shermanator

Well, that Swedish girl had the right idea. She wants to move permanently to her home-land. If it wasn't for the earning power of the UK very few people would choose to live here. Britain's a cesspit and no place to bring up a family.

I think we're in the early stages of one NOW. Also the fallout from this decade of excess is going to dwarf the hardship of the early 90s.

Perhaps we can rename the website 'High Street Crash', as this certainly seems to be happening more rapidly than a 'HPC'.

Yes, I think so. When MFI goes it will shock quite a lot of the masses. Not because huge amounts shopped there, but because of brand recognition. Bit like when Queensway Carpets went under in 1990.

I think when the history books are written, 2006 will be seen as a 'down year'. 2004 - Up but peaked in around August 2005 - Down fractionally (-2) 2006 - Down moderately (-5) 2007 - Down significantly (-15) 2008 - Down Rampantly (-25) My time-scale refers to Greater London, BTW. From peak to trough, the 'average' property I think will halve in value. Some of us may be a little despondant at the seemingly slow pace of the HPC but it's actually following good form, not least in the case of "sucker rallies" and bears turning into bulls. Also, great progress has been made. In a little over a year HPI went from over 20% to virtually nothing. I've had a few moments of self-doubt but it's all falling into place rather nicely.

Yep, I believe we are in a recession. It looks like one, particularly consumer spending, and it smells like one (ie the fear which is gripping families). I was rung up by my mechanic on Friday. He said the car was due for its service. I knew this was a load of nonsense as I had the whole lot done in November and cost a small fortune. I said, "are you sure, I think I had a service in November". He said he'd double check his records again. Then came back on the line and blatantly lied, saying the last service was in July. I told him he was a liar and he wouldn't be getting any more custom from me, ever! Now, I'm wondering whether he was just trying to take me for a few quid thinking I'd forgotten or whether he's hard up. P.S. Last month's credit card bill was only £100. Haven't been to a restaurant all year. Not going abroad this summer. Just saving every penny and watching these greedy retailers and over-indebted consumers bleed each other dry. SOLID ENTERTAINMENT!

....not if you want a cheap LCD, though.

Radio 5 is generally very poor, though good for sport. For some reason whenever I listen to R5, I immediately think of Birmingham. Don't know why, perhaps the two are subconsciencely linked?

Whenever anyone say "renting is dead money" I say "well, so is interest". Needless to say, the vast majority don't grasp the nettle. Remember, nobody ever lost money under-estimating the moronic tendencies of the public.

I liked the bit where he said it was unacceptable that Iran develop a nuclear capability. Should all be kicking off there fairly soon; if the US do nothing, Israel will strike and the whole tinderbox will ignite. The only way out of this is for Iran's nutty President to be overthrown by the people, otherwise........

A very wise observation. I think there are 3 characteristics of a bubble; 1. I goes on longer than most imagine 2. I sucks in every last bit of air (money) it can 3. Every bear throws in the towel (as Willing said). All told, I still expect falls. 2006 is the time.

Merryn Somerset Webb's record isn't outstanding. She has been the ultimate doom and gloom merchant for years. HPC inevitable, equities are overvalued, Dow will hit 5,500 etc etc. She's been correct on gold and I'll give her half a tick for oil but otherwise very poor. I used to subscribe to Moneyweek but thought their relentless trashing of equities in '03 and '04 was ludicrous. Indeed, if you'd followed their advice to sell shares, huge profits could have been foregone. James Ferguson speaks sense though. I met her once at some breakfast meeting and she isn't that much of a looker. Annuziatta Rees-Mogg, deputy editor, is quite a looker OTOH. BTW, best equity analyst I've come across is Ken Fisher.

Sorry to reprt the same in Dulwich. Nice Edwardian semis going very quickly, nothing lingering. One house had a for sale sign on a Monday and by the Saturday, Sold. Unbelievable. It appears even more buoyant than 2000. However, the good news. Crappy flats, often Victorian conversions, aren't shifting at all. One road in Crystal Palace/Penge is like a forest of for sale/to let signs. Conclusion - Well off families are buying nice houses in good areas.

What about if they just leave IRs unchanged for the whole year? Another year wasted waiting for something to give. No sterling crash, HPI at 15%, no consumer crash, no withdrawl of credit. It's Groundhog day. For 2006, see '05, '04, 03, 02, 01, 00, '99, '98, '97 -

I just can't see the great financial institutions witholding the punchbowl because they know what would happen if they did. Worlwide depression. They're not fools, they know that the '29 crash was caused by a small number of wealthy bankers withdrawing credit. This literally could go on indefinitely. The British consumer has over a trillion pounds of debt. So what! There's no law that says it gets to a certain point and the whole things crashes. We could get to 10, 100, 1000 trillion, so long as the banks keep lending and the money supply grows. The problem with the likes of Bill Bonner over at 'the daily reckoning' is that what he's saying is right, logical and rational BUT markets are not like that. If it all tanks in 20 years should we all be hailing Bill Bonner for being a stopped clock? No, because his timing is dreadful. As long as we are willing to borrow and the banks are willing to lend, this market is bullet-proof, despite what the rational charts and historical analysis suggest.

Personally, I'm not sure whether it will ever end. Personal debt, a slowdown in retail, creeping unemployment, rising taxes etc etc etc. Doesn't seem to matter a fig, I'm afraid. There are only two things which are going to sink the market (forget everything else); 1. Rising interest rates or 2. A withdrawl of credit It's been a hell of the party over the past 10 years and it could go on for some time. In about November I put forward a 'wild card' option that HPI could be 20% in '06. Purely on the contrarian basis that no one forecast it. Unfortunately it looks as though it could be the case.

Will MFI be with us next year? Doubt it. Bear trader Simon Caukwell, aka Evil Knevil, stands to make a lot of money if/when they go under.

I just can't believe it. Got pummelled by my staff at work today who know my bearish views. Perhaps housing transactions will just take place amongst a relatively small group of people who have managed to get on the housing ladder and the only FTBs will be those who inherit from parants dying. I'm totally fed up and just feel like throwing in the towel.

MONEY?

Interesting. An article in last week's Investor's Chronicle was attempting to link IRs to the money supply. If this relationship holds firm, IRs will reach at least 6.75% by 2008. Though I've been worrying about deflation, I now reckon inflation will rear its head and interst rates will rise. The gold market certainly thinks so.

[it was real VI crap - because the husband said house prices go up 25% per anum! Funny how when i switched to ITV there was a barrett homes advert on 25% P.A.!!!!! That's funny, according to the Halifax figures house prices in Ashford fell by 1% last year. The husband obviously isn't very good at figures, is he. That husband and wife team are going to be in serious trouble. As she herself said, because they own so much property in a small area they can't dump it on the market before the really big falls. Call be cruel, but I'll feel very pleased watching people like this crash and burn.

Southwark up 21%. Apparantly Dulwich is popular with young families...... Still don't reckon my rented place has appreciated by that much though. Probably fallen by 5%

The FTSE is way overvalued compared to the DOW (fair value now 5,400). I've got a whole load of cash waiting to be invested, but not at these levels. 70 points is madness!

Well, I've thought for some time now that the Federal Reserve will hyper-inflate their way out of this unprecedented debt mountain to avoid deflation. But for this to happen wages have to rise, which they are patently not and will not, considering the dire unemployment figures. Inflation is rearing its head on certain things, most notably energy but wage settlements are no way keeping pace with this. This may mean the 'figures' look good but people are inevitably going to spend less, as is happening. As for the VIs not letting a housing crash happen - Call me a blind believer in Capitalism, but the market mechanism is far more powerful than governments, banks, property folks. So the market will ALWAYS find its own level no matter any manipulations, sooner or later. To those who believe "it's different this time"; don't you believe it. The characteristics of a bubble such as greed and fear are in-built within human beings and will always be there. Tulipmania, South Sea, Tech etc etc are different examples of the same human impulses.