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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by red

  1. Anytime property comes up in discussion now, I just say "the less we spend on housing costs, the more can be spent in the economy" and leave it at that,

    I think I said that on the radio show, but I think it falls on deaf ears, to be honest.

    People just think: "Yeah, but my house will be worth more in 20 years." And repeat this to themselves whenever anything vaguely non-HPI is uttered.

  2. Just heard 'expert' David Buick from BCG Partners on LBC saying that an IR rise would endanger any 'recovery' in the housing market.

    So a 'recovery' in house prices means that they continue going up thereby making home-ownership more expensive.

    Why don't the sheeple understand this? That we'd actually be better off if we spent less on servicing property debt?

    Why do we bemoan every other rise in daily expenditure which pales into insignificance when you consider how much we pay for property in the misguided belief that it's a one-way bet 'investment'?

    I suspect David Buick is just another baby-boomer up to his nuts in property, petrified that lower house prices would compromise his retirement fund.

    Ditto half the government and the BoE... <_<

  3. Bootle agrees with him.

    He was just on Radio 5 saying that the BoE can't raise rates for two years as the economy is too fragile.

    So the banks will continue to cream in the profits at 4% above base and house prices will decline gradually, nominally, but more so in real terms due to low wage inflation v real inflation.

    And screw the savers - serves them right for not going out and spending like what we told them to... :blink:

  4. London is NOT immune. The area of London that I live in (north), I watch Rightmove very closely and use property bee. All the properties, even high end ones are either static or coming down. Nothing is going up and these are asking prices. Also, if you look on the number of sales in this part of London, it mirrors exactly the drop in velocity over the whole of the UK. Even the 'rich' middle classes are feeling the pinch. Very few properties are selling regardless and if a few high end ones sell, they distort the figures so everyone assumes that London is immune.

    where in N London, exactly?

  5. I have an 19 month old. We have a very nice place we live in and have a great quality of life. It wouldn't be as rosey if our landlords told us they were selling up though. Though, thanks to another poster on here, if we did have to move, I'd get a place that I could rent longterm without the worry of the owner kicking us out.

    Buying a house and paying it off is a great thing to do. But all signs point to cheaper housing in future. So holding off buying might mean the mortgage being cleared sooner. The market here seems reasonably sluggish, yet ZIRP and some funky London effect seem to keep them from outright falling.

    My wifes work went through a round of redundancies. Lots of her colleagues live in London. I don't see buying a very expensive house or rental unit in London as being a good investment if interest rates go up. You might as well hang onto your cash.

    Similarly, we have a 6 month old baby. All family & friends in London. Both of us work in London.

    We live in an area where prices (at the moment) are rising faster than we can save a deposit. Yes, I remain convinced that prices will fall, but playing the waiting game isn't easy when you're living in a small rental flat with a baby about to start crawling.

    Options: bite the bullet, move out to cheaper suburb and buy, or rent a larger ground floor flat and keep waiting...pros and cons either way.

  6. There were a lot of ex-local authority places that were not that expensive back then. In 1999, they were even cheaper and in some parts of London you could pick up ex-local authority 2 bed flats for less than £30K.

    I bought my first zone 2 flat (Islington) for 50K in 1997. The guy I bought it from acquired it under the 'right to buy' scheme for 35k.

    Then we got our orgy of lending and those flats were going for 185k in 2007... :blink:

  7. No he's not writing utter nonsense. He's reporting the market as he has experienced it in London, which is far more useful than your vague prognostications citing zero facts (while accusing others of not providing them) all garlanded in casual insults (insults like 'utter nonsense'). Since presumably you don't follow the London market in detail as you don't actually live there, perhaps he just knows more about it that you do? His reports chime far better with my actual experience of the London housing market over the last decade than your self-assured ignorance.

    The London market has so far been quite resilient - remains to be seen what will happen, but a crash is by no means a given - markets can remain irrational for a long, long time, and we may well have a soft landing caused by the government's inflationary policies, in which case buying a house or other asset would be a better hedge against inflation than saving and renting - at present the government is effectively taking money from savers, and giving it to debtors. That's wrong, unfair, irrational, etc etc, but it is happening, and in those circumstances, we may not see a crash in London at all in nominal terms (save the mini one in 2008). A real terms crash doesn't make debtors any worse off than savers, and that's all we might see in London due to other factors (constant inflow of foreign cash due to the debased currency, concentration of the wealth of the nation in the capital etc).

    Couldn't agree more. ;)

  8. Isn't two years exactly the bottom of the first dip? It's an interesting point to measure from. Why didn't you measure from the peak?

    Because the OP asked if prices in London were booming. In my part of London, that's what I've noticed....particularly as I was on the cusp of buying a place for 500K in 2008 - now, similar properties are going for 700K!

    Yes, prices were around 650K pre-credit crunch, but I wanted to highlight the remarkable growth since the dip.

  9. you said you couldn't see things changing, that's simply heresay; and I didn't insult you, I made an honest observation

    I am certain, in one dimension, prices where you say ARE booming, even with low volumes, and I am also sure you are right that sentiment supports this

    but your implication that this sentiment is somehow solidly underpinned is fatuous imho - I can easily SEE sentiment turning in any bubble market, at the same it might not, from a bahavoural point of view, it is virtually impossible to predict, which is my point, which is the opposite of what you said when you said 'I can't see it changing' (or to that effect) - the existence of bubble sentiment IMPLIES DIRECTLY that it is in a transient state implicitly liable to change. My truck with you is that you appeared to deny that self-evident fact just because you feel the mass psychology.

    The OP asked if anyone saw London prices booming.

    I have replied to say what I see here in N2. Nothing to do with sentiment. Facts.

    If you want to discuss sentiment/bubble psychology, etc., I'm happy to do so.

    Having said I didn't present any facts, which I then did, you've tacitly acknowledged that you can't refute them and are now attacking a part of my first post that is a separate argument entirely.

    And if I find a post insulting, that's for me to judge, not you.

  10. you stated few facts and even less logic

    Fact: Prices up 20% on two years ago in the area I'm looking. Care to refute that? I'll provide links if you like.

    Fact: There's a definite demographic shift in the type of people moving into the area. Again, do you live here and refute that?

    Facts: We're near the catchment area for Fortismere school (one of the best in North London) and whenever a property comes up in this area it carries a premium. We have Hampstead Heath, Kenwood House and Highgate Woods nearby and are 20 minutes from the West End by tube.

    I'm not denying we're in a bubble here (a bubble upon a bubble than never truly burst, in fact) and the market is still essentially dysfunctional, but it's certain that areas like this that are currently being preferred by those who can't afford the £1m+ houses in surrounding affluent areas and are buying up around here for 700-800K instead. Properties that were going for 500-600k two years ago.

    When we see that change and what the catalyst will be is anyone's guess. IR rises? Austerity measures biting?

    The OP asked if people were seeing London prices booming. I answered with an honest appraisal based on what I am seeing locally.

    If the best you can do is throw insults about, then at least come back with some facts yourself that counter mine.

  11. Very few properties coming on, prices up 20% on 2 years ago.

    That's what I'm seeing round my way...London N2.

    Crazy, but as long as there are cash-rich folk moving in and IRs are low, I can't see it dropping.

    It seems the area has suddenly become trendy (Muswell Hill/Hampstead/Islington overflow) and its proximity to central London, parks, good schools, etc. are very attractive.

  12. ....what is the main factor for these rises in that area....?

    A few things, I think:

    People who can't afford Hampstead/Crouch End have 'discovered' East Finchley and its excellent transport links, good schools, parks, etc..

    The demographic of people living here is changing - it's still families, but more young professional types; possibly those who've sold each of their flats in Islington (bought for a song in 1997) and decided to raise a family somewhere more suburban, but not too far out.

    There's very little coming on in the area, keeping prices high. Anything half-decent goes immediately, encouraging the next vendor to up their price a little...and on it goes.

    Bottom line, I'm getting priced out and it's fecking frustrating...

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