shermanator

Look, the great elephant in the room that no one, from the elite to HPC greed merchants, wishes to recognise is that unlike in the early 90s the banks are straight bust. The government have set the UK on a path of zombie banks, which was supported by the majority of folks on this forum. Fair enough, they got their wish but don't go hurrumphing that the banks ain't lending even with your perfect credit record. The worse the better I say. Your graphs merely illustrate the new normal; depressed prices, depressed approvals running at less than half pre-peak. I'm lovin' deflation....if only because the elite/banksters crave inflation.

Yes some interesting graphs there, thanks. I've forwarded them to a few folks in my e-circle who reckon things will bounce back. This is all looking like credit contraction (because the banks are bust) leading to a prolonged period of deflation, despite how many rounds of QE are initiated. Also it supports my contention that the crash is only good for cash buyers - the banks ain't lending simples. A real let down for all those HPC hypocrites who've been praying for a crash, got it but won't be able to take advantage like the mid 90s crowd. Still these people got their wish by supporting the bail outs so they thought they could borrow round about now - useful idiots. The banks should been allowed to fail end of.

I suggested this to ex Tory MP and Bankster Howard Flight a year ago and he accused me of not living in the real world. Oh, like the real world that you live in 'debt is wealth' and casino investment banks I said? What a total moron.

Perhaps when the 'Koalishon' get into serious trouble (ie poll numbers in the 20s) they'll launch a massive criminal investigation into the Banksters and make them personally bankrupt, so as to curry favour with the electorate. Let's hope so

Fully agree. Inflation (apart from fuel) is like the dog that didn't bark in the night. Despite predictions about groceries becoming more expemsive, most stuff is on some kind of special offer and clothing retailers are taking the hit of higher input costs because their pricing power is zilch. Oh yes, then there's wages which are going nowhere for a very long time. What a lot of folks don't grasp is that the global elite are doing everything they can to stoke inflation but the forces of deflation are just too strong. Wait til China blows later this year or next - $20pb

Too true but the likes of the 'Robbie and Vinnie' (they liked those names because it was gangsterish apparently) getting early alarms from the SFO is a start. Make no mistake, despite the best efforts of the elite to brush antipathy to Banksters under the rug it just isn't going away. That's why I'm convinced Banksters awarding themselves recent bonuses have totally taken their finger off the pulse of the people and it'll come back to bite them, perhaps even retrospectively in the cases of thieves like Goodwin, Applegarth and Hornby. Here in le belle France, they'd be put on trial and their assets seized while their bankrupt 'banks' would be officially nationalised. When are the British going to wake up?

Depends how leveraged the Candy's are my guess is very so they'll soon be in big trouble like the Tchenguiz and Simon Halabi - who even though a bankrupt still has a Bentley with personalised numberplate natch. I knew the Tchenguiz would go bust but I'm surprised they've done anything criminal, perhaps we're beginning to see (at long last) the elite get their just desserts. Never forget that most so-called 'billionaires' carry eye watering amounts of debt and leverage - that's why the elite love inflation so much, which is why deflation will be all the sweeter for us.

Banksters are total disgrace but they get away with it because the English are so moronic and are scared easily. Here in France they'd have messrs Goodwin, Applegarth and Hornby on trial for grand fraud and theft but in the good 'ol UK they're apparantly 'vital' to the economy. What a load of BS. Oh, another thing. All those Bankster apologists who say 'Barclays avoided a handout so can do as they please' - are you totally thick! They only survive because Brown &co instigated QE, the SLS and the deposit guarantee, without those measures Barclays would fold and the Sheikhs would never have invested, which would be a moment of great joy. One can only hope that these sickening bonuses for failure are the final act of hubris before banks are nationalised and Banksters are locked up at HMP.

The process of creative destruction hasn't taken place - until and unless that occurs you can forget about inflation. Who in this globalised world has pricing power? Hardly anyone and especially not the 'high street'. So money supply is irrelevent - especially if it's all being shovelled into Bonds, which it is now. Welcome to the low yield reality.

Too true. The Anglo Saxon economies have begun a Japanese death deflation spiral, I couldn't care less how many QE rounds the Fed instigate - the end result is inevitable. For all those inflationistas, answer me one thing - if inflation is rampant why aren't wages rising? If I recall wage inflation in the 70s was running at 15%. Are you a deflationista Interestrateripoff?

Why do you think Philip Green merged BHS into the better performing Arcadia (there are synergies of course) - it's as your insiders correctly report BHS is losing money like there's no tomorow but it can now be masked. They own few freeholds so the business is practically worthless and I'll be interested to see how Topshop is performing now the retail recession is finally here. To think that Allan Leighton got a consortium together in 2004 that offered Green £400m for BHS - lucky escape methinks.

Have any of you guys driven to Philadelphia? To say I had the shock of my life would be an understatement. Before you reached the centre I drove through a vast rundown neighbourhood where everyone was black, children were running about barefoot and adults were sitting on steps (the temp was over 100 and very humid) - if a martian had come down from space they'd have said you were in Africa not 'the richest nation on earth'. RB inadevertently put his finger on it - if you're wealthy the US is great, if not forget it. Give me France or Germany any day of the week. Oh and the food is plentiful but generally rubbish processed stuff which is why there's such an obesity problem.

Yeah I love my Hilfiger jeans - used to be very loyal to Levis but didn't seem to last long. Lots of girls now wear £250 designer jeans. As for Superdry - they embody everything I loathe about modern Britain. Middle aged caucasian media types re-living their student days in grunge which costs a fortune, beer (or should that be Chianti and polenta) belly sticking out while they push some screaming kid around in a £500 bugaboo. They all vote Labour too, I think they're called urban guerillas or something. Hah :angry:

It's a very interesting broad sweep of the relative decline of Britain over the past 100 years. I think the elite only have one option left to get out of the mess and that's more debt. Unlike Germany, manufacturing only accounts for 13% of the economy so that avenue's a non-starter. I saw some very interesting migration/demographic figures last year which showed only two countries in the world have a growing Jewish population - Germany and Australia. That's where I'd be putting my chips now but Australia will be severely hit when China implode later this year into prolonged deflation, so a one way sqeezeyjet ticket to Berlin may be the best bet.

So you mean the money is still out there because it's been securitised and those nice Banksters are busy trading it between themselves? Oh dear

I predict the muppets at the MPC may raise rates by .25% but quickly reversed it when the reality of the recession hits home. Manufacturing is totally irrelevent in today's Britain of money-shufflers, it's all about financial services and shopping and those two ain't looking good if anecdotal evidence from JLP and Primark are anything to go by. Sick man of Europe once again (even Spain is growing). That's what happens when you don't make anything like the Germans or French. As an aside, think we're seeing UK becoming like Japan's lost decade. Sterling strong, IRs never rising, housing market never recovers (shame for all those HPCers praying for a late 90s take off *), mired in debt etc. *=

Fully agree with your post. Before the ludicrous bailing out banksters (about £1.2tn and counting) I was very careful to pay off debts. As it transpired I got into difficulty just as Brown was bailing out the Banksters, so thought f*** the lot of them and applied for a DRO - so that debt is written off not "circulating in the economy" as another poster suggests. A little heads up; when you inform the unsecured lender you're not going to pay the money back they suddenly become friendly and offer to settle for a mich lower amount. My advice; The Banksters have got away with tens of billions (which most HPCers regard as a necessary evil haha) so if you've got the access to unsecured loans, load up big time and default - CCs, personal loans, the whole lot for as much as you can. The problem is most have a Daily Mail puritan attitude and get worried by empty threats. My views was/is - the elite are clearing the tills, why not the plebs too? As it happens, I'm now living in France now where CCs are pretty rare, personal loans really rare without security and cheques are very much in vogue and treated like cash; so don't bounce cheques as you'll be called in to see your old school bank manager for a dressing down. So pleased to be out of the Anglo-Saxon 'debt is wealth' psyche that pervades Britain now.

But yet the population of the UK is shooting upwards - I wonder why? Could it be third world immigration and the immigrant baby boom taking place? They'll be here for all those millions of jobs being created, oh........ Only 3 more days til I'm in sunny France. Even if house prices dropped by another 50% I wouldn't want to stay in this dump anyway. Tick tock tick tock

HB has got completely out of control but why does he think it's OK for banksters to commit fraud? New England? What a load of tosh.

Agreed. The £1.2trn bail out for bust banks and ongoing efforts to keep asset prices high for the elite has crippled the Anglo-Saxon world, leaving it in a zombie like twilight zone. For what it's worth I think the elite are playing a very dangerous game as public anger at bonuses on made up profits and ever widening inequality refuses to go away. Instead of cutting services and benefits for the poor, why not nationalise the entire banking system and sell off the assets - such as they are; that is the ultimate endgame? 30 years ago the Unions tried to hold Britain ransom, now the banksters are doing exactly the same. Question is will Eton Dave take them on or continue to shovel our money into their wallets? :angry:

Definitely an ongoing recession for the UK - now officially the 'sick man of Europe' * after even Spain grew in the last quarter. Neatly fits into my theory that the UK will endure a lost decade of anaemic growth and deflation, leading to strong Sterling a la the Yen. *

Exactly. John Lewis sales last week were 1.1% higher but add VAT at 2.5% and other inflationary pressures then sales volume were down. If there's one thing the elite hate it's deflation, but with mystic Merv watching pay rises like a hawk (bar banksters), I doubt there'll be any retail bonanza for the UK.

All a very interesting insight into casino 'banking'. All this wouldn't matter a jot if the government had the chutzpah (St. Vince excluded) to break up the banks into retail and trading - like the situation before 1996 I think. The trading side would be permitted to go bust thus resisting the need for loser bail-outs. One has to wonder why the banksters are resistant to this wholly sensible change. Could it be that they like gambling with other people's money and when it all goes horribly wrong blackmail the sheeple again? :angry: P.S. Guess who's bankrolling Dave & co

Absolutely agree with your observations. Make no mistake, London is not immune from the recession and QE has kept shops afloat in the West End over the past two years but it's nearly worn off now. My parents saw 3 restaurants down the Fulham Road closed since Xmas.....quick Merv better get QE2 launched, we can't have your elite and retail economy collapsing now can we

Merv's been quite upfront about it - food and fuel inflation running at 10% he's not concerned about, it's just wage inflation for non-banksters that worries the elite. Considering unemployment is increasing, how many workers will be demanding inflation busting pay rises? Exactly. Given the precarious nature people's personal finances, I reckon firms can just freeze wages and there'll be barely a murmur of discontent. One reason why I think deflation will be coming to the UK soon (bar non-discretionary items).