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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by shermanator

  1. Am I the only one ho reckons that low inflation and the resultant non-erosion of debt poses a real risk to millions? I just don't think IRs are scuppering the housing market; it's debt, unemployment and low growth. Call me heartless, if you wish, but seeing the greed which has infected so many Brits over the past 10 years, I'm not shedding any tears for them now it's all going pear shaped. And yet, some people are still in denial about debt, falling house prices and rising unemployment. This recession/depression will eclipse anything the early 90s threw at the UK.
  2. Who knows what tomorrow's figures will be. I look for a general trend, and that is peaking (last summer) and then falling (just started). There will undoubtably be false rallies on the way down, prompting the experts to assert that the worst is over, blah blah. In the last stock market correction it didn't go down in a straight line, and I don't expect the HPC to be all one way traffic. Remember, it's the latter stages of a bear market that really hurts, ie: a fall of 20% when everyone throws in the towel and loses hope. Something's got to kick start the forced-sellers situation and shake out all these amateur BTLers. I think it's going to be a combination of crippling personal debt made worse by no inflation and unemployment. Interest rates will not scupper it, IMHO.
  3. Is it too much to hope for that the Tory Party just whithers and dies? With the exception of Maggie, their post war performance has been lamentable. Mass non-European immigration, yob culture, a breeding ground for fifth columnists (Moslems), breakdown of the family, rising crime, quality of life gone down the tubes, political correctness, Leftist domination of all the crucial things; I could go on. They are the non-Conservative Party whose record, save that of Maggie, has been one of treachery. Still, if we do enter a severe economic depression, perhaps it will force the decadent, debauched and debased British people to re-evaluate their morals and the way British society has been ruined in the past 20 years. The throwaway society, Keith Joseph termed it, manifesting itself in instant gratification. This squalid country is finished, socially and economically. I was speaking to someone at a Tory 'do' the other day, and he reckoned that Liam Fox could be the dark horse at 14/1. His reasoning being that Davis' campaign wll implode.
  4. Living in Dulwich Village, SE London, it's quite difficult to gauge what's going on as we have relatively few EAs and the properties are always in demand because of the schools; not that Dulwich will be immune from the halving of property prices by 2010! However, I have a shop in Holland Park and regularly stroll up to Notting Hill and pass Foxtons. Loads of youngsters in cheap suits on the phone and the PC. Then rushing around in the company's MINIs. You'd think all was great, wouldn't you? Well it ain't. Speaking to one ex-employee, she said they're doing no deals. Last year, there were simply no properties to sell, now vendors are putting their homes on the market, but getting greedy and not accepting even reasonable offers, so it's all ground to a halt. Then I was driving around Putney and saw a parade of shops where 7 out 10 were EAs; one had already gone bust. Don't be fooled by all this EA waffle about a "soft landing". If things were so good why have Countrywide closed 33 offices and issued two profit warnings? They're in a state of denial as are the greedy vendors who will see the price of their main asset being chipped away by around .5-1% a month. Crash what crash, the 'experts' will say. A crash is only such, AFTER the event.
  5. Good points being made all round. When retailers increase floorspace and consumer spending is either static or falling, that's a recipe for disaster for retailers. NEXT will soon be issuing profit warnings soon, precisely because of the above. **** is going under as I write, and it won't be bought out by anyone with a brain cell. The cut in interst rate hasn't affected a thing and it'll be quite amusing when the BRC and all the property people realise this and clamour for yet another ininterest rate cut, and so and on...... As I've said elsewhere, debt is increasing because there's no inflation. If people haven't got any money, that's that. Someone made the point it all started last December, and they're right. But there are plenty of people around London who reckon that they're going to strike it rich with another 'trendy' bar, resturant, club etc. Oh dear...
  6. "Is it just me, or is high street spending starting to dry up a little?" No, Levy Process. A lot, and it's just the beginning. I wouldn't want to be owning a bar cum restaurant, paying out a fortune in rent and rates when the consumer's all tapped out.
  7. Definitely less traffic in central London. Ken Livingstone has ruined the Capital and it'll only deteriarate further. London is a simply awful place-the armpit of the universe, if you ask me. Also, am I the only one who's noticed people are spending less in the shops and restaurants/bars? London has been pretty flat since the new year, not just down to the summer getaway. Something deeper is at work. I thought the drug dealers simply drove off without paying. The Met are so useless now and crippled by political correctness that they probably regard it as racist to arrest schwarzes.
  8. Hands up who believes these figures from mortgage lenders and other assorted nobodies who wish halt the bubble deflating? If things are so good, why has Coutrywide closed a load of branches and issued 2 profit warnings? Around my area of S.London estate agents are going bust. Falling interest rates are the sign of an ecnomy in trouble, and it won't kick start any sort of revival in the housing market or high street.
  9. Remember, when everyone talking about property prices having crashed it's over. I reckon most of us are ahead of the game. Estate agents are folding, transactions are pathetic but we haven't have the forced seller situation, but the vendors always blink first . A combination of crippling debt, unemployment and looming recession will push the whole the over the edge. These things happen slowly. So when people say to me that I've been predicting a crash and it hasn't occurred, I just say wait. It doesn't happen overnight, but it *has* begun. The prevailing zeitgeist amongst 'experts', propert watchers and economists for a "soft landing", is music to my ears. They're always wrong, and the contrarians generally right. Bubbles of this sort have never had a soft landing, ever! Most of the British public are in denial (as is witnessed by a majority predicting a rise in property prices) and is yet another pre-requisite for the bursting of the bubble. SOFT LANDING? DON'Y YOU BELIEVE IT! The four most dangerous words in investing, according to Sir John Templeton; "It's different this time".
  10. New to the site, but have been predicting the bursting of this particularly ludicrous bubble for quite a while. There are two crucial characteristics of a 'bubble'. Firstly, being that they always overshhot at the top and secondly, they always undershoot at the bottom. Thus I predict that we are in the formative stages of a 50% correction, when probably prices are "only" overvalued by around 35-40%. It's all falling into place rather neatly. The consumer's all tapped out, house prices have stalled before the crash and burn and unemployment is starting to rise, and it's this final factor which will scupper the whole economy. I graduated from university in '03 and very few of my contemporaries are in 'real' jobs, and some are being laid off right now. I was lucky that I could start my own business in bookmaking, but for the ever increasing amount of graduates pouring from HE establishments the future is bleak; unless they happy to use their degree for some employment agency! Furthermore, why is there seeming unanimity that low inflation is a good thing? Inflation erodes debt which considering how much the British consumer has spent over the past 8 years, would seem a good thing! No, we're heading for the worst thing of all *DEFLATION*. An era of low interest rates, low inflation, depressed asset prices, mass unemployment, general malaise etc awaits us. I believe we're already witnessing it. It'll be like Japan all over again and will condemn us to the worst depression since the 30s. So, though house prices have undoubtably come off their peak, IMHO there's a whole lot further to go, so just sit back and watch these greedy property folks, who've been making hay for too long, lose all their money. The amount of greed has been in excess of anything in the 80s. I'm renting and am taking great joy in seeing the slow deflation of the bubble in London, which will envelop the UK. This ain't the end, it's just the beginning.
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