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BobBobson

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About BobBobson

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  1. Interesting post. Learned some things i didn't know and amn't going to argue with the rest. However, I wouldn't be so ready to believe all the 'spin' about the last bubble popping due to MtGox DDOS attacks. This 'fact' came from MtGox themselves in order to try and restore some calm amongst the panic. The previous bubble, was in my opinion, a classic pump n dump. Plain and simple, perhaps with DDOS attacks, perhaps not. If this were the case, then it would also be perfectly conceivable that the primary pumpers n dumpers were from the large investment banks. They would have access to the funds to turn the Bitcoin market into their personal slapping bitch, they could make a good profit in this activity, and from an established finance point of view, they would be help in the crippling of a phenomena that could turn into a serious competitor if allowed to run its course unmollested. Some may say 'conspiracy theorist', but I would say, 'go and read some history books'.
  2. As anyone doing a background check on my HPC posts will see, I got into Bitcoins relatively early, starting buying after the first $30 - $3 crash in July 2011. I have since bought hundreds of Bitcoins spending less than £2000 on the lot of them and now find my stash worth over £150K! Absolutely delighted with Bitcoin and my unwittingly shrewd investments. Actually, not really. I did infact get into buying Bitcoins early and hundreds of them have indeed passed through my hands, 99.99% of them purchased at sub £10 or even sub , £5 prices, but every single one of them, I spent on Silk Road. Having stood well back from Bitcoins as the 'bubble' started (I warned people not to touch as they shot through $30 in Dec 2012), after the price popped at around £175, and plopped back down to around £60, I discovered that I had a bit of loose change in my Silk Road account, which had turned around £3.50 into £80.....so that this was the sum total of my gain from the 2nd great Bitcoin bubble. Needless to say, I spent it on Silk Road. Yeah. Digital decentralised crypto-currency is an idea that is not going to go away. Whilst Bitcoin may be the pioneer, who is to say that it will develop into the 'Google' and not the 'Alta Vista' of the digitial currency world? I can already see signs of Bitcoin becoming a bit unwieldy to use. For example, my Bitcoin client has corrupted my block chain. It took me 2 days of leaving my gaming PC connected to the network to correct this....and then it happened again. Last year, this block chain was about 5Gb in size. It is now 30Gb in size. If it continues to grow at this rate, next year it will be 180Gb in size. Now, for something that is projected to be used by people on their mobile devices to pay for Kaffee und Kuchen or whatever, I can see a very obvious problem not to far down the line from now. Perhaps a digital crypto-currency is the future and will even serve as the saviour of mankind, from a Book of Revelations style 'Coming of the Great Beast' who proceeds to enforce his mark being stamped upon peoples heads or arms (microchips) in order for them to buy or sell. But perhaps we are still waiting on a much smarter more versatile version of Bitcoin to come along. Perhaps it already exists, perhaps it is Litecoin, or perhaps it isn't/doesn't. What needs to grow, is the market for real world Bitcoin transactions. However, for this to really occur. Bitcoin needs to stabilise in value. Money that shoots up 50% in value one day and then do 70% the next day is no money at all, but a speculative vehicle. But the speculative value of Bitcoin is based upon its value as a means of exchange for goods n services, whereas its ability to become a reliable means of exchange in any market place, was assisted by speculators creating a market, thus providing liquidity for Btc in the first place, placing a bet that Bitcoin markets would one day flourish. Bitcoin relies on speculative capital. But too much, and the Bitcoin market will cannibalise itself. Everytime a bubble blows up and then pops, those conducted real economic transactions for real word goods n services are likely to get burned. This has happened twice, each time on a scale a magnitude of order larger than the last. I believe that this is intentional and that history will repeat itself until it hits a scale large enough for a tipping point to be found, where Bitcoin sinks into the collective conscious as a way to losing large sums of capital to speculative investors, and the real Bitcoin economy starts to retract. At this point, when Bitcoin is seen as nothing more than a speculative play-toy, too hot to handle for those involved with the economy of real goods n services, then the whole thing will implode beyond recovery. I dont believe the sh1te about MtGox servers being overloaded, thus leading to the last two crashes. I think both the 'bubbles' and the 'pops' were engineered by agents of financial establishment as a means of sabotaging what could become a very potent competitor to their hegemony on global finance. I think this, and I think it will happen again, until that tipping point that I describe above, finally comes. The capital required to do this, would be a drop in the ocean for the big banks, and they could even profit from it just as any big player cna profit from instigating a stampede and then standing back to let all the mugs pile in.
  3. Right throughout these past days when I have been considering the 'what if's' of an actual US default, I have found it reassuring to know that I have a bit of both gold and silver bullion stashed away. Regardless of how poorly it has performed as an investment in recent times (with silver being particularly annoying). Owning a bit of physical precious metal is the ultimate insurance policy and something I think everyone should own. The USD dollar will eventually fail. In the meantime, nations around the globe are making efforts to move away from the USD, but in reality, the USD is probably just too big for a substitute to be found in anything like a timely fashion. Regardless of what happens to gold prices between and now and then will not change the fact that there will come a day when, for a short while, it will count for everything. If the USD turns to dust either through US government default and thus inability to back up value of its bonds and thus the value of the US dollar, the global financial system will fry. Every financial institution and government in the world is hooked on the USD, both directly and indirectly. A deflationary crash caused by a US default for this reason, would be highly unlikely. More likely is a crash through hyperinflation....more and more USD are created, in order that everyone is able to get paid, yet with the government footing the bill and becoming ever increasingly indebted and with the USD becoming increasingly worthless, at least in theory. I say in theory because I just don't think we have seen the price inflation anywhere near matching the quantitative easing around the globe. This can only be because none of the money is being invested in the world of real things. Seems to me that any money not being used simply to shore up gaping holes in the banks balance sheets, is going into paper assets, whose value is only rising because more and more money is chasing those paper assets, as opposed to value rising due to improving production or profit margins in the real economy. In such a situation, gold and silver could stagnate for long time yet. For the record, I do believe that precious metal prices are massively manipulated. Gold in particular is too politically important a metal for this not to be the case. Perhaps it was allowed to inflate to almost $2000 before 'popping' to create negative sentiment towards the asset as we enter further into the agenda of threat of sovereign default and deflationary crashes, with the day saved by yet more quantitative easing. But I, like yourself, believe that ultimately, when the petrodollar system reaches breaking point, gold will revalue itself at multiple times of its present day worth. Question is, do I buy more now, or will I be kicking myself when it trends down to the $1000 dollar support? Silver, I am not so sure about in the long term. Whilst I don't believe that the high is in for the modern era, I doubt that silver will be used as money again like many of the 'silver n guns' advocates like to think, and I see no signs of sovereign nations or financial institutions viewing silver as a 'reserve' asset, as they do gold. Therefore, although I believe there is way more paper silver in the world than real silver bullion to back it up, there is no reason why this game can't be played right until the bitter end, by which point, the real world demand for silver could well be as non-existent as the real world demand for other industrial or luxury raw materials in a non-functioning global economy. That is what I think anyway.
  4. why would it be plummeting? It has already plummeted quite some time ago and it is not as though there has been a mad rush into gold based on concerns of a US government default. Surely if big finance had picked up the scent that the US was about to default, which would slash the value of US bonds, then surely there would be a big rush out of bonds......but into what? Not shares, cos they are all priced USD, and the ones that aren't are priced in currencies backed by USD. Only place to go would be hard assets. just my two cents, although I have been paying attention to this sh1t long enough to understand how counter intuitive it all seems to function.
  5. Is it not the case that if the debt ceiling is not raised, then the US government will indeed default? I am sitting on a boat in the middle of the North Sea and am in half a mind whether I should empty my bank account by transferring most funds into my girlfriends account and getting her to withdraw the lot, in crisp government backed Bank of England notes (as opposed to the Scottish private coorporation credit notes that we have top put up with). This may seem like an over reaction, but one of these days, we are going to all wake up to a 'bank holiday', followed by an evaporation of a few unlucky one's assets and perhaps a bit of 'bail in' action for the rest of us. UK banks have 200 billion USD worth of exposure to US government debt. If the nominal value of these assets shrink very quickly, who knows what kind of mess UK banks will find themsevles in and how the financial world will react....I imagine at the very least, interest rates would sky rocket, which would murder the housing market, which again, could decapitate the banks.
  6. Perhaps I am misunderstanding something here, but if a family with a proven track record of being ahead of the game in terms of decades and even centuries, got themselves out of the gold market, wouldn't this suggest that long term, gold isn't a good bet? I suspect that metals prices could go much lower than they are now, but if/when the global dollar standard fails, all that is going to count for anything are hard assets. With that said, a US default I think would likely precipitate a sharp sell off/deflationary trend in just about everything, initially at least. .....and on this note, wtf are the US congress playing at? Are they going to reach an agreement or am I going to have to empty my bank accounts 'just in case'? Correct me if I am mistaken, but not raising the debt ceiling means that not only can the US government not meet its public spending liabilities, it also means that they basically don't have enough to pay US government bond holders, does it not? (which means massive financial panic)
  7. The price of Bitcoins have remained stable throughout this so far. True, when news first came out there was a very short lived fluctuation in the price of Bitcoin and I am sure that the price will now trend lower for a while due to slightly reduced market for Bitcoins. Silk Road blip will be temporary though, as there are dozens of replacements hovering in background. Yes, so to is the British Pound Sterling worthless, as I could simply print my own bank notes on my girlfriends laser printer. Mind you, the point may be that although a decentralised digital crypto-currency may have a huge future in front of it, that doesn't necessarily mean that Bitcoin is going to be that all pervasive world conquering crypto-currency. I have been buying and spending Bitcoins on SIlk Road for the past couple of years and currently hold about £1500 worth (totally missed out on the Btc bubble though gnnnghhh). Whilst my wallet is just 300 KB in size, the blockchain that I need installed on my hard drive in order to be connected to Bitcoin p2p network, is a whopping 28Gb. Less than a year ago, this blockchain was just around 4Gb. This is something that is clearly going to rapidly increase in size as the Bitcoin universe grows and I suspect there could become a point where it renders the use of Bitcoins as they are intended to be used, completely unwiedy. Thus, this could provide an opening for much 'lighter' alternative that does all the same things as Bitcoin to come in and knock Bitcoin of its perch. Alternative crypto-currencies do exist, of which 'Litecoin' is one, although I must confess that I know little about any of them. With all that said, the fact that the Winklevoss twins are heavily invested in Bitcoin may prove to be an onimous sign of Bitcoin's fate.
  8. Then don't buy physical silver. 20% + dealer premium is an insane amount to be under the moment you make any investment.
  9. Don't buy physical silver from the UK if you are going to have to pay 20% VAT on it. I bought my physical Silver from Germany back in late 2010, when it was just less than $30 per ounce. I paid just 6% VAT on it and carried it in hand luggage back on the plane. There is no additional tax to pay on any consumer good when travelling between borders in the EU. In more recent times, I have invested much more money in silver via Goldmoney.com. Very fast and efficient with regards to jumping out when it feels like the the road ahead is a rough bumpy declining one. From 10K invested in the past 2 years, I have only lost a few hunderd quid over the piece. Had I bought 'hold in yer hand' physical, then I would either still have it (and thus have gotten slaughtered in terms of value lost), or it would have taken much more effort to sell it (especially in declining market) and I would have lost much more than I have done. If you are planning on keeping your metal for the long long term, then get physical, if you are looking to profit on what should/could be a more or less rising market from here on out, then think about using some allocated account service.
  10. don't forget us junkie drug using scum! Thanks to Bitcoin and SilkRoad, me an all my scummy junkie drug crazed mates have been able to get our hands on all kinds of quality gear that we would otherwise never have been able to get. 100's of Bitcoins have passed through my junkie criminal scum hands, mostly when it was sub $10 per Bitcoin. You can imagine my surprise when Bitcoin hit $275, with me only having 3 Bitcoins in a wallet somewhere, and how I pissed my kilt when I realised that had I invested the same amount of 'Worthless Fiat' in Bitcoin as I had in PMs, that I would have been a millionaire, as opposed to more or less 'just the same as before'..... ......bah....it makes me want to go out and pirate music and mp3s so I can put all the proceeds towards funding terrorism.
  11. "Revulsion in forem such as these" Ahem...... And aside from such 'revulsion' as I have highlighted above, this forum subsection has been dead for months. My target is $15 for silver.....when/if the spot price hits that, then I am buying. Market may also force me to buy at higher price if their are strong signals that bear trend has reversed.
  12. I would be very wary of the 'buy in at any price' philosophy of disingenuous snake oil salesmen like Turk or Maloney. I remember Mike Baloney putting out videos trying to calm frantic customers who bought silver coins at $49 and were panic selling after the May 2011 crash at $40. In his most calming tones, he assured his frantic subscribers that in 5 years time $50 silver would seem cheap! Maybe it still will, but I bet most holders of silver would bite someones hands off for $30 silver today, never mind $40. Now that the $22 support has been broken, I would be looking at prices between 17$-20$ as this is the target that a few of the non-bull$hit merchant pundits have stated as being the ultimate bottom. In my guts however, I feel that $15 might be more like it....this makes me feel bad as I have a lot of silver coins which I bought when silver was $28 way back in late 2010. I also bought a lot of physical gold back then also. Back then, I opted for physical coins because it seemed to me like there was a very serious chance of some kind of systemic collapse as there may well be again 5-10 years down the line in the future. I still believe that owning a decent amount of physical coins is a good idea. It just kind of peeves me now, that 3 years down the line, I can actually buy coins for less today than I paid for them back in late 2010. Any precious metals I have bought since then has been via one of the head pm b.s. merchants' (James Turk), GoldMoney allocated pm account business. Whilst I have many times been in profit, the truth is that by the time I have sold the metals, I have landed somewhere on the wrong side of breaking even. Whilst I will always watch the silver/gold market with interest and will probably invest further in future, I am now observing the happenings with Bitcoin with more interest. Had I invested everything that I have put into pm's into Bitcoin, then I would have had an opportunity to leave that market a millionaire by now......and I have a fairly modest stack of pms. Instead of investing in Bitcoins when they cost around $5 per unit, I just used them to buy drugs on Silk Road. The idea of a crypto-currency is simply not going to go away, regardless of the boom, crash, and the following period of bearish stagnation that Bitcoins will continue to experience. I believe that at some point in the future, there will arise a further opporunity with Bitcoin to earn astounding profits, with always the high likliehood of everything going up in smoke at the stroke of a legislative pen or hack attack.
  13. Reasons are abound all over the internet. The extent to which any of them relate to reality or not is quite another matter. Clive Maund, whose website I have linked in the post above has been more or less correctly predicting bearish trends for the past few months that I have been following what he puts out. He tends not to get involved in geo-politics or conspriacy theories, but concentrates purley on the numbers. He reckons that we will be looking at a reversal anytime between now and the next 2-3 weeks. I myself bought in to the tune of a few grand, at $22.5. After watching the waterfall down to $21.5 within 15 minutes of the NYMEX opening last Friday or whenever it was, I sold incurring a ~5% loss in price reduction, and of course a further 4.2% loss due to the dealer fees. Thus, I feel that now that the $22 support level has been broken, that Silver still has a long way to fall.......Silver at $15 wouldn't surprise me.
  14. Clive Maund reckons that the bottom will find itself somewhere between $17-$20. I quote this guy because I have found him to be pretty damn good in the past, especially in the recent bear market past, which has shown up all the perma-bull $500 Silver freaks (the guys that Asheron used to love to endlessly quote) and all their feeble paradigms.
  15. Since nobody has mentioned it here yet, if you are going to buy physical silver, do not buy silver in the UK. Buy it from Germany, Holland, France, etc, where their version of goods tax is just 7%. If you don't happen to be in Germany all that often, then you could for example, buy your bullion with a German company offering good rates and then arrange your own delivery. Because of EU VAT rules, no further tax is payable on goods bought within the EU when they are transported across national borders of other EU countries. Also, if you are going to buy silver.....WAIT. All the best pundits reckon that it has a good bit more to fall before its current bear trend will finally reverse itself. I personally am looking at sub $25 per ounce before I would consider putting anymore money into it, and some are even forecasting sub $20.
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