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I think what we are seeing here (rising ASKING prices) is an attempt by EAs and vendors to get buyers to offer at about 10% below asking, making them think they are getting a bargain. It is a desperate last chuck of the dice - a death rattle, if you like. I am not surprised in the least by these figures. The longer the denial, the more painful the crash for many...

;D lol!!! Are you feeling alright?!

There has never been a plateau in Houseprices and I don't think there ever will be. So much is driven by sentiment as well as affordability that I can't see prices just being 'propped up.' Right now we're on the cusp of the downward curve; it's only a matter of how fast and far it drops before coming back up again. Cutting IRs will be like patching up the hole in the titanic - it'll just go down a bit slower...but down it will go!

sad thing is, many are doing (have done) this and have affected areas in Spain, Cyprus, etc. by pushing prices up over there, leaving locals high & dry!

I've just exchanged contracts (Yippee!) on my 2 bed cottage in Southgate, North London. Valued at 245K a YEAR AGO, valued for exactly the same 3 months ago. Accepted 240K. Phew. Didn't even get another offer. Consider myself lucky. 2 doors away, back on the market for 10 grand less (he was asking 259K six months ago - stupid, considering stamp duty level, but no offers.) Still FOR SALE. Another 2 bed on same street is constantly falling through - SOLD board followed by FOR SALE board, etc. (Agent is HAART, exceptionally aggressive around here) Around the corner, a big 4 bedder (I think) been on for AT LEAST 6 months. Now multi-agent. Best of all, passed it yesterday and NEXT DOOR has just gone on the market too. Be interested to know price difference, if any. Another nearby on the market for about a year has gone multi agent - best board of all simply says "BUY ME!" Unashamed desperation! Agent that sold my house is saying "We're getting more instructions now, so hopefully things will pick up." Yes, but will they sell, matey..?! The spring 'bounce' flood of properties is kicking off...supply outstripping demand, leading to...well, I think you know what.

Absolutely. So please define 'tail off.' Do you mean plateau? Or do you accept that it's heading south?

Nothing scientific about watching people around me trying to sell their houses at last years' peak prices for months and failing. Common sense dictates when is a good time to buy, and when a market's on the way down, why not wait till it bottoms out?

I sense your frustration, but it's not really the government's fault, IMHO. It's a simple case of market forces and supply & demand. The best thing I can say to you in consolation is that financial markets are cyclical; I couldn't have dreamt of getting on the ladder back in the 80s but then WHAM, a crash accompanied by inflation in wages and flats were affordable again! And it is a widely held belief (here, at least) that another crash is upon us. And it's due mainly to people like you who've said: "No, I'm not buying now. I can't." That's the best protest of all to stop a market in its tracks - don't buy into it.

Too many folk on this forum are expecting things to happen overnight. Of course there are examples of people selling up, even now, at asking price - I sold recently for 5K below asking, but I am convinced that I got lucky and am an exception to current trends, not the rule. I never had any other serious viewings, let alone any other offers. For every house like the one you sited that sells for asking price, I'll bet there are several more that aren't. As indeed there are in my street! There will always be greater fools...

I hope this is for real - I wonder what P & K truly feel when they encourage another poor unsuspecting soul into property ownership at the very height of the market. Do they honestly think they've done them a favour? Or are they so up themselves that they just want another TV series?

If only all EAs were working to that agenda! Some still seem to be sticking their fingers in their ears and shouting very loudly: "La, la, la, prices have stabilised, la, la, la, the market has really picked up..etc.." I await price reductions that reflect the state of the market...only a matter of time, I guess. As you say, they need turnover - volume of sales is all that matters to EAs, ultimately.

Is he usually this bearish..? Housing experts said the Registry's figures bore out anecdotal evidence from estate agents of a sharp slowdown in activity in the second half of last year as the property market cooled. The decline in transactions brings activity back towards what it was a decade ago, after the housing crash of the early 1990s. Miles Shipside, of the property website Rightmove, said: "The fall in prices is one thing, but the large fall in volumes tells a bigger story than the decline in prices. There have quite simply been far fewer buyers in the market over the last six months or so. The Land Registry is now reporting transactions that were agreed in late summer or early autumn of last year and we can expect their next set of figures to show a further decline in volumes and prices." Ominous warning noises, me thinks!

Go and make a silly offer - 350K for starters!

Er, who gives the valuations? Sure, a vendor wants the best price, but if EAs add a few grand to secure instructions (and we all know this happens) or adds a little to absorb any offers made on the property, is it any wonder we got into that insane upwards spiralling of prices?! We are all guilty in this feeding frenzy, including purchasers - it's only now that the FTBs are priced out and a sense of caution has taken effect that we might see sanity restored.

I wince at the fact that the Home & Leisure channel is airing episode after episode of LOCATION x3 that are clearly over two years old. The sort of advice being offered by Allsopp & Spencer in these programmes when the market was on the up and up should simply not be screened now. It's hugely irresponsible and they should stop broadcasting! NOW!

Be interesting to know what the average FTB mortgage is...sure as eggs it ain't 40K!

Not sure about that. Agreed, there are areas like 'up-coming' Hackney which have risen inexplicably, but I think these'll be hit hard. Established, affluent areas will still be desirable places to live and won't fall as dramatically. Friends of mine in Dartmouth Park (NW LONDON) just sold for near asking price and although this is clearly exceptional in the current climate, the demand for homes in decent areas will always be there and maintain a premium. Agree that most of Camden & Islington are dire, though! Overcrowded, dirty and dangerous! And I've lived in both boroughs...eurgh.

EAs operate on the same principal; a 10% drop in prices isn't going to cripple them, so long as they maintain a high volume of sales. The pressure on me to reduce my house price was immense from the EA...they just wanted the commission ASAP, even if it was a few hundred quid lighter!

I love this, though..the 12-20 rule!: ...Is it complicated? No. It's simple. If the price of a house is 12 times or less the annual rental income you can achieve from that house, then it is a 'buy'. A good investment in other words. These levels were last seen in the UK almost 5 years ago, and in the US over 3 years ago. Conversely, if the price of a house is 20 times or more the annual rental income you can achieve on that house, then it is a definite 'sell'. As an example, say you want to buy a house priced at $100,000. You know that the house currently rents for $10,000 a year. According to the calculation, the house will be a 'good buy' up to 12 x $10k, i.e. $120,000 , so in this case yes, it is worth buying now, as you are likely to both cover the mortgage costs with the rent, or even make a small profit on it, and also benefit from any coming capital growth. Another example, you own a house that rents out at $20,000 a year in a s*****y neighborhood. You notice that identical houses in the street are up for sale (and selling!) at over $500,000. Guess what - it's time to sell - the house is over 20 times more expensive than the annual rent! Chances of any more capital appreciation in this market are slim, and you can actually make a far better return by simply selling the house and putting the proceeds into an interest bearing bank account. Interestingly, most amateur investors tend to hold property rather past this point, and end up unable to sell as the market tips to the downside. If the figure of annual rent to price is already way past 20, you may be too late to sell easily. Not as complicated as it seems, is it? Just remember the '12 - 20' rule, and you should be able to enter an exit the house market at the very best times.

Rent rises & rate drops are just VI wishful thinking right now. Neither are as realistic or imminent as you may think. And neither will stop the HPC. People HAVE been investing in property on stock market principles, and good luck to them. Buy low, sell high. They're not all hanging onto property in the misguided belief that prices will keep rising. With so many BTLs dumping stock, I'd say it was EXACTLY like the dot com bubble!

But if you accept prices will drop (even 'mildly'), why not wait till then and buy back in? Especially if you believe IRs will drop also. I strongly recommend you take the common sense approach!

But you haven't mentioned capital gain/loss. You are clearly assuming that house prices will continue to rise and rise...which they ain't. It's a no-brainer.

Interesting theory, although I feel interest rates are no longer such an issue with regards the HPC; yes, they'd hasten a crash, but it's well under way, anyway, simply driven by (lack of) affordability and LOSS OF CONFIDENCE in the market. Be patient, it is happening...without the need for drastic IR rises which would knock on in many other ways, as you suggested.

Tell him to quit conveyancing and move into marital break-ups; the divorce rate is in no danger of crashing!

Hmm... and conversely, my girlfriend is being kicked out of her flat because the landlord is selling up. He's panicking, too, offering it to her for 220K, but made it clear he'd take a BIG HIT on that price. I told her to just move next door which has been up for LET for ages...