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Posts posted by red

  1. ...that's very interesting ....do you have a link....?... :rolleyes:

    Are you genuinely interested or simply doubting my honesty?



    Both roads I have been tracking and made offers on recently. I've stopped now as prices have accelerated beyond my range and, as I said, we're in silly season - it's bound to slow down, of course.

    On the first road, a place went under offer at 775 asking price recently. The sort of place that would sell for 500-550 2 years ago.

  2. Yes, Bruce. Most things point to a long-term decline. LOOOONG-term... Life is too short, I wont be hanging around the UK to support this bubble much longer. The (short-term) crash everybody has been hoping for isn't going to happen - I'm amazed that it hasn't, to be honest, but that's government intervention and vested interests for you, as well as the ability of the UK to keep others remotely confident in them despite record debt.

    No WAY am I waiting 5+ years. I'm out of here in a couple of years.

    With you there - we're now seriously considering a move abroad.

    The idea of providing a pension pot for someone at what are now peak prices around here is becoming less appealing by the minute...

  3. +1

    Doesn't matter how many times I tell people this they look at me as if I am mad!

    Most people would argue that paying your own mortgage off is better than paying your landlord's one off...

    OK, I'm playing devil's advocate, but I never intended to rent for 5 years, as I have. My rent is the equivalent to a 250k mortgage.

    I regret not buying two years ago when prices around here fell by around 20%. We're now ABOVE 2008 peak prices, thanks to rate cuts that saved the market and which decimated my savings that were paying most of my rent.

    I could have paid off 50K of that by now and enjoyed creating a home for my expanding family.

    Now I am sat in a cramped, rented flat with prices rising faster than I can save.

    It's utterly s h i t.

    And when I see posts on here heralding 'bargains to be had' and 'prices falling 30%', I simply think, 'if only'.

    What will it take to finally take London prices down, ffs?

    (edit for spelling and extra ranting...)

  4. Are they asking prices though? If the stats are to be believed then most house sell for 91% of asking price. Around here asking prices are probably around 2 or 3% off peak for the lower end of the Market (I don't look at expensive houses) and selling prices are are about 10% off peak.

    I have offered 10-15% below asking price on three properties recently and all have gone for asking price. Each time one sells of similar spec, the next one to come on is a little more expensive. Vendors are trying it on like it's the good old days and sadly there seems to be no end of mugs queuing to 'snap them up'.

    One EA said it's the 'Islington overflow' effect, whereby two young professionals with a 300K+ flat each sell up and move somewhere slightly further out to buy a family house. Unfortunately, that means price rises in areas like mine that were once relatively affordable.

    Another EA bemoaned the fact that there were so few properties and said a rate rise was needed to force a few more onto the market!

    Couldn't come soon enough, I reckon...

  5. Still over 20k over 2004 prices in my area (near Bournemouth), very jealous of all the above figures^^^

    Well, we're now above peak 2007/8 prices around here (N2), and rising - certainly not reflecting the Land Reg stats.

    One can only hope the 'London lag' will catch up with the rest of the country sooner rather than later...

  6. + 1

    A pent-up supply is flooding the market here in the south, south-east and London.

    Prices will fall like a stone here this year. :)

    Hmm. Easy with the sweeping generalisations.

    Here in N2 prices are rising faster than I can increase my deposit. It's ludicrous. And that's because of very limited supply. No 'flooding' here, I'm afraid.

    Anything remotely decent goes within a week and the next one that comes on is 25K more. And on it goes.

    You could argue this is a bubble upon a bubble but with 30-something couples selling up their two 300K+ flats in nearby Islington and wanting to start families, this area is fast becoming unaffordable to the average Mr & Mrs Red...

  7. Grossly overpriced house (started at £595k in Dec, gone to £575k then £550k last week) has just gone 'POA'.

    Similar sized house with bigger garden and a swimming pool 30m away went has gone unsold since the summer at £450k. Only two sales in the area since 2002, both around £600k, both much larger places (granny flats, extra bedrooms, major extensions) though that is not necessarily apparent from the land registry records.

    Seller is well-known in the area, fascinating mix of greed mingled with desperation and total detachment from reality. (It's been rented out for a while but was up for sale for two years between 2006 and 2008 at around the £600k mark).


    I've seen cars labelled POA before but not houses? A way of avoiding publicising a major price drop perhaps?

    I've never understood 'POA' - as if having to call the agent for the price is going to somehow temper the effect of finding out how absurdly over-valued it is.

    Similarly, 'offers in excess...' means absolutely nothing - except to a nervy vendor convinced their property is 'worth' a certain amount 'and not a penny less.'

    The buyer sets the price. End of.

  8. Doesn't help sentiment though does it.

    Nope. And as I keep saying, all it takes is for one property to sell at these absurd asking prices (particularly in areas where there's so little good stock available) for all other vendors in the area to justify their own idea of their property's 'value'.

    It's a situation that will only change when vendors are taken out of this little comfort zone they happen to be in right now (in my area, at least).

    IR rises, please... <_<

    p.s. a chat with a local EA on Saturday revealed that he is keen to see IRs rise and prices fall in order to get volumes up. The penny's dropped for one, it would seem.

  9. If true, are they mental? New sellers that is.

    The village is short of its idiot.

    Really? What would you do if you were selling right now and the house next door had just sold in excess of 2008 peak prices?

    Cos I know what I'd do - try it on at the same asking price. Perhaps a bit more.

    And that's what I'm seeing around here. Can't blame the vendors for having a go as there seem to be no end of cash-rich mugs prepared to fork out top dollar right now.

    Annoying but it's just market forces. Until the market gets a jolt of rate rises, that is...

  10. What makes you think the cash rich city boys and foreigners want to buy a house in Romford or Milton Keynes? Or the other 98% of the country that fall in the middle class or below category for that matter?

    Only desperate VIs would make up with such strange arguments. We've heard this one since 07 and it still doesn't make any sense IMO?

    I refer to decent parts of London - and Milton Keynes isn't in London, btw.

    Where I live - and intent to buy - we're back to pre-2008 prices. Fact.

    A weaker pound has attracted foreign money since the crunch, no doubt about that. And they're buying in affluent parts of the capital, pushing prices up. Not many, but enough to have an effect on the stats.

    I don't see how one can argue that London is holding up better whilst prices nationally fall and for the reasons I've outlined.

    And to label me a 'desperate VI' is laughable considering the many years I've been here making my opinions very clear...not clear enough, I guess.

  11. This wouldn't be a "sideways" move then. IMO, the EAs are incorrect when they suggest house prices will be largely flat or move sideways this year. More like the biggest mother of a crash the world has seen!

    I hope I haven't moved too quickly having secured a 20% drop on a house that had already dropped by about the same amount last year (£325k down to £200k). Fing is, I got tired of waitnig and need a place to live and get settled.

    I still belive houses are set for AT LEAST 15% down this year--might even see 25%.

    You did very well to bargain down to 200k from 325k... I'd be c0ck-a-hoop with that sort of %age drop around here.

  12. It is clear now that there is little demand for or willingness to provide mortgage products. I just wonder how long the same excuses / reasons / explanations from the property industry can continue without the obvious being pointed out.

    It's as if no one of any authority in the enitre property business dare mention that lower houses prices is the answer.

    I'm also amazed that EAs are just buying all these excuses and then belly aching when the lender's valuations come in 20% + under the buyer's offers. I just can't see how the EAs can continue with such low levels of completions. It is very much in the EAs interests to have lower house prices yet they continue to strangle their businesses.

    Well, the EA who showed me around a home last week actually said as much - that they wished prices would fall so they could do more business.

    They would claim, of course, that their dilemma is they can't give lower valuations as they'd get no instructions - the seller's expectations must be addressed, too; it would also help if buyers weren't leaping in and desperately buying at near asking price, which merely re-enforces other vendors' expectation of a high price. Lots of factors at play, here.

  13. Looks like things are starting to move properly. If this spring bounce falls flat the real bearfood will be unleashed. Two months?

    I would dearly love to believe that could happen in London, but I fear there's a resilience that'll take some shifting...there's simply too much money swilling around to keep the bubble going (cash-rich City boys, foreign money, etc.) and unless we see meaningful IR rises, Londoners will sit tight restricting supply, maintaining bubble prices.

    Happy to be proved wrong, of course...hopefully before I end up buying at these insane prices. <_<

  14. Not overly surprised, but as a tracker person am nevertheless happy.

    I wonder what is going to happen once Sentance steps down imminently? Does anyone know anything about his replacement and what this general consensus is likely to be on where rates should be?

    Ben Broadbent.


    I think the fact that the markets have 'priced in' rate rises mean it's a case of when, not if, the BoE raise.

    The effects of them being 'vigilant' and doing nothing could have other damaging repercussions, of course...


  15. It pains me to say it but I think this may be sadly true. I have been a member of this site for many years and am currently sitting with my fingers crossed that I will finally be able to afford a decent place to live in 18 months time in and around outer South West London (Kingston / Surbiton etc) - I earn pretty decent money tbh so any "normal" market and income multiple of lending ought to enable me to buy something suitable...

    ...currently looking with the missus and rental properties - 2 bed flats and small houses - and I am noticing a trend. Virtually every flat we have seen has been part of a larger block or development and the answer is the same every time - "yea, its the same guy who owns all 8 flats" blah blah - these arent dumps either, they are nice properties on decent roads.... then there is the guy who lives in my current block - he has a Range Rover, BMW M6 and a Bentley all parked next to each other (d1ck) and again owns a string of properties all over SW London. The whole ownership thing is so out of balance and its no use wishing for 1% rises in interest rates to blow these people out of the water - yes, this may clear our a few financially illiterate amateurs but the last 15 years (and it is 15 now, not 10) has allowed a relative few to amass a huge chunk of the property stock and this is now institutionalised - they don't need to sell, they won't sell - rental prices are going mental down here as all the would be buyers (eg Me, Aged 35) are forced to carry on renting. If you see somewhere decent, you need to take it there an then...

    I hope I am wrong but I fear this could be a crash preventing factor inside the M25

    One anecdote - a good friend of mine put his flat on the market the other week in Kingston (2 bed, ground floor) for 315 - he is a good lad and i wish him no ill but from a HPC perspective was hoping to see some good crash evidence. He sold it for 300 within a month. No crash here yet..... so RB may be right wrt London when he says "koff and live somewhere else"..............

    I agree with RB to a point in that London is certainly where the money is, hence higher prices. But moving out is not an option for us for various reasons and having seen prices crash so sharply around here in 2008 (damn, I wish I'd bought then!) I just hope that a turn in sentiment is not that far away (following an IR rise, for example) to soften the market.

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