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The Masked Tulip

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Posts posted by The Masked Tulip

  1. 36 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

    Indeed, and flipping in these hotspots seems to have peaked too which is always a site sign we're at the end of the HPI cycle.

     

    Financial guy I follow in the US, Rick Ackerman, thinks that housing in the US has topped for a generation. He is expecting 70% falls and worse in the vacation home market.

    http://www.kereport.com/2017/09/06/rick-ackerman-copper-gold-markets/

    http://www.kereport.com/2017/09/13/usd-why-rick-thinks-we-could-see-120-on-the-usd-index/

  2. Just now, spyguy said:

    Im not sure. All mobile networks could face a rapid turn in tide.

    I have a couple of mobiles. One dumb phone ive had for 6 years, cost 40. Sim card unlimited mins and txt - 8/m.

    Other, a wileyfox that im trying to strip down to just google maps and other stuff. Basucally its a phone for development. Cost 140. Sim text only that i put 10 on every 3 months.

    Carphone - 60-70 m for a contract phone. Thats a lot of cash thats going out.

    Who knows, when tax credit hours are reduced and people are forced to cut spend and earn their cash.

     

    I got Sky Broadband unlimited fibre and a good TV bundle this time last year for £24 a month. If I stay with them it goes up to over £100 a month plus I have to start paying £20 a month to BT. So I cancelled.

    Shocks me that people are paying out £100 a month plus for TV and Internet.

  3. 17 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

    Every day a FTSE 350 company goes down by half in price.Now some of it is down to crap management (Provi),but some are massive massive leading indicators like Dixons.

    I actually rate them very highly as a company.I would probably of bought them now at this price at any time over the last 15 years.However i wont because of this.

    Recession is very close at hand as is a bear market of massive proportions.We are at the high water mark in terms of the consumer's impact on the economy it will be going down hugely over the next twenty years. Capital spending, military spending and infrastructure will play significant roles in the next cycle's growth. Demand for materials will be very high,consumer demand will not be.Remember these companies have large unfunded pension liabilities as well.

    As iv said many times.Earnings evaporate in a deflation event.

    Some thoughts:

    http://www.activetradingpartners.com/dot-com-bubble-do-over/

    http://www.activetradaingpartners.com/delinquencies-pile-up-will-commodities-make-a-massive-move-soon/

    http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-guns-of-august-the-trade-set-up--removing-your-rose-colored-glasses?post=145692

     

     

  4. 2 minutes ago, Mine the wheatfield said:

    It appears to be Phone related - specifically Roaming charges, not mouth breathers buying White and Brown goods.  It should not come as a great surprise - long enough for TPTB to move their money.

     

    How can we help? Do we all rush out today to buy the new £900 Samsung or do we wait for the £1200 Apple?

    Methinks people would be changing their phones every 12 to 24 months if phones cost £150.00 and not the price they do. Dixons will have to get on to Apple and Google to stop supporting phones older than 12 months. That will sort it.

  5. 4 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    FRAUD in other words.

     

    Has the look of a share that's bouncing and about to go through the floor.  Bit like Carillion, their recovery was short lived.

     

     

     

    Technically and legally it is not fraud when someone says they think such and such share is worth X and then decides to sell as much of it as they can. It is just an opinion. FOXTONs are worth £25.00 a share - now come and buy all my FOXTONs shares :lol:

    Analysts were saying lovely things about PF in the days and weeks prior to the recent news.

     

  6. 5 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    Provident financial nearly up 50% since I thought of buying at 450 ( now at 687.00GB ) .....hindsight is a wonderful thing.

     

    I agree though, these warnings could come thick and fast now and Christmas might be a bust for many.  Come April next year we could be in free fall.

     

    I think it was JP Morgan who said that the share was still worth £12.00 and so people bought the dip. Others have unkindly speculated that the banks now want rid of the stock and you will be seeing a lot of positive things said about it whlst distribution takes place.

  7. 2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    173.75GBX53.80 (23.64%)

    Just bear in mind that profit warnings in the past year for some retailers - Next and Tesco are two tha spring to mind - turned out to be lows and great buying opportunities for considerable bounces in the 6 months ahead.

    Christmas is coming so this stock SHOULD see a rise through to the end of the year. There will be pleny of buy the dippers for it in the coming hours methinks.

  8. Chickens coming home to... 

    I think this profit warning is interesting following on from the Provident Financial debacle. People have been maxed out with cheap subprime loans to buy TV's, (Am I the only one in the UK who doesn't have a 55 inch plus TV?), huge fridges, etc, etc, but you think that the likes of Currys would be profitting from all of us. But it seems those dodgy Provident loans are going back a long time.

    I think we are going to see more of these warnings - Next, Debenhams and Marks will be on the list IMPO.

    I have been following the US retail market with stores like JC Penney and Sears - once giants of US retail - now on their knees. Many smaller operations already having gone bust. People on both sides of the Atlantic are screwed by debt and high houses prices means, well, you know the story.

  9. Carney is desperate to keep IR's low as he knows that the housing bubble would burst with rising rates. The longer he leaves though the wrost things will ultimately be.

    I suspect he is gambling on - or already knows - that the US will not raise further. If the US does continue to raise, as the Fed says is their current intention, then the UK will have to play catch--up eventually.

  10. 21 minutes ago, Greg Bowman said:

    It also paid in the wrong way for years keeping hard working blue collar kids out of lucrative professional careers just because they didn't go to Uni, so I don't lose much sleep over it not paying now

     

    Agreed. And now it keeps vast numbers of people out of nursing, teaching and, IIRC, soon the police. These are all jobs where I believe actually being good at the job is more important than some generic and abstract qualification in Egyptology or Luvvie Studies

    (I use Egyptology as Swansea Uni has a course on it. It also has an excellent museum full of stuff nicked from Egypt as several Swansea rich guys went off to Egypt in the 1920's and dug up stuff. Anyhow, several years back the son of a friend of mine wanted to go study Egyptology. He fancied himself as Indiana Jones.

    I warned him off the pitfalls of running up student debt for something that probably would not give him work. He even visited the Egyptology museum and met graduates of the course who, working for free there, told him there were no jobs. Neither deterred him.

    Several years later. Huge student debt. No Indiana Jones stuff. Have no idea where he is working now. It sure ain't fighting Nazis and rescuing blonde maidens.)

     

  11. A US financial guy I follow - Rick Ackerman - does a daily commentary and he has been saying, for about a year, that a deflationary shock is coming.

    He points to things such as pension funds in the US which are basically bankrupt and do not have younger workers paying in: the US car firms doing well in recent years basically because they have lent cheap car loans and leasing to anyone and everyone but now the loans/leases are up and the cars are going back; the collapse of numerous high street store chains who have seen sales plunge; US houses in yet another bubble and, bottom line, enormous amounts of debt, baby boomers who have flourished but younger generations who are fecked.

    Here is his latest commentary:

    http://www.kereport.com/2017/05/23/trust-markets-rick-blame/

  12. 4 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

    In my game i know for a fact that there are probably half the retailers who should be bankrupt,but kept going due to interest rates being so low.The last business cycle saw no tightening so these zombie companies kept going.All that did is drag the better companies down to smaller and smaller margins,to the point now where people cant make a profit.Thats with interest rates at rock bottom.Missing out that tightening cycle has destroyed our economy underneath.I am 100% convinced our economy is rolling over,as is the US.The talk of things picking up/inflation etc is utter rubbish.This short term spurt of inflation is just before a massive deflationary crash.Imagine the end of the business cycle (the second one since interest rates last went up) alongside a massive increase of leverage on companies balance sheets.People are starting to sell for anything for cashflow.With wage increases,energy,rates etc about to kick it the abyss is dead ahead.

    It wont be a depression due to massive money printing to come,but its going to feel like one.

     

    Yes, hence why the gold bug folks say that gold will come into its own as the FED, BOE, ECB, etc, will be forced to do massive money printing - more and more QE.

    The US stock markets look ripe for a big correction to me. But they appear to be propped up everytime they start to correct. I am amazed they have not let them crash yet, used that as an excuse to say IR rises are off the table and that more QE is needed.

    Tesco has been interesting in the last week - on hotukdeals there have been all sorts of clearance stuff appearing for knock-down prices. Slghtly older models of things like computer hard drives, routers, sat navs, etc, etc, knocked down to a tenner or twenty quid. Looks as if they have gone through their stockrooms and basically chucked everything they can find onto the shelves. That smacks of desperation to me. Looks like, as you say, desperate for cash flow.

  13. 13 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

    I import.Item im selling now,the last 3 years each unit has cost me £41 to £43 to import all in factory to my storage.Just landed those 3 weeks ago and they cost me £49 each (due to sterling).I get £73 for them after all costs.My profits have fallen by 33%.I cant get more for them,people wont pay.Now for me im not bothered.Im a one man band with no staff and no debts.I also have no fixed costs.I can easily see this cycle out and tick over.However imagine most retailers selling into this?.They are going to get crushed.Already im seeing pricing at break even levels across many many products,and thats break even getting them factory to door and shipping.Im not counting any debt,rent,staff etc.

    Pretty obvious a lot of retailers are trying to get cash flow in,short term desperation.Over in the US the same is happening,and thats before the $ weakens.70% roughly of the economy here and there.The Fed is tightening into this,as is the BOE (QE stopped).Thats insane,but they missed a whole business / tightening cycle last time and are about to reap the whirlwind of that.There is about to be a sea of deflation unleashed as we get the end of the business cycle at the same time as a huge balance sheet recession.People will be shocked at the depth and speed of the crash.Companies carrying massive debts because it was cheap will see just how cheap it wasnt when earnings evaporate and they cant pay,or re-finance.Once done and a lot of companies have gone to the wall a real big fat reflation cycle will begin.Interest rates will be chasing that inflation higher in 3 or 4 years.

    BTL etc is going to get destroyed through the deflation and early years of the reflation cycle.Houses down 40%,interest rates up 300% and nowhere to re-finance.Younger people on this forum waiting to buy,hold on,it wont be much longer IMO.

     

    Fascinating read. I am going to make some more cheese on toast and read it again.

    I keep reading on US financial forums about the US & Canadian equivalents of Debenhams are in their death throes - closing stores, etc. A financial guru, who admittedly is a big bear, has been speaking for a year about the coming collapse of the US shopping malls. First the big US s tores go and then the US malls go - but the pension funds have invested big time in the malls and many towns and cities are now totally reliant upon them.

    They say that the US is only X years ahead of us. I wonder how long before we start to see big out of town shopping centres in the UK close.

    People I follow on financial forums in the US think that the US will not be able to raise rates again for the reasons you mention. Some think that gold will soar in price as the US tries to reflate but, heck I don't know about such things. Above my pay grade.

     

    When May called the election my first thought was that, between now and then, we would see a rush of sales from retailers desperate to get people to buy during the uncertain period of an election when, apparently, people hold off from buying. Today's retail figures show that people have already held off and, this morning, we had figures out that car insurance has gone up. Next week gas/electricity is rising. Politiians want everyone to scrap their diesel car. Worrying times for most British people so I can see more people not spending in shops because their cost of living essentials are rising.

  14. 1 hour ago, 24 year mortgage 8itch said:

    Nor the internet it would seem :D

     

    Good grief - that is an amazing rise in Boohoo's share price over the past 2 years. That will teach me not to NOT have kids. I knew nothing about it. The site does not impress but clearly it is good enough to get people buying clothes from it. Year final results next week.

    Could be the best chance of the UK having some kind of Amazon if they get into more stuff than just clothing. Gone from a profit warning in Jan 2015 to a 1 billion company today. Never heard of it. I feel such a d*ck. (Now, now!).

  15. British retail sales posted the biggest quarterly fall in seven years during the first three months of 2017, as rising prices since last year's Brexit vote started to pressure consumers.

    Retail sales volumes contracted 1.4 percent in the first quarter following a 0.8 percent rise in the last three months of 2016, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday.

    That was the biggest quarterly fall since the first quarter of 2010, and is likely to reinforce the view among many economists that household spending - the main driver of the economy - is now slowing.


    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-retail-idUKKBN17N0V3

  16. On 31/03/2017 at 11:25 PM, Odysseus said:

    The batteries will last longer than the cars themselves. VMs are currently looking into battery resales after the end of a vehicles life. The majority of an electric cars residual value will lie with the batteries.

     

    Is there any evidence that the batteries will last longer or is this just spin put out by a car industry that needs to convince us of this to get us to buy the cars in the first place?

    Every other kind of battery I know of gets dramatically worth in time. It would be a technological revolution if the car industry has created batteries that can do what other batteries, even batteries of smartphones and latops, have failed to do.

  17. 18 minutes ago, Travisher said:

    Everybody is ignoring that the national grid would have to be upgraded to carry 5 times as much power as it is capable of at present - just to charge the car batteries, let alone cook your dinner or power the TV.

    Most of the battery technologies being touted as successor to the current crop have a duty cycle of around 100 recharges. That is not a solution, its a scam to get suckers to fund their 'research' into private yachts.

    People are saying that uranium has bottomed and that a boom in uranium prices is about to begin because electric cars, after all the huffing and puffing about other power sources, will need nuclear power stations to supply the demand.

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