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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by red

  1. FWIW, my area (London N2) has recently seen a few more properties come to the market and only this morning, Property Bee flagged up loads of reductions and 'AVAILABLE' where previously 'SSTC' - and I've been sceptical about how quickly we'd see reductions around here (nice North London suburb)...looks like serious sellers are realsiing the recovery is fast turning into a double dip and reducing at last. Fear phase locked in. Denial is well and truly over for all but the dreamers... :)

  2. Forced sellers?

    In the era of no growth and tiny rates of interest forced sellers are a very rare beast indeed.

    There were only 4 houses up for auction in the Hull Mail this week , all with a guide of about 35k , in a city of 300,000 people. You could get 450pcm renting them out , so there will be no shortage of buyers at them prices with money earning nothing on deposit.

    Forced sales aren't simply governed by IRs - public sector jobs cuts and the effects of a double dip recession would do it, in addition to the usual deaths, divorces, upsizes, downsizes and re-locations.

    As for people stampeding to invest in Hull, they might see greater returns in the short term yet their capital investment will be whittled away by price falls. In a few years you'll be buying a whole street for 35k...

  3. +1.5

    These tiny fractional moves are irrelevant. In the London market the margin for error is at least 3% either way.

    TBH I am not going to get excited about the crash until we saw more of the Halifax style -3.6% MOM drops for the country as a whole.

    They won't happen all the time the plates are spinning okay and the £5TR elephant is ignored by our creditors.


    Whilst any negative stats are welcome from a sentiment point of view, we need to see larger, sustained falls for any meaningful crash.

    More transactions from forced sellers is the only way we'll see that.

  4. BTL investor Paul Rooney, who owns 33 BTL properties (with his business partner Keith Widdringham) is furious: "We are being hammered against the wall because banks simply don't want to lend to us.'

    He estimates his BTL portfolio is worth £3.1 million but said "We can't survive like this for ever, and if it keeps going we will have to sell properties, even if the market value is low.........".

    Ah, diddums. Throwing toys out of the pram because the market has turned. And I doubt his portfolio is 'worth' 3.1 mill any more.

    It never ceases to amaze me how BTL investors bleat about any loses they might incur - as if they're immune to the fluctuations of the market.

    If I invest heavily in the stock market and it all goes t1ts up, am I going to blame banks for refusing to lend me any more or seek recompense?

    Crash & burn, baby.

  5. Annoying article - the media yet again perpetuating the myth that falling prices are a bad thing and that the issues are with lack of finance and shortage of 'affordable homes'.

    Boulger spouting his usual [email protected], too.

    The subtitle says it all:

    Low levels of lending amid fears of a double dip leave young people unable to buy

    Aaaaargh! 'Young people' will be perfectly able to buy with 25% deposits (and service loans at higher IRs) once PRICES HAVE FALLEN!!! Jeez, I come over all Eric when I read tripe like this...

  6. Perhaps they realise that trying to re-inflate the bubble and keep it going until the next election would be nothing short of a miracle, not to mention extremely harmful.

    They can't come out and say so openly, but I am sure they favour a slowly deflating market over the next few years... The likelihood, however, is that once the falls get a grip against the backdrop of a double dip economy and there's no fuel left to throw on the fire, we'll get 'Crash II' - the sequel. Bigger and better than before...

  7. So good to read such phrases from the media amidst the usual 'price falls = bad' mantra...


    Some will complain that this puts property even further out of the reach of the poor beleaguered first-time buyer. But I'd argue that it's a sign of how dysfunctional our property market has become that such schemes were seen as a good idea in the first place.
    If, as we believe, the real problem was overly easy credit and low Bank of England rates, then the government should have focused on why its macroeconomic policies were making shelter unaffordable for even the relatively well-off among the population.

    Instead, they took the easy option of tinkering at the edges. And now the concept of 'shared equity' has become just another hurdle getting in the way of property prices falling back to levels that would allow the market to clear.

    The good news is that as pressure mounts for sellers to cut prices, Osborne's cuts might just give the market the nudge it needs to fall back to genuinely affordable levels.
  8. The need for the Government to intervene in the workings of the housing market is obvious.

    Rubbish. The market is working fine. There are plenty of estate agents (so good competition), plenty of buyers and plenty of sellers. It works fine.

    If a seller has three different agents value their house and chooses to go with the highest valuation, and it doesn't sell in 3 months, unless the seller is an idiot, he knows what the problem is. Its his choice. He sets the price at the end of the day.

    Under his proposal I suspect you would end up with fewer, bigger estate agents less competition, bigger commissions, and a generally more imperfect market.


    It's the seller that ultimately sets the price, regardless of how much smoke the EAs blow up their @rses with high valuations to gain instructions.

    If there was an EA 'regulation' to give 'sensible' valuations that didn't meet the seller's expectations, they'd just market the property privately for whatever they thought it was worth.

  9. They are relevent to the delusion of the sellers and to properties we can buy, which is why very little is selling.

    When prices drop and houses sell only then will we see the haliwide stats lower.


    Asking prices are all part of the vendors' mentality and sentiment - when they see that fall alongside Haliwide stats, we'll hopefully see things gather pace...

  10. Mods please could we leave in the HPATE section before moving or even better a sticky.


    I get fed up with phone ins where the guests are dominated with estate agents.

    It must be time for the site owners, mods and us to find a media team to put forward our VI.

    A snapshot below shows the interest on the topic during J Vine radio 2 property phone in today.

    We must have the talent on this forum for phone ins and media articles, where the media have a point of contact.

    The grammar and spelling in my post demonstrate, my skills lie in ticking green and red arrows.

    However willing to do all I can support the new HPC media team.


    Really impressed with Red/Chris on the phone in putting a different and not often voiced slant on our agenda.

    If you are on the above list or anonymous readers and have not introduced yourselves to this site, it must be time.

    Future genrations will ask what did you do to make a home more affordable.

    Thanks - I think it's VITAL that the 'HPC cause' isn't just seen as a way to help FTBs. That's the lazy media's trick: to suggest that there are thousands of whinging, work-shy FTBs waiting for a crash so they can pile in, whereas the rest of us 'hard-working homeowners' have somehow earned the equity in their homes for the past 10-15 years and don't want it taken away.

    Utter [email protected]

    If you were lucky enough to buy 10 years ago but are now looking to upsize, a crash would be massively beneficial - as I said to Jeremy VIne, an extra bedroomed house around here is 100K more. Ridiculous when you consider such properties were selling for 200K 10 years ago.

  11. Well of course, nice houses in nice areas will never drop in price... :lol:

    Well, I live in a 'nice' area and there just isn't enough on the market, unfortunately.

    During the last dip there were DOUBLE the amount of 3 bed properties going and prices fell around 25%. Now, asking prices have clawed their way back up to near 2007 levels and all it takes is for the odd one to sell to some couple with help from mummy & daddy (and there are plenty of trustafarians around here) and all other vendors in the area get a lob-on, feeling their asking prices are justified, and on we go...

    It's incredibly frustrating.

  12. No I don't read it that way. To me the speech is in general very encouraging because it signals that there is no particular appetite for massive intervene if prices start to slide. I think this is best statement you can expect from any incumbent gov - I mean its not as if they can come out and say "yeah a HPC would be great, tough shit if a few million people get bankrupted because its all for the greater long term good" even IF that is privately what they think.

    I agree.

    In order to get 'stable' prices, they need to fall first, but he ain't gonna say that, is he?

  13. Good housing in good areas near good schools / universities will always be in high demand and nothing will change.

    In the areas I look at prices have not fallen since 2007 and have actually shown small increases, issue being is that there is nowhere to build and pretty much every large house has already been chopped up into smaller units.

    People are aspirational and with more going to Uni there will always be strong demand in good areas.

    As for city centre new build tower blocks, old council estates on edges of towns, poor run down areas, things will probably drop, but not all of us want to live in these shite areas.

    Hmm. Just like my area dropped >20% during 2008...one of the nicest London suburbs with excellent schools, tube stations, etc.

    We can all 'demand' but without means to pay it means nothing.

  14. Idiots, they could have chose one of the following correct answers:

    Temporary dip, but expected to rise SOON;

    1. There is pent up demand from cash rich investors.

    2. There is pent up demand from first time buyers with large deposits.

    3. Russian, Saudi and Chinese billionaires want to hoover up properties.

    4. Immigration, UK population is expected to reach 70,000,000 / 70 M I L L I O N

    5. 2012 Olympics...... yadda yadda ya

    You missed out the words 'snapped up' - keep up at the back... <_<

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