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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by red

  1. Red, I have a question (you were the fellow from North London?).

    If you are waiting for the next step on the property ladder to become more affordable, doesn't that also mean that your place is going to fall as well? At what point do you sell your current place and rent while watching the bigger house to become more affordable?

    My husband thinks we are looking at an even more extreme example of what happened in the early 90's. If that's the case, no place in the country is immune.

    Yes, of course 'my place' will fall in value. Bring it on.

    As for selling to rent while prices fall, I didn't want to get draw on that as it's speculating - just as 'investors' buy while prices rise.

    It's not the issue. The issue is affordable houses.

    A 30% fall across the board will make upsizing cheaper. It's as simple as that.

  2. Didn't someone say it was on the guardian front page? Watched the sky news paper preview this morning and no

    Mention of the guardian so I assumed that was why!

    Yep - they held the paper up last night on the news review (Sky) but didn't mention that particular story. Shame.


    p.s. I like this bit:

    The 3.6% monthly decline in house prices – the biggest reported in 27 years by Halifax – was described as an "absolute shocker" by one economist, and knocked share prices in housebuilders and mortgage lenders.


  3. According to what I've read on HPC.co.uk these indices are manipulated by VIs and can't be trusted - or is that only when they show a rise? :rolleyes:

    Anyway, -3.6% is good news for all of us hoping to buy a reasonably-priced house in the near future. However, it is only one month and we can't expect that every month!

    Nevertheless in the words of Realist Bear, I may just help myself to a biscuit...

    Agreed - we must get carried away with falls like this until we see a general, prolonged trend and more transactions.

    The best thing is that bullish sentiment will have taken a battering today.

    Chocolate bourbon, anyone?

  4. Anyone seeing this yet? September has come and gone so I wonder if we will now see some houses come off the market or will they hold on till the bitter end.

    Depends on if they really need to sell.

    My fear has always been that there aren't enough forced-sellers coming to the market and what we've seen are post-HIPs vendors 'having a go' at silly prices, before withdrawing from the market; that's certainly the story here in N2 where there are now fewer properties in the 3 bed market than at any time since I started tracking them 3 years ago.


  5. Talking to a friend of mine over the weekend, and he went for a mortgage review recently, see how much he could borrow. He's the same salary band as I, so he's on the same as me +/- 2k or so.

    Offered 6.5 times.

    When he said that this seemed a little high, broker said, oh that's fine, we can just call out some additional income streams, and say you're going to let a room (he has no additional income, nor was he planning on letting a room).

    Not convinced 'liar-Loans' have gone anywhere.

    Was it IO or repayment?

  6. This report has just been mentioned on BBC News. They highlighted the delay and the presenter pointed out that even if a buy secures a mortgage they are still paying a high rate despite the low base rate. They then went on to point out that these figures don’t really show where the market is headed. Overall the Beeb’s line was bearish. I think they’re beginning to get it.

    Perhaps it depends on which BBC employee is at the PC at any given moment, publishing / editing the stories:

    One day it might be Charlotte: blond, 27, graduated with 20K debts, no bank of mum & dad to help out, frustrated wannabe FTB...

    And another day it'll be Simon: fat, balding, 49, smug to the t!ts that he bought an investment flat in Clapham 10 years ago, but now slightly panicky...


  7. I'd never heard of the Nationwide, Halifax or Land Registry indices until I joined HPC.

    It certainly didn't influence my decisions to buy or sell property.

    I think this site overestimates their impact.

    And with so few transactions, they're even more meaningless...until you factor how much they're used to spin a picture of a healthy, rising market. Sheeple sentiment is vital and it's frustrating to endure stats like this when we know the market is far from rosy.

  8. According to Alex Jones, and the bloke on his show who sells gold, the answer is a resounding 'yes'.

    Personally, I have no idea, but you can't eat gold, which would be a shame in Jones' worst case scenario.

    You can't print it, either.

    Yes, it's a bubble but I feel it has a way to go yet as people look for safe havens away from cash & stocks (due a correction imho).

    SIlver also worth a look - it has more industrial uses and has been steadily creeping up alongside gold.

    Might be worth looking at mining stocks or ETFs if you want exposure; all this and more on the Gold thread, which is where this will probably be moved to any minute now...

  9. Fivelive just asked 3 estate agents their view on the market - oddly, they all thought the market was buoyant and each was doing OK.

    What a shock - of all the EAs in the country Fivelive just happened to ask the 3 whose business is doing fine. Odd that?

    Now, turkeys for Christmas - I wonder if Fivelive has any views from turkeys on Christmas lunch?

    Yep - just heard that. Might as well have stuck a property ad in the time they conducted those 'interviews'.

    What is the point of debate when all parties have the same vested interest?

    They were all talking cobblers, of course.

    funding holding up market, pent up demand, etc. when they should have taken the opportunity to encourage vendors to price more realistically and up their volumes.

  10. On Monday, property website Rightmove reported that asking prices fell by 1.1% in September. That's the third decline in a row. Meanwhile, in August, gross mortgage lending fell to £11.4bn, down 14% on the month, and the worst total for the month of August seen in ten years.

    On the other hand, it's been a great week for people who like the idea of paying more money for their clothes and food. Cotton hit a new high, at a time when retailers are already warning of rising clothing prices. And of course, we've all heard about surging grain prices.

    Does that sound daft? It is. But it makes no more sense to cheer rising shelter costs than it does to be pleased about rising food or clothing prices.

    And yet, we still can't seem to get our heads around the idea that falling house prices might actually be a good thing.

    Love it.


    Get your comments in...

  11. You are very sensible in planning to get only a 60% LTV mortgage. Well done. This way you will, in a way, hedging your bet on the housing market. And minimising interest costs as well, of course.

    Timing-wise I would probably wait a little longer. But if you really need to by soon, then I think that around February/March could be a good time but only IF you buy from a seller that "got it", and will reduce the price considerably. It may not be the time to chose the ideal house, but the ideal seller!

    Then, with low IRs, you will accumulate equity (or savings) pretty fast, and in a few years you should be able to move to the ideal house, for the ideal price, and with another low LTV mortgage!

    Good luck!

    Yes, ideally I'd rent a house for another year or so, but as I said, we made a decision to buy when we could afford to.

    And this purchase will be a family home - good for the next 20-odd years, hopefully. I don't fancy upsizing again, considering all the costs involved. Eek.

    Thanks for good wishes, too...

  12. Can you tell me how any reasoned logic would force someone into a lifetime of indebtedness just as the second leg down (which many of us knew - and said - was coming) is taking hold?

    Whilst I appreciate your predicament you have to be mental to have waited only to pile in when the market has turned. Can you explain to your missus that if she waits 12 months you might save her £100,000 of debt (20% of average’ish N2 property) which would very possibly equate to £200,000 in repayments over a lifetime. IMO you would be saving MORE than this as property in London is overvalued by way more than 20% and a larger crash will occur.

    Save yourself and your soon to be born child from a lifetime of debt slavery.

    Believe me, I feel the same way - but we made a decision that we would buy when we could afford, not when the market had reached a perceived 'bottom'. We have a big deposit and would get a favourable rate on a 60% LTV mortgage (HSBC currently 2.19%). I'm hoping to find a run-down place to renovate (i.e. cheaper). We missed out on such a place 2 years ago (during the first dip) that I wish I'd bought now. I would have paid off 50K of a 250K loan on it by now with such low rates.

    I just hope we see prices fall to that level again during the next year...

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