red
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Posts posted by red
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wow.
Sibley must have creamed in his Thai pyjamas when he saw this...
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it's asking prices and not well mix adjusted AFAIK, meaningless drivel
perhaps to us, but to someone selling who's reading your average rag trumping this as another 'Good news - house prices rise' story, it's just pegging back negative sentiment and perhaps delaying the time that they cut their asking prices.
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Rightmove already posting a big fat -3%:
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=157807
Although I can assure you that isn't the case around here...
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Why? If they know they will need to raise rates, why not raise them NOW?
Cos they will claim raising IRs will only take effect in a year or so re: inflation and that they predict inflation will fall by then so no action needed. Shysters. It's been their get out of jail card during this entire farce...
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It is a bubble and prices aren't normal, I have not said they aren't. But if the events of September 2008 didn't send things crashing down, what will?
They did.
Only savage IR cuts saved the market.
I saw 20% reductions within 3 months around here. Over 140 properties in my category on the market (Rightmove stats). Now, 65 and asking prices close to 2007 peak.
IRs are the key.
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Resulting in a very slow sluggish decline, but that only gives us more time to accumulate
sadly, time isn't on my side...
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OK, here's latest anecdotal on the ground here in London N2:
We're now registered with all EAs in the area. They all say more properties coming on - they've had more valuations, etc. and that we should see boost in supply in next couple of months.
Great.
Problem?
I suspect an awful lot will again be those who don't have to move, and the asking prices will be circa 2007.
If they don't get what they want, their denial will kick in and they'll withdraw from market as they have done for the past two years.
There simply aren't enough forced sellers.
Relying on sentiment alone in an affluent area of London means we're in for a long drawn-out affair...
Unless IRs rise, it's going to take a looooong time, I fear.
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I know someone who has been trying to sell his house for 16 months. It's a one bedroom, single-storey maisonette worth about 50k today. It was put on for about 145k and then tweaked down by a few percent to today's asking price of 137k. And this is someone who seriously needs to move.
If only.
Had he really needed to move he'd have sold it and taken the hit - he'd have had no choice.
This is the problem - not enough forced sellers with such low IRs.
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Well spotted it should be
10 PRINT "INFLATION WILL BE LOWER IN 18 MONTHS"
20 GOTO 10
Wow. Someone else who did 'BASIC' at school!
p.s. absolutely no chance of a rise in rates. I'll run naked around the BoE if they do...
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Saw it in the Sunday Times Home supplement which is bull-porn, of course. (The wife likes the other supplements leaving me to read the tripe written by David Smith, et al).
A successful young barrister had to be quick to 'snap up' a flat in Cambridge where prices have risen a gazillion percent and will never, ever drop...etc..
Can't post link (refuse to pay Murdoch more cash)
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Rubbish. It is falling at the same pace and the numbers are bigger of course.
Confuscious, he say - asking prices are not selling prices. Ask not what they say but ask if the EAs are actually doing any work?
I can only speak for my part of London and I have to say, much as it pains my very soul, supply has been so low and there are still plenty of trustafarians/bank of mum & dad types around, that anything half decent is selling quickly at asking/near asking price. Land reg stats confirm this. I've been tracking for a year or so and am kicking myself I didn't buy during the 2008 dip when 650K houses were going for 500K. Now they're back up to 650...and selling.
I'm not a young 'un who can wait around like many here - I have a young child and need a family home.
I will now buy when it's affordable to me, not when the market reaches a perceived bottom. That could be ages...
It's all very, very frustrating.
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Nice! But why oh why are houses selling at peak 2007 prices +10% in my area. Just not fair.
Because there are too few quality properties with enough cash-rich fools around prepared to pay top dollar - still.
That's certainly the story around here in North London, anyway - until we see more forced sales / more supply or the much hoped-for IR rises, it's going to take ages.
The Halifax stats, though largely meaningless as they account for so few properties being sold, are at least a blow to bullish sentiment.
But I fear that those who've benefited most from HPI (baby boomers in their 50s) are now in positions of most power and are desperate to keep the bubble going...this could be a long, drawn-out affair.
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Given that the November figure was just down 0.1% and we've had all the snow etc since then, I'm hoping for something greater than down half a percent this time...
Nah - it'll be +0.3%
seasonal adjustment, innit...
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http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20110108/tuk-david-miliband-in-approach-to-bbc-6323e80.html
A deeply committed "conviction" politician?
Or new labour opportunist media luvvy scum?
I just can't decide.....
I prefer 'Youth hostelling with Chris Eubank'
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I'm with JC. It's high time these people just saved a deposit, bought a first time buy and stopped dreaming prices will crash. They won't because the UK won't allow it to happen simple. Homeowners are the life blood of the country. Most of the people wishing for price falls are credit blacklisted anyway and will never be in a position to buy. They should not be allowed to comment n these stories.
- Sibley, Bangkok Thailand., 06/01/2011 01:04
what a prize twunt
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Tough.
Sellers will now have to learn the lesson that they no longer control the price. The Buyers do.
Depends where you are.
Unfortunately, there are still a few cash-rich muppets (bank of mum & dad types) prepared to pay asking price for the few decent properties that come up around here (N2). It seems that all it takes is one or two sales for EAs to think they can whack asking prices up a notch and we're back in the bull cycle mentality...it's very, very frustrating.
Two years ago (mid-crash) good semis weren't selling for 500K. Now the few that come on are going for 650. Not enough forced sales with IRs so low.
I just pray it's another bull trap and that when the last great fools have been sucked in, we'll see some falls...
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Had some old chap who's trying to downsize by flogging his 3 bedroomed house but it has been on the market for over a year with no buyers. Annoyingly, not once did the reporter put it to him that the price he's trying to get might be a bit too high. That really annoyed me.
There was a similar piece on BBC news last night following the 'good' news about Nationwide positive figs for December.
reporter basically saying that although it was great that prices were rising (yea, right) it was frustrating for vendors who couldn't find buyers (damn those buyers for refusing to shackle themselves to a lifetime of debt slavery so I can offload my shoebox).
Absolutely no mention of maybe lowering the price to meet affordability.
Sigh.
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‘But many people spend a lot more before they have the commitment of a mortgage and then cut back accordingly.’
Better be careful what he says, an admission that spending all your money on a mortgage may not be beneficial to the wider economy.
So true - and something so fundamental that seems utterly lost on the 'experts' when they drone on about mortgage availability as the key to our problems.
The idea that housing debt is good and any other debt is bad is simply insane.
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she may have lived in a £200k flat but she was a loser-forever-renter
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Recently, the comments section of these articles read like a bear orgy - I'd like to think we aren't soley responsibe for this. However, I do enjoy giving a red arrow to strokers like beth who are utterly ignorant to the debilitating effects of expensive housing.
Then you've got the classic comments like:
..Of course, the only people who want house prices to fall are those who hesitated when they had the chance to buy, and resent the fact that they missed the boat on the way up. They would see millions poorer just to suit them. See my other post on "atheist working class mentality".You mean those 'wealthy' hard working individuals who scrimped and saved and went without luxuries so they could buy a house they could afford rather than people who believe that it should be handed to them on a plate?You can smell the ignorance and fear...
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That is EXACTLY how it is done....
Was speaking to a work colleague the other day - who told me how at least 2 mortgage brokers [one was Bradford & Bingley] asked him HOW MUCH HE WANTED TO SPEND ON A PROPERTY - and filled out the application form & "income" accordingly.....
IT WAS ENDEMIC. IS IT STILL? I reckon it is still going on in one form or another........
LIAR LOANS: DESTROYERS OF THE WORLD....
I don't think you even require an income if you want to buy it to rent it out.
The crucial difference now, though, is the deposit required - unless you want to pay punitive IRs, the best rates are 75% LTV and lower.
The banks know prices are headed south and are covering their @rses - just as they were happy to splash it about at 100% LTV when 'we' all believed prices could only ever go up...
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Simply the fear of losing one's job is enough - I myself am revising my plans for buying having had a lean couple of years work-wise; I know people who've shelved plans to buy altogether as they fear losing their jobs. Could this alone prove to be the catalyst?
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Wow. They really are going for it, aren't they?
No sign of Sibley there, yet - he's probably holding an open day viewing on a block of new-builds that haven't sold since 2008...
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BBC Radio 5 Live were at it again just now - talking about 'the dangers' of house price falls, with Miles (Shipside, I think) blathering on about how banks will need to get lending again (liar loans) to save the market (re-inflate the bubble).
The irony is, they mentioned this on the back of saying how utility bills were going up and people couldn't afford to pay them but seem to accept that paying more for property is not only OK, but should be encouraged...the idea that taking on massive debt (should the banks allow it again) is alright because it's property and prices should never be allowed to fall - never mind that you can't afford to light and heat the place afterwards!
They just don't get it and it's being trumped as the 'truth' by supposed experts, re-enforcing the myth that the problem is with the banks' lending criteria, not our over-priced property market!
AAAAAAAARRRRRRRGH!
Feck me, I'm angry.
Rpi: 4.8% Cpi: 3.7%
in House prices and the economy
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mmm. My NS&I certs looking good value.