the middle of the rat race trying to run a small consultancy business and complete a PhD. I was remaniscing about the good old days when I had nothing to do all day
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Am I Going To Be The First Hpc Divorce?
paradox replied to Big AL's topic in House prices and the economy
QUOTE(BricksandMortar @ Jan 2 2006, 10:58 AM) whoever you're thinking of it ain't me - I hadn't heard of this site till a few days ago! Couldn't disagree more - take the people out and it's just a sterile room - which is where Al may find himself, smug in his STR but horribly sad and lonely! Of all the posts in this thread Bricks and Mortar must be the worst. Unsympathetic, bitchy and unable to rise above the House Price Crash issues to see the real human story here. Even the Uber Bear Dr Bubb was able to offer constructive advice that includes a range of options. However all Bricks and Mortar can do is return to the tired old theme of smug STR etc etc etc. Big Al sounds anything but smug. He sounds pretty depressed actually. Like all of us, he is only doing what seems the best thing to do. So why do you need to gloat??? Bricks and Mortar. Two questions. 1) are you married? 2) have you ever suffered a personal tragedy? If the answer to the first question is positive - then good luck to your hubby If the answer to your second question is positive - then you should feel ashamed of yourself - think back and remember how it felt, and then send some karma to Big Al Alternatively, Bricks and Mortar, if you are not married then Consa might be on the look out soon. He sounds like just your kind of man. -
Am I Going To Be The First Hpc Divorce?
paradox replied to Big AL's topic in House prices and the economy
Good luck Big Al, On women and nesting, I think a lot of it comes down to imagination. We "owned" a flat with an uncomfortably large mortgage. My wife is a great nester but she felt that we lacked space. Now we rent somewhere twice as big, unfurnished. We have put pictures up and changed the curtains (not forgetting to invoice the landlord). All our furniture is in place. In many ways we feel more at home here than in our previous flat. My wife certainly prefers it. Ironically, I am the one who feels the UK obsession with renting. My wife is immune to this. Perhaps because she is from a different culture and has not bought in to the UK class / regional / tenure snobbery in which postcode, accent and tenure says all about you. To all the women on here who are suggesting the following equation: nesting = respect = borrowing from a bank to purchase a house = happiness I would suggest that this is a particularly UK phenomenon. My wife was far more gung ho and happy to STR than I was. -
The Hpc Forum In It`s Early Days
paradox replied to Converted Lurker's topic in About housepricecrash.co.uk
Fred... Absolutely Brilliant. The Bard of Lancashire Don't spoil it all by telling me you are a Man U fan. -
The Hpc Forum In It`s Early Days
paradox replied to Converted Lurker's topic in About housepricecrash.co.uk
I know what you mean about the lack of a specific First Time Buyer focus. However, I think that this eclectic mix is what makes the forum such a great place. It has posts that range from the banal to the serious. In that sense it is a challenge to the general dumbing down that goes on. -
Exactly, There is a worrying tendency to glorify Cameron and the nu tories. Let us not forget how similar both main political parties have been in some respects. Neither has made manufacturing or research and development a priority. Both have stoked up credit booms for electoral purposes or (since 2001) as part of the global response to the "war on terror" Both have liberalised the credit regime and penalised saving. Remember the tories effectively removed the difference between banks and building societies. Both have pursued housing policies that have replaced a mix of tenure (council housing, housing associations, private rent, owner occupier) with one preferred tenure over all others. Both have pursued wierd PFI and PPP agreements in which public expenditure subsidises and underwrites private profits in a strange new world of public sector investment that leaves the taxpayer worse of than if the government had simply spent the money directly.
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Have just read that Observer article. Its official, we are being dumbed down. Correction. We have been dumbed down. I did economics A level in 1980. They used to use articles from the Observer, Guardian etc in our lessons. There is NO WAY they were as economically illiterate as the article referred to in this thread. There are so many things wrong with it I really don't know where to start. And it is not a question of opinion, it is a question of the level of logical rigour that goes into the article. Economists from the far left, the far right and all points in between could tear the article to shreds if they had half a chance. What is going on? !
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The reasons are quite simple. In earlier times we were hunter gatherers. Then a sort of division of labour set in in women tended crops to produce the veg whilst men went out to get the Sunday joint of meat. Kids milked the cows to make the Yorkshire puddings. Then later urban society developed. The words civilisation, civil, city, and citizen are all linked. They related to the growth of towns. This presented a totally new scenario as it meant that there was enough agricultural surplus for some people to survive without working in agriculture. These new non farmers can be divided into two groups. Firstly the non farmers who serviced the business of existence and reproduction of the species. This first group includes blacksmiths who made ploughs, horseshoes etc, coopers who made barrels, taylors who made clothes and anybody else who made something that helped people to produce food, eat food, keep warm and have babies. The second group of non farmers were less productive. These included the priests, politicians, doctors, singers, poets, fortune tellers, gossip mongers etc. These people could now exist in greater numbers because society was producing a surplus and people could exist without producing food and without producing useful goods. This second group has always been valued. The ancient philosophers considered the existence of this second group to be essential to a civilised society. Indeed in Ancient Greece and Rome free men didnt work, work was considered demeaning - something to be left to slaves. Instead it was this latter group who consitituted the citizens. The workers were just slaves. Under developed capitalism a new division has arisen. Large enterprises produce goods. Agriculture is now removed from every day life (I am referring to the UK here). The citizen is largely replaced by the consumer. We are what we own and we are where we live. We can no longer say "I think, therefore I am". Instead it is more like "I buy, therefore I am" Ok we still have a large public sector, but these people are not producing ideas, wisdom, music, poems, orgies, and cooking fantastic meals. Instead they are pen pushing and managing the complexity of society, including sorting out the lives of consumers who are unable to consume enough and therefore depend on the state for benefits of some sort or other (including health and education). This carries on because we believe it is civilised to provide free health and education, and we believe it is civilised to support people in poverty. But we have forgotten the original meaning of civilisation. It is not to support poor people. It is to free people from demeaning work and instead to allow them to fulfill their humanity by lounging on sofas and eating grapes. Yes - that is what the ancients called civilisation. Now - most people have been indoctrinated by the protestant work ethic that came along with capitalism. Especially in the Anglo Saxon countries work is seen as good, noble, healthy and the right thing to do. During period of unemployment people (including myself) feel depressed because they are not taking part in the world of work. Most people feel this way, and most people will continue to feel this way. Therefore most will want to work for most of their lives. However if we are to be truly civilised we should allow for the minority who are not indocrinated with the work ethic. We dont complain if our taxes are spent on the military, the police, hospitals and schools. We dont complain because we believe that these things are essential for a civilised society. Therefore we should also not complain if our taxes are spent on the minority who for one reason or another want to drop out of the rat race and read a few books. That would be civilised. I repeat. There are two conditions that would have to be applied to make this work. 1) No moonlighting and strict punishment of moonlighting. All work to be taxed (or at least registered) and moonlighters to be excluded from benefits. 2) No entitlement to this system for those who are not fully incorporated in the UK. It would only apply to UK citizens. The state would also have to make sure that people like me dont work abroad and then nip back to claim my scroungers allowance for a few years before going off again. However there are always these complications and exceptions to every system. For the vast majority it would apply without any problems. And yes, as a poster mentioned above, it would be a green and environmental option. Leaving work to those who want to be productive and avoiding wasteful office space, factory space, bus journeys and general hassle for those who want to stay in bed all day.
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Went out with my wife. Fantastic night at a Jazz concert in Soho. Good luck to all in 2006
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Ok folks thats enough. Anybody left online is a sad b*** Go out (or stay in) and enjoy yourselves tonight Happy New Year everyone and all the best for the year to come 2006 House price crash 2006 House price stagnation 2006 House price inflation Whatever... 2006 - BRING IT ON
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Rents On The Rise? Or Maybe Not...
paradox replied to MrsMole's topic in House prices and the economy
With my modest STR fund I could put down three 20k deposits and buy three properties whilst I rent the home I am currently in. 3 years ago I might have done that (if I had been alive to the situation then). Now I just don't think it makes sense. Why? 1) The experience I had selling my flat tells me that something is up. 2) The experience I had when I was a landlord tells me what hassle it was. 3) I could look upon the mortgage, charges and all the hassle as "expenses to keep the thing going" as you put it. But then the so called "profit" would be reduced to two parts. Firstly the minimal surplus from the costs of keeping the thing going and secondly the supposed capital gains which would be pure guesswork untested in the real world until I choose to cash in. Conclusion - right now it just does not add up -
A Few Ftb Friends Going To Buy Next Year....
paradox replied to Pete95's topic in House prices and the economy
If Al does exist then he is the biggest idiot alive. He has taken out a 40 years loan on 10 times his salary basing it on the assumption that rents, prices, interest rates etc will remain favourable for the next 40 years.......! Look at what has happened between 1965 and now. Who knows what will happen over the next 40 years. And he bases this on the supposed 35k rise in his 2 bed. You accept it has "probably" gone up from 80 to 215 but we don't know because he hasn't sold it. Yet you lead us to believe that he has secured a loan or even "extracted more equity" on this alleged value increase in order to get above mentioned 40 year mortgage. Why am I even bothering to reply to this nonsense anyway. Because there are fools out their who believe it and because there is the feint possibility that Al exists in real life and is reading this. Challenge: You went out for a meal with Al, show him my post and invite him on to the board to explain his reasoning Lesson for anybody reading and new to this site: Irrespective of whether Al exists or not. Hands up who would like to be in his position. -
Rents On The Rise? Or Maybe Not...
paradox replied to MrsMole's topic in House prices and the economy
I think the idea is that you never pay back the loan. You sell for a capital gain at some future date. You use the 100 pound a month to reduce your living expenses, or if you have a whole portfolio it goes into the pot to pay for voids, maintainance, service charges, mortgage payments and deposits on other properties. The whole thing works very well if you don't over commit and / or if property prices are rising well (they need to rise fast and not just stagnate) If these factors are not present then you could be in trouble. But I am sure that laurejon has it all worked out. -
A Few Ftb Friends Going To Buy Next Year....
paradox replied to Pete95's topic in House prices and the economy
Exactly gruffydd The ficticious people sound so preposterous. Just where have all the real 'young professionals' gone? -
A Few Ftb Friends Going To Buy Next Year....
paradox replied to Pete95's topic in House prices and the economy
Al is a fool, unless he earns a fortune Andy, puzzling. He is looking to buy a flat to rent out a flat and continue renting himself? Also a fool in todays market, though might have worked in the past. Dave, good luck to him - sounds like he has hid head screwed on. Ed - sounds dodgy to me. Mid 20s in the RAF and already own BTLs!!! But anyway - do these people actually exist? -
The £157,250 Average Uk House Price Question
paradox replied to ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs's topic in House prices and the economy
Why is life too short to wait that long? Since I sold my flat and began renting a house my perspective on life has changed totally. Who knows I may never buy again. Or wait until I am approaching retirement and buy then - outright in cash obviously. The main thing for me now is enjoyment of life and capital preservation / accumulation. Owning a house will only be worthwhile if it contributes to the above. This means I am living in a place I would never be able to afford to buy, saving on mortgage / insurance / home repairs / etc and actively investing my capital. In the past the decision to buy was emotional and meant that being an OO was a big thing to me, now it is purely financial. Once the shock of no longer being an OO sinks in, you discover that there are many attractions to renting and investing as a lifestyle. What about the curtains? - well we have put up our own, put pictures on the walls, and the landlord is even prepared to allow us to paint the place if we want to (in fact, he seems desperate for us to stay). That is enough DIY for me. -
There is a book just out with the title - Is it just me or is everything sh*t? It has some House Price references in it. Surely the perfect present for many on this site. Did anyone get it for xmas? or buy it for someone else?
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What Could Constitute 'the Perfect Economic Storm'?
paradox replied to a topic in House prices and the economy
Heavy stuff, I was taking this thread at face value until I noticed that it was a response to your provocation. At the end of the day there are only four points that can be made. 1) We cannot predict the future but we can observe from experience that it is unlikely to be exactly the same as the past. 2) Nevertheless we can also observe cycles - war and peace, prosperity and depression, health and sickness, happy days and sad days. 3) The best we can do is be prepared for the worst without losing our optimism for the best. 4) There is a HPC sub culture in which people engage in mental fantasies of mass repossessions and flying squads of bailiffs zipping around the country and transporting indebted people to municipal caravan sites established for the purpose. This is a rational response to the anger, disappointment and disgust felt by many. They are angry and disappointed and disgusted about a combination of the following - HPI / Intergenerational injustices / missing the boat / uk property obsession / mass consumer debt culture. Fortunately (and for our entertainment) we are also regularly visited by investment professionals on the one hand and smug baby booming landlords on the other hand. The latter provoke us and the former stoke up our convictions. This potent cocktail is very attractive for the occassional troll. What interests me however are those who stumble on this site and then suffer a sinking feeling in the gut as they realise that they have miscalculated and been goaded by spin and cultural peer pressure into assuming a financial position which now looks extremely uncomfortable in the cold light of day. Are there any of you out there? -
The credit bubble could be inflated away, basically by printing more money to pay off all the debts. That is how many countries have got by in the past. Latin America is a good example. It leads to periodic bouts of currency depreciation in which the value of their currency plummets. Anyone holding dollars benefits as they are protected against this and life in fact gets cheaper for them. It also means that a polarisation of wealth occurs as every inflation serves to wipe out the savings, pensions and businesses of those who work in the national currency. I have lived in places like that. As an expat with dollars you live like a king. In fact I was living like a king whilst I "missed out" on the housing bonanza back here in grimy old blighty. Could Britain be heading in this direction. London would obviously remain a world city and a source of wealth, but the rest of it? I am from Sheffield. What is the point of Sheffield in todays world economy?? And what would be the hard currency we should hold if we are really heading in this direction?? (cue gold rampers) Alternatively.... The credit bubble could be followed by a prolonged period of stagnation and deflation in which we collectively pay off our debts and the prices of most things remain static or fall. Houses become very cheap and low inflation means that we have to pay back the FULL value of our debts, we are not helped out by wage increases and the printing of money. Japan has just gone through a decade of this. It did not stop them exporting Sony, Toshiba and Toyota goodies but (apparantly) it caused widespread misery and led to increased suicides. I have never experienced anything like this, but I remember the real recessions under the tories. Could Britain be heading in this direction? If it is then money in the bank is the best thing to have. Prices of everything will fall and credit will be difficult to get. So which will it be - inflation, deflation or neither and instead a very British a muddle through?